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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.84%, Hang Seng (0.10%), Shanghai Composite +0.00% as of 04:10 ET

Jun 01 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities finished mixed Thursday as optimism over passage of the debt ceiling bill in the US faded. Greater China markets were higher but well off their peaks by the close as another wave of selling began in the afternoon session, Hang Seng even finished slightly lower. South Korea and Taiwan were both lower. Australia rose slightly, India giving up early gains to trade flat, Southeast Asia mixed. Japan posted another strong day. US futures mixed, Europe opened with strong gains. US dollar higher. Treasury yields higher across tenors. Crude and industrial metals better bid, precious metals lower.

    • Early optimism following the passage of the US debt ceiling bill in the House of Representatives and better-than-expected Caixin PMIs faded quickly in the afternoon albeit on no substantive newsflow. A lackluster handover from Wall Street on mixed messages: strong JOLTS job data set in contrast to dovish Fed speak with the latter winning out and sending Fed Fund Futures back to levels that indicate market expectations of 'no change' to rates later this month. Hong Kong again ending close to bear-market territory with a handful of articles today highlighting disappointing SOE profits, attractive alternative Asian assets, and yield differentials with the US as reasons for China's market underperformance. Nevertheless, some positive economic news today with the Caixin manufacturing PMI showing May factory activity unexpectedly expanded, contrasting with the official gauge that showed manufacturing activity falling the most since December.

    • Other regional PMIs showed ongoing division between the contracting north Asia manufacturing base and the still expanding ASEAN region, although South Korea showed hints of a deceleration in declines. South Korean exports also contracted at slowest pace since October. Japan capex spending growth topped forecasts, boding well for Q1 GDP revisions. Japan final PMI confirmed factory activity expanded for first time in seven months. India's Q4 GDP growth was better than expected but economists warned risks to the economy hadn't gone away.

    • Apollo and KKR said to be among the bidders for Fujitsu's (6702.JP) 50% stake in Shinko Electric Industries. Tokyo Gas (9531.JP) is to invest ¥30B over three years into synthetic methane and hydrogen R&D. JD.com (9618.HK) said the number of brands participating in its shopping festival and that sold CNY100M in its first ten minutes rose 23% y/y. China Southern Airlines (1055.HK) launched a private A and H Share placement to raise up to HK$2.9B and CNY17.5B.

  • Digest:

    • Global investors backing away from China SOE plays:

      • Nikkei discussed how international investors are lightening positions in China SOEs as recent losses disappointed expectations this segment would provide the best returns following the relaxation of Covid restrictions. Earlier performance was positive, though weak macro data has prompted broader market weakness. Story noted Hang Seng China Central SOE's Index lost 9.9% from 8-May to month-end while Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 8.9%. YTD returns still positive for SOEs, while China Enterprise was down 8.1%. Cited HSBC Asia equity strategy suggesting fund managers aimed for 'overweight' positions in China at the start of the year but have since rotated to other Asian markets. Article also noted SOEs were boosted by high dividend payments and comments from China's top securities watchdog urging investors to employ "a valuation system with Chinese characteristics." Latter phrasing was introduced by CSRC chairman Yi Huiman on 21-Nov and interpreted as an implicit call to buy SOEs, though business leaders are reluctant to offer public interpretations.

    • Japan Q1 MOF survey capex strength bodes well for GDP revisions:

      • MOF corporate survey capital spending grew 11.0% y/y in Q1, above consensus 6.0% and follows 7.7% in the previous quarter. Ex-software series also accelerated notably to 10.0% from 6.3%. Compares favorably with first preliminary GDP estimates which saw nominal capex expanding 7.7% y/y in Q1 following 7.1% in Q4. Strength was broadly based across manufacturers (IT/auto/business equipment) and nonmanufacturers (services, logistics, real estate). Aggregate current profits rebounded 4.3% from a 2.8% decline in Q4 on the back of nonmanufacturing growth (IT, construction). Top-line sales growth remained generally steady and gross margins improved. Attention turns to GDP revisions due 8-Jun. Recall first print of 1.6% q/q saar was better than expected, though after consensus was lowered from ~1.6% shortly before the data release. Near term growth profile largely shaped by post-Covid recovery dynamics with impetus expected to be front-loaded in H1 and growth reverting to a ~1% trend thereafter.

    • South Korea factory output and export data hints worst of slowdown could be over:

      • South Korea S&P Global PMI reflected continued slowdown in country's manufacturing output but hinted at slowing pace of decline. Two largest components, new order output and production, contracted at sharper rate from April on domestic, global economic weakness. However, decline rate in forward-looking export new orders softest in 15-month falling sequence. Output prices and employment levels also positive, supply chains improved, production outlook strengthened to ten-month high. Overall May PMI reading 48.4 from 48.1, albeit its 11th consecutive monthly deterioration. Separate data from Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy showed country's May exports fell 15.2% to $52.24B, eighth consecutive month of decline but less than -16.3% forecast; chip exports fell 36.2% on falling demand, lower prices. Imports fell 14% y/y to $54.34B as energy imports fell 20.6% (Yonhap). Seasonally adjusted exports fell 9.3% y/y, smallest such decline since Oct-22 (Bloomberg).

    • May PMIs show manufacturing strength continues to diverge in north and south Asia:

      • S&P Global PMI readings for May showed continuing trend of contraction in northern emerging Asia countries versus expansion in south although pace of change slowing. Taiwan saw business conditions across manufacturing sector deteriorate sharply, steepest reductions in output and total new business YTD on weaker customer demand; buying activity, inventories and staffing levels all fell. Overall PMI fell to 44.3 from 47.1. South Korea PMI showed contraction again but improved to 48.4 from 48.1. Thailand saw demand accelerate at fastest rate on record, backlogs increased, employment rose, although rate of acceleration slowed and business confidence fell amid political outlook concerns; May PMI at 58.2 from record 60.4 in April. Philippines showed further improvement in operating conditions, PMI rose to 52.2 from 51.4. Malaysia PMI 47.8 from 48.8 in April, S&P economist said soft patch may last for some months on weak demand. Vietnam contracted further at 45.3 from 46.7 in April.

    • RBA rate hike odds continue to firm:

      • Repricing of the RBA rate path continues with futures now pricing in 100% chance of a rate increase by August (vs zero probability in mid-May). Hawkish expectations driven in large part by recent data surprising to the upside. Focus mostly on hotter-than-expected April CPI, which was indicative of inflation stickiness (particularly in rents and holiday travel). Australian housing market rebounding quicker than expected with home values in May rising at double pace of preceding months. There were hawkish takeaways from RBA Governor Lowe's testimony on Wednesday, in which he warned risk of unit labor cost growth fueling inflation. Ties into Fair Work Commission's minimum wage decision on Friday, which is expected to result in an inflation-matching minimum wage hike and heighten RBA concerns about risk of a wage-price spiral. Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics now expect consecutive RBA rate hikes in June and July, taking the cash rate to 4.35%. UBS also noted June now a 'live' meeting.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +6.5% 6702.JP (Fujitsu): Apollo, KKR reportedly among potential bidders for Fujitsu's 50% stake in Shinko Electric Industries

      • +3.4% 9618.HK (JD.com): JD's 618 shopping festival reportedly started 20:00 local on 31-May and number of brands reaching sales of CNY100M in first 10 minutes rose by +23% y/y

      • +1.8% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): new battery plant, which is under construction, will receive additional $2.1B investment to support company's drive toward carbon neutrality

      • +1.8% 3382.JP (Seven & i): ValueAct renews call for change at Seven & i

      • +1.7% 9531.JP (Tokyo Gas Co.): to invest ¥30B over three years for synthetic methane and hydrogen R&D

      • +1.2% 1060.HK (Alibaba Pictures Group): reports FY net income attributable (CNY291.1M) vs guidance (CNY300.0M)

      • +0.7% 500520.IN (Mahindra & Mahindra): sells 30% stake in Mahindra Susten to Ontario Teachers' for INR23.71B ($300M) equity value

      • +0.5% MPI.PM (Metro Pacific Investments): tender offer commencement will be delayed

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -6.4% 1055.HK (China Southern Airlines): proposes private A/H-share placement to raise up to CNY17.5B and HK$2.9B

      • -1.8% 1310.HK (HKBN Ltd.): HKBN sale reportedly stalls amid disagreement over valuation with prospective buyers

      • -0.3% 4755.JP (Rakuten Group): reportedly to sell its 47% stake in Cabify for over €500M

      • -0.0% OSP.TB (Osotspa Public): divests 5.85% ownership in Uni.Charm (Thailand) to Unicharm Corporation for THB3B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China May

        • Caixin manufacturing PMI 50.9 vs consensus 49.5 and 49.5 in prior month

      • Japan

        • Q1 MOF corporate survey capex +11.0% y/y vs consensus +6.0% and +7.7% in prior quarter

        • May final manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs preliminary 50.8 and 49.5 in prior month

      • Australia Q1

        • Q1 private capital expenditure +2.4% q/q vs consensus +1.0% and +2.2% in Q4

      • South Korea May

        • Trade Balance ($2.1B) versus consensus ($2.7B) and ($2.7B) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 260.13 or +0.84% to 31148.01

      • Hang Seng: (17.36) or (0.10%) to 18216.91

      • Shanghai Composite: 0.07 or +0.00% to 3204.63

      • Shenzhen Composite: 9.05 or +0.45% to 2012.23

      • ASX200: 19.50 or +0.27% to 7110.80

      • KOSPI: (7.95) or (0.31%) to 2569.17

      • SENSEX: 50.95 or +0.08% to 62673.19

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.47 or +0.33% to 139.8380

      • $-KRW: +1.18 or +0.09% to 1322.1300

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.12%) to 0.6491

      • $-INR: (0.20) or (0.24%) to 82.4840

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.11% to 7.1196

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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