Jun 06 ,2023
Synopsis:
European indices ended the session mostly higher after reversing earlier losses, with Italy notable exception to the firmer trend. Sweden closed for its national day. In sectors, health care and banks led gainers, whilst telecom, energy and retail were the biggest laggards.
No change in broader narrative. Markets in a holding pattern ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.
On a busy macro-data front, German factory orders missed again after big drop in prior month, falling (0.4%) m/m in April versus expectations for +2.8% gain after sharp fall in March. Note, there was a (10.9%) drop, revised down from (10.7%), amid a collapse in new orders. May Constructions PMIs from Germany came a touch softer than expected at 43.9 vs consensus 44 but above prior 42 whilst from UK, construction activity increased at fastest pace in three months at 51.6 versus consensus 51.1 and prior 51.5. Growth in construction being driven by commercial and civil engineering activity, with residential and housing still struggling due to higher interest rates. Overall rise in construction order books the strongest since April 2022, which has fuelled demand for staff for fourth month in a row. Eurozone retail sales growth stalled in April at 0.0% m/m below forecast for a +0.2% increase but better than prior month contraction revised (0.4%) from (1.2%), giving a combined (2.6%) decline y/y vs consensus (3.0%) and prior revised (3.3%) from (3.8%). In UK, industry data showed slowdown in UK consumer spending in May. Sales growth was the slowest since October 2022 with spending up 3.9% on an annual basis, well above the 1.1% drop recorded a year ago, but below the 5.2% rise in April. In terms of inflation dynamics, Eurozone prices may see a decline in 2023, but then stabilize at higher levels in the medium term; Berenberg sees further disinflation over the course of 2023, with core readings seen below 4% by Q4, and headline below 3%.
In geopolitics, Ukraine troops attack along front in Donetsk region in what is thought to be preliminary stages are long-awaited counteroffensive.
In corporate news, in the UK, Paragon Banking Group (PAG.LN) posted strong H1 numbers, with Chemring Group (CHG.LN), British American Tobacco (BATS.LN), N Brown Group (BWNG.LN) also updating investors. In M&A news, Associated British Foods plc (ABF.LN) acquired National Milk Records plc (MNRP.LN), whilst Idorsia (IDIA.SW) entered into exclusive negotiations with regard to prospective strategic transaction for its Asia Pacific (ex-China) operations for up to CHF 400M; also, Bloomberg reported that Zurich Insurance (ZURN.SW), BNP Paribas's (BNP.FP) are among the parties considering bids for PT Astra International's life insurance arm. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that Eni (ENI.IM) is in exclusive negotiations to buy PE-backed Neptune Energy (+NEPE.LN) after improving its offer to below $6B.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, main releases will include, amongst others, Germany Apr industrial production, UK May house price index - Halifax, France Apr trade balance and Italy Apr retail sales.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Health Care +1.19%, Banks +1.00%, Basic Resources +0.96%, Financial Svcs +0.87%, Real Estate+0.85%, Media +0.82%, Utilities +0.59%, Food & Beverage +0.50%
Underperformers
Telecom (0.70%), Oil & Gas (0.34%), Retail (0.30%), Technology (0.27%), Autos & Parts (0.04%), Travel & Leisure (0.03%), Persnl & HHold Goods +0.10%, Construct & Mtls +0.16%, Chemicals +0.18%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.23%, Insurance +0.39%
Macro:
EU
UK
How Much of an Inflation Outlier Is The UK? - Bloomberg
UK takeover activity declines at start of the year - Evening Standard
Germany
Chinese Groups Lead Bids for Ford's German Site as Tensions Rise - Bloomberg
France
Protests in France as unions make last-ditch bid to resist higher retirement age - Independent
France Warns Droughts Are Hurting Forests' Ability to Absorb CO2 - Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+10.3% PAG.LN (Paragon Banking Group £5.37, +0.52) -- H1 earnings; £50M buyback program
+9.3% CHG.LN (Chemring Group £2.87, +0.25) -- H1 earnings
+8.7% OMG.LN (Oxford Metrics £1.10, +0.09) -- H1 earnings
+7.6% JLP.LN (Jubilee Metals Group £0.07, +0.01) -- new partnership agreement for its PGM and chrome operations in South Africa
+4.7% ZTF.LN (Zotefoams £3.58, +0.16) -- exclusivity supply agreement with Nike extended to 31-Dec-29
+4.6% BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena €2.32, +0.10) -- Italian treasury exit from Monte Paschi di Siena might help integration with Banca Popolare Emilia -- Repubblica
+3.7% SAE.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €97.10, +3.48) -- Added to MDAX
+3.6% ALCRB.FP (Carbios €41.60, +1.45) -- provides details of its business model for 2030 and 2035
+2.6% AO.LN (AO World £0.71, +0.02) -- initiated buy at Shore Capital Stockbrokers
+2.2% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF9.01, +0.17) -- exclusive negotiations with regard to prospective strategic transaction for its Asia Pacific (ex-China) operations for up to CHF 400M
+1.7% BRBY.LN (Burberry Group £22.02, +0.36) -- HSBC upgrade
+1.4% TM17.LN (Team17 Group £3.55, +0.05) -- new CEO
Notable Decliners
-12.2% BKW.SW (BKW AG CHF145.80, -20.00) -- UBS downgrade
-9.8% BWNG.LN (N Brown Group £0.23, -0.03) -- FY earnings
-7.7% TNG.FP (Transgene €2.17, -0.17) -- and NEC present new data on an Individualized Cancer Vaccine TG4050
-5.8% PBB.GR (Deutsche Pfandbriefbank €7.00, -0.43) -- Citi downgrade
-4.5% BOO.LN (boohoo Group £0.40, -0.02) -- Davy downgrade
-3.0% ARB.LN (Argo Blockchain £0.09, -0.00) -- Q1 earnings
-3.0% A5G.ID (AIB Group €3.86, -0.12) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade
-2.7% PCO.PW (Pepco Group PLN39.98, -1.14) -- H1 earnings
-1.8% KNIN.SW (Kuehne & Nagel CHF253.60, -4.80) -- to be admitted to SMI index as well as SPI 20; to acquire South African freight forwarder Morgan Cargo
-1.7% BCHN.SW (Burckhardt Compression Holding CHF525.00, -9.00) -- FY earnings
-1.3% DOCS.LN ( Martens £1.31, -0.02) -- Peel Hunt downgrade
-0.9% PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C. €4.52, -0.04) -- Italy seeking to limit Sinochem's influence on Pirelli - FT
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
voestalpine (VOE.AV), Soitec (SOI.FP), discoverIE Group (DSCV.LN), Vp (VP.LN), Fabasoft (FAA.GR), Ramsdens Holdings (RFX.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Apr Retail Sales (2.6%) y/y vs consensus (3.0%) and prior revised (3.3%) from (3.8%)
Germany
Apr Factory Orders m/m (0.4%) vs consensus (2.2%) and prior revised to (10.9%) from (10.7%)
May Construction PMI 43.9 vs consensus 44.0 and prior 42.0
UK May Construction PMI 51.6 vs consensus 51.1 and prior 51.5
Spain Apr Industrial Production (0.9%) y/y vs consensus +1.7% and prior revised +4.1% from +4.5%
Netherlands May CPI +6.1% y/y vs preliminary +6.1%
Markets:
WTI Crude (23-Jul): ($0.11) or (0.15%) to $72.04
€-$ (0.0022) or (0.21%) to 1.0693
£-$ (0.0017) or (0.14%) to 1.2413
€-£ (0.0007) to 0.8613
S&P 500 +0.11%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +2.42%
DAX: +14.88%
CAC: +11.43%
MIB: +13.83%
Stoxx 600: +8.67%
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