Jun 05 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended higher Monday. Nikkei closed 2.2% higher and above the 32K mark for the first time since July 1990. Hang Seng also higher for a second day but some mainland boards were softer. Australia closed with a gain. South Korea and Taiwan with fresh advances, Southeast Asia and India also positive. US futures mixed, Europe modestly higher at the open. US dollar slightly stronger, offshore yuan weakened. US Treasury yields higher across tenors. Crude higher on Saudi production cut but off peaks. Industrial metal prices mixed, precious metals lower.
Asia equity markets continued the trend set Friday with the Hang Seng extending gains as property and banking stocks rose on reports Beijing was readying a package of support for property and critical industry sectors. Energy stocks were favored on mainland bourses as crude prices rose. Japan set a fresh multi-decade high, and technology-driven bourses outperformed others. Currency markets followed a different path with weakness in the yen and AUD notable on bets the Fed could keep rates higher for longer while the yuan weakened past 7.2 per dollar on renewed market speculation the PBOC could cut rates to boost the economy.
Crude and energy stocks stronger after Saudi Arabia announced a unilateral crude output cut of 1M bpd in July and flagged an extension if it was necessary. China regulators working on a new round of property market support measures but some economists clinging to expectations of further cuts to RRR and/or interest rates despite favored view Beijing will continue more targeted approach.
China May Caixin Services PMI expanded at quicker-than-expected pace. Japan services activity expanded at record pace in May, though final PMI softer than preliminary read. Positive implications for Australia Q1 GDP from a larger-than-expected inventory rebuild. Australian job advertisements little changed for a second month. Singapore retail sales grew y/y but the pace of growth slowed notably. India's Service PMI fell to 61.2 in May as its composite PMI stayed near 13-year highs. Indonesia inflation fell to 12M low of 4% last month, tourist arrivals climbed more than 275% in April.
Kioxia, 40% owned by Toshiba Corp(6502.JP) and Western Digital (WDC) are said to be in 'detailed' merger discussions that will include a joint venture to integrate their production and sales operations. Nidec (6594.JP) will investigate why it paid shareholders more in dividends than intended, and exceeded share buyback distributable amount. SembCorp Industries (U96.SP) said it is considering the possible divestment of its waste management business.
Digest:
Saudis cut oil output 1M bpd as OPEC+ refrains from adding to reductions:
OPEC+ statement only extended existing production agreements through 2024-end and revealed no major changes to output schedules. However, press reported Saudi Arabia announced a unilateral 1M bpd cut in July (Bloomberg, Reuters). Move was seen as a concession to offset no added commitments from Russia, while UAE secured a higher quota for 2024. Comes at the cost of Saudi reduced market share as new output level of ~9M bpd would be the lowest since June 2021. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said next month's additional cut could be extended, but the Saudis will keep the market "in suspense" about whether this will happen. Analysts said Sunday's OPEC+ decision sent a clear signal the group was willing to support prices and attempt to thwart speculators. Deal announcement was delayed by several hours as members haggled over revision to individual baselines and African nations were said to be the strongest holdouts.
China Caixin services PMI rebounds:
Caixin services PMI was 57.1 in May, above consensus 55.2 and follows 56.4 in the previous month. Data in expansion for fifth straight month, also second sharpest rate since Nov-20 (only below 57.8 in Mar-23), indicating a further strong recovery in China's services activity. Coincided with steeper increase in total new orders and sustained rise in new export business since lifting of Covid restrictions. Companies expanded staffing levels for fifth successive month, though pace of job creation eased to softest over this period. Capacity pressure persisted with a sustained increase in backlogs. Input costs also continued to rise, which led service providers to hike fees by highest rate since Feb-22. Firms remained upbeat over next 12 months but overall confidence dipped to a five-month low. Follows a rebound of Caixin manufacturing PMI back to 50.9 in May. Composite PMI rose to 55.6, highest since 2021.
China considers new property support package to boost economy:
Bloomberg reported Beijing putting together basket of measures to support its property sector and boost economy after previous initiatives failed to provide hoped-for rebound. Among measures being considered, reducing down-payments in some cities' non-core neighborhoods, lowering agent commissions on transactions, further relaxing restrictions for residential purchases. Said government would fine tune, extend policies laid out in 16-point rescue plan launched in 2022, which included loosening down-payment requirements and addressing liquidity problems. Bloomberg also noted Friday officials announced support package to boost EV sector while tax breaks for high-end manufacturing companies also planned. Analysts said Beijing wants to target specific sectors that need a boost however broader stimulus including RRR cut and acceleration in infrastructure spending could also come through in coming weeks. An interest rate cut unlikely at this point, especially as US Fed likely to hike rates.
China's MofCOM says Beijing to expand market access for foreign capital:
ShanghaiSecuritiesNews noted a senior official at China's Ministry of Commerce said Beijing will make greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign capital. Noted China will reduce negative list for foreign investment and relax restrictions on market access. Emphasized to provide "timely" and "accurate" services to foreign-owned enterprises. Aim to accelerate landmark foreign-funded projects and support existing foreign businesses. Also highlighted implementation of national treatment for foreign businesses and protection of their legitimate interests. Meanwhile Bloomberg reported Beijing asked former UK trade secretary Peter Mandelson to urge foreign businesses to return or expand to China as it grapples with a disappointing post-Covid recovery, which Mandelson said China must take clear actions to make the country easier to do business. Also coincided with Beijing welcoming high-profile business leaders recently including Tesla's Elon Musk and JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, in a bid to allay concerns that country is turning hostile to foreign capital.
RBA policy decision on Tuesday will be a close call:
Economists split on whether RBA will hold or raise cash rate by 25 bp to 4.10% at Tuesday's meeting (Bloomberg). Terminal rate expectations have wound higher after hotter-than-expected April CPI fueled concerns about inflation stickiness. Fair Work Commission's announcement of a larger-than-expected hike in minimum wage was viewed as an upside risk to wage growth, playing into RBA's concerns about rising unit labour costs and low productivity growth. Meanwhile, a quicker rebound in house prices is raising concerns about looser financial conditions. Several economists lifted peak rate forecasts by 25 to 4.35%, implying two more rate increases in coming months. The hawkish developments upended a consensus view earlier in May that weakening retail sales and a surprise jump in April unemployment would see RBA on hold this month.
Notable Gainers:
+4.7% 6723.JP (Renesas Electronics): completes acquisition of Panthronics; deal announced on 22-Mar
+4.1% 9961.HK (Trip.com Group): added to Hang Seng Index, effective today
+3.9% 9983.JP (FAST RETAILING CO.): reports May Japan Uniqlo same stores + online net sales +4.4% y/y
+2.5% U96.SP (SembCorp Industries): commences process to explore potential divestment of waste management business and energy from waste plant
+1.6% 003670.KS (POSCO Future M Co.): injects KRW1T cash in subsidiary POSCO chemical Canada
+0.8% 6502.JP (Toshiba): Kioxia, Western Digital reportedly still in merger talks
+0.4% 6594.JP (Nidec): notes interim dividends, share repurchase for previous FY exceed distributable amount
Notable Decliners:
-2.9% 291.HK (China Resources Beer (Holdings)): announces resignation of Wei Qiang as CFO; Zhao Wei appointed as new CFO
-1.3% 3913.HK (KWG Living Group Holdings): CEO Kong Jiannan steps down, effective 2-Jun
Data:
Economic:
China
May Caixin services PMI 57.1 vs consensus 55.2 and 56.4 in prior month
Composite PMI 55.6 vs 53.6 in prior month
Japan
May final services PMI 55.9 vs preliminary 56.3 and 55.4 in prior month
Composite PMI 54.3 vs preliminary 54.9 and 52.9 in prior month
Australia
Q1 business inventories +1.2% vs consensus +0.3% vs (0.2%) in Q4
Company profits +0.5% vs consensus +2.0% and +10.6% in Q4
May ANZ-Indeed job advertisements +0.1% m/m vs (0.3%) in April
Markets:
Nikkei: 693.21 or +2.20% to 32217.43
Hang Seng: 158.56 or +0.84% to 19108.50
Shanghai Composite: 2.37 or +0.07% to 3232.44
Shenzhen Composite: (1.92) or (0.09%) to 2033.70
ASX200: 71.20 or +1.00% to 7216.30
KOSPI: 14.05 or +0.54% to 2615.41
SENSEX: 309.97 or +0.50% to 62857.08
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.46 or +0.33% to 140.4070
$-KRW: (0.01) or (0.00%) to 1306.0700
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.38%) to 0.6596
$-INR: +0.18 or +0.21% to 82.5790
$-CNY: +0.03 or +0.46% to 7.1173
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