Jun 09 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly flat to lower Friday, with just Greece +0.3%, Norway +0.5% and Portugal +0.21% bucking the trend. Limited directional drivers in play as markets await next week's policy updates from the Fed and the ECB. Fed's Powell expected to signal June meeting a skip and not a pause as Fed wants to avoid an easing of financial conditions. Poll of economists via Reuters and Bloomberg see strong majority for ECB rate increase in June and July with terminal rate at 3.75%. Next week's UK labour market data a key input in BoE decision later this month, given the focus on wage price developments. Surprise rate hikes in Australia and Canada this week have added to risks of a longer global tightening cycle.
The week ahead also sees Eurozone and Germany prelim May CPI releases. It will be a quiet week for earnings/updates with focus on retailers Tesco (TSCO.LN) (Q1 trading statement on Fri) and H&M (HM.B.SS) (Q2 sales on Thurs). Also of note Shell (SHEL.LN) will hold a capital markets day on Wed with focus on shareholder returns. Note that Reuters reported today, citing sources, that Shell CEO Sawan will announce at the event next week the scrapping of a target to reduce oil output by 1% to 2% per year having already largely reached its goal for production cuts. On the IPO front, ThyssenKrupp's (TKA.GR) Nucera to reportedly launch IPO as early as next week.
In today's session, China inflation data headlined macro releases. China CPI inflation inched up in-line with forecasts, but PPI deflation worsened by more than expected. Data underscores extent to which pricing pressures have evaporated in China. Elsewhere, British Chamber of Commerce upgraded UK growth forecast, but activity will remain weak. UK introduced price floor for oil and gas windfall tax after lobbying by sector.
In geopolitical news, UK President Biden and UK PM Sunak announced an "Atlantic declaration" to strengthen economic ties, which revolves around increase in trade areas such as defense and critical materials and minerals. US-China tensions remain elevated after White House denied report Cuba to host a secret China spy base. Secretary of State Blinken reportedly planning to visit Beijing as soon as next week.
Croda (CRDA.LN) dragged Chemicals sector lower today after issuing a profit warning. With customer destocking in consumer and industrial end-markets now expected to continue into H2 year and momentum moderating in Crop Protection, full year 2023 Group profit before tax is now expected to be between £370M and £400M (vs FactSet £446M).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Real Estate +1.05%, Utilities +0.65%, Telecom +0.38%, Basic Resources +0.35%, Travel & Leisure +0.23%, Consumer Products and Services +0.16%, Technology +0.03%, Financial Svcs (0.05%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.09%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.13%)
Underperformers:
Chemicals (2.01%), Construct & Mtls (0.85%), Insurance (0.47%), Banks (0.46%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.42%), Health Care (0.36%), Media (0.30%), Retail (0.25%), Autos & Parts (0.19%)
Macro:
UK
EU/Germany
Germany warns of stalemate on EU fiscal rules reform - FT
Italy:
Italy Will Keep Blocking EU Bailout Fund Approval, Meloni Says - Bloomberg
Spain:
Spanish Left Unites to Face Conservatives in Snap Election - Bloomberg
Russia
Putin Says Russia to Place Nuclear Weapons in Belarus in July - Bloomberg
Russian Central Bank Holds Rate at 7.5%, Hints Future Increases - Moscow Times
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+123.1% AMGO.LN (Amigo Holdings £0.01, -0.00) -- approached by Michael Fleming, financier and shareholder, to request exclusivity agreement in relation to business which Amigo has agreed to
+10.7% SHOE.LN (Shoe Zone £2.33, +0.23) -- trading update
+9.7% MGN.NO (Magnora NOK30.50, +2.70) -- raises its FY25 target to 9,000 MW from 5,000 MW in development; announces capital distribution and buybacks
+8.8% VICO.SS (Vicore Pharma Holding SEK18.52, +1.50) -- completes 29.9M-share secondary priced at SEK16.75/share
+7.4% OXUR.BB (Oxurion €0.00, -0.00) -- converts 6 convertible bonds in Oxurion resulting in a €150k capital increase
+7.4% ALFA.LN (Alfa Financial Software Holdings £1.88, +0.13) -- Alfa confirms that it has received a number of unsolicited, non-binding proposals from EQT regarding a possible offer for Alfa
+5.5% NETW.LN (Network International Holdings £3.83, +0.20) -- Brookfield Business Partners and Brookfield Asset Management acquire company for 400p/share in cash; announces cancellation of share buyback programme
+5.0% NWF.LN (NWF Group £2.71, +0.13) -- FY trading update
+4.0% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK659.40, +25.40) -- Oddo upgrade
+2.7% HMSO.LN (Hammerson £0.27, +0.01) -- Barclays upgrade
+2.5% ALDNE.FP (Don't Nod Entertainment €8.20, +0.20) -- unveils a new gameplay trailer for Banishers
+1.7% CEC.GR (CECONOMY €2.23, +0.04) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+1.7% PA8K.GR (Paion €7.63, +0.13) -- Vicore Pharma Holding completes 29.9M-share secondary priced at SEK16.75/share
+1.1% ALK.B.DC (ALK-Abello DKK86.25, +0.90) -- Danske Bank upgrade
Notable Decliners
-46.8% VRS.LN (Versarien £0.03, -0.02) -- H1 earnings
-14.2% ALLIX.FP (Wallix Group €10.72, -1.78) -- completes upsized €10.5M equity and convertible note raising at €10.50/share
-12.7% CRDA.LN (Croda International £52.62, -7.66) -- trading update/profit warning
-10.7% BACTI.B.SS (Bactiguard Holding SEK72.00, -8.70) -- initiated reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
-8.8% BOO.LN (boohoo Group £0.35, -0.03) -- Numis downgrade
-8.7% SAE.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €88.56, -8.42) -- HSBC downgrade
-7.2% INTRUM.SS (Intrum SEK79.20, -6.16) -- Dagens Industri analysis says company is stuck in a debt trap and sees chance the stock could halve in the short term
-7.0% MTHH.DC (MT Hojgaard Holding DKK113.00, -8.50) -- lowers FY23 outlook: now expects operating profit DKK 200-225M vs previous operating profit guidance of DKK 300-325M. Revenue guidance unchanged
-2.9% SFOR.LN (S4 Capital £1.25, -0.04) -- AGM update
-2.9% AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding SEK221.50, -6.50) -- comments on operational issues
-2.5% DSY.FP (Dassault Systemes €40.21, -1.04) -- CMD
-2.5% CHG.LN (Chemring Group £2.93, -0.08) -- Panmure Gordon upgrade
-0.6% SHEL.LN (Shell Plc £22.96, -0.15) -- CEO to scrap annual oil output cut after already reaching targeted reduction -- sources tell Reuter
EU companies reporting Monday:
Corporate:
Traffic: Flughafen Zurich (FHZN.SW)
Data:
Economics:
Finland Apr Industrial Production (2.4%) y/y vs consensus (3.2%) and prior revised to (4%)
Norway May CPI +6.7% y/y vs consensus +6.2% and prior +6.4%; +0.7% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior +1.1%
May PPI (23.5%) y/y vs consensus (31.2%) and prior (15.3%)
Sweden Apr Industrial Production +3.4% y/y vs consensus +0.5% and prior revised (0.6%) from (0.1%)
Denmark Apr Trade Balance DKK 26.2B vs consensus DKK 22.6B and prior revised to DKK 24.1B from DKK 24.8B
Austria Apr Industrial Production +1.0% y/y vs consensus (4.5%) and prior (0.4%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jul 23): +$0.18 or +0.25% to $71.47
€-$ (0.0031) or (0.29%) to 1.0752
£-$ +0.0023 or +0.18% to 1.2579
€-£ (0.0039) to 0.8547
S&P 500 +0.08%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +1.45%
DAX: +14.54%
CAC: +11.37%
MIB: +14.61%
Stoxx 600: +8.24%
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