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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.52%, Hang Seng +0.07%, Shanghai Composite (0.08%) as of 04:10 ET

Jun 12 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly higher Monday to track developed markets Friday and in early Monday trade. More gains in Japan, Hong Kong zig-zagged its way to a slightly higher close, mainland China stocks mixed as more talk of PBOC rate cuts swirl. South Korea lower on heightened Beijing-Seoul tensions, Taipei slightly higher. Southeast Asia mixed, India seeing modest gains. New Zealand at a 3M low, Australia and Philippines closed for holidays. US futures edging higher, Europe opened with strong gains. US dollar flat, yuan weakened, won also under more pressure. Treasury yields a few bps higher. Crude futures lower along with gold, industrial metals also under pressure with iron ore leading the declines.

    • China's economic activity numbers Friday the key data release this week in Asia however focus will be on the PBOC for movement on rates after commercial banks today joined state-owned banks in trimming deposit rates, giving the PBOC more room to cut the RRR. Although an LPR rate cut seems further out, attention will likely be on the bank's MLF operation on Thursday. Yuan weakened again today versus a flat dollar, indicating markets at least expect some movement. Wednesday's Fed decision on rates the main event globally this week with futures indicating a 74% chance of no change, and a 54% chance of a 25 bps bump in July. ECB meeting due Thursday (25 bps increase expected), BOJ Friday (no change expected).

    • Japan May producer prices fell for fifth consecutive month and now at lowest level in two years while machine tool orders fell 22.2% y/y. Malaysia retail trade growth rose 12.9% y/y but it was the slowest rate of growth in 13M. Economists said a predicted stronger El Niño could negatively affect India's economy and agriculture output just as China and Ukraine supplies come under question. IIF survey found foreign investors were net sellers of Chinese bonds for the third consecutive month with marginal equity inflows, and greater interest in other EM Asia assets. Tensions between Seoul and Beijing increased after both capitals swapped ambassador summons, and industrial espionage claims centred on transfer of technology to China.

    • Tokyu Corp (9005.JP) is to launch a 20M share buyback up to ¥30B to run between 13-Jun and 31-Dec. Line Financial (Z Holdings, 4689.JP) has decided to exit the securities business and transfer clients' brokerage accounts to Nomura Holdings (8604.JP). HSBC (5.HK) may be considering buying Silicon Valley Bank's German business that is said to be up for sale. A Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) executive allegedly tried to steal blueprints and designs so he could replicate an entire semiconductor plant in China using SEC's technology.

  • Digest:

    • Chinese commercial lenders cut yuan deposit rates:

      • Several Chinese commercial banks cut interest rates on yuan deposit products Monday, following larger state-owned banks rate cuts last week. China Merchants Bank (600036.CH), China CITIC Bank (601998.CH) and China Minsheng Bank (600016.CH) cut rates on demand deposits by 5 bps to 0.20% according to banks' websites. Two-year time deposit rates cut by 10bps, 3Y and 5Y time deposits by 15 bps. Reuters quoted economists saying deposit rate cuts will provide more room for PBOC to cut RRR by up to 50 bps to expand credit and boost investment spending. However, they also do not expect additional LPR cuts to come unless economic data or financial risks deteriorate to level that could stop country reaching 5.0% growth rate. Last week, ICBC (601398.CH), ABC (601288.CH) and BOC (601988.CH) among state-owned banks cut rates between 5-15 bps, second such cut within past 12M.

    • PBOC Governor Yi remains confident in growth target with "stronger counter-cyclical adjustments":

      • In a speech to a Shanghai symposium last week and posted Friday evening, PBOC Governor Yi Gang was sanguine about China's economic outlook, suggesting Q2 GDP will be "relatively high," mainly owing to a favorable base effect. Also rationalized recent inflation softness as a reflection of lagged pickup in demand, expects CPI to pick up gradually in H2 and will finish December back above 1%. Overall, he expressed confidence in meeting the economic goals defined in the NPC (growth target of about 5%). Particular attention on the repeated pledge to "strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments," taken as an easing signal. Securities Daily discussed economists' expectations PBOC could ease as soon as this week by lowering the MLF rate by 5~10 bp in Thursday's operation, which would presage similar declines in LPRs. Also noted expectations of room to cut RRR in Q3 to shore up liquidity. They concurred China's 'triple pressures' of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weak expectations, have eased though were unconvinced of sustainability.

    • Yuan under continued pressure:

      • Caixin commented yuan still faces downward pressure in short-term amid continued strong dollar, only potentially easing when all negative factors priced in. Noted PBOC set midpoint rate at 7.1212 per dollar Monday, more than 1% down since rate set above key 7.0 per dollar on 19-May. Offshore and onshore yuan down 3.3% and 3.6% respectively against dollar YTD while USD DXY index up only 0.1%, market pricing in no change in Fed rates this week while PBOC under pressure to cut RRR or interest rates in H2. More selling pressure on yuan as traders conducted carry trades exchanging yuan for higher-yielding Indonesian rupiah and Indian rupee. Also growing willingness from Chinese domestic market players to hold dollars as seen in hike of USD CIROR. China's disappointing post-Covid economic recovery attributed to yuan's softness too. Cited UBS China economist view that yuan to stabilize and rebound somewhat within the year if Fed pauses and cuts rates later.

    • Stronger El Niño may lower Indian agri production, pressure economy:

      • The US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said strong El Niño weather conditions may result in weakened rainfall late autumn and winter in western India, strong typhoon activity in Pacific. India Department of economic affairs warned in April weather would be potential risk to India's economic growth, including reduction in agriculture output and added inflationary pressure. Said economy areas sensitive to El Niño include commodities such as rice and palm oil. Other economists noted cotton negatively affected while industries deriving significant portion of demand from rural income such as cement makers, agricultural machinery manufacturers will also feel effects (Mint). In previous El Niño weather events, India limited exports of some grains post severe drought; 2023-24 event would come just as Chinese wheat farmers face 'disaster' after heavy rains (Reuters) and Ukraine farmland face long-term devastation following breach of Dnipro river dam (BBC).

    • Portfolio flows -- cash positions approaching record, China still out of favor:

      • Reuters cited BofA's Global Fund Manager Survey, highlighting ongoing strength in cash inflows totaling $70.6B in the latest week, taking YTD level to $837B approaching the record $917B in 2020. Inflows of $13.4B in bonds outpaced $7.7B in equities, though latter was discounted as FOMO and not seen as a bullish signal with Fed remaining hawkish. Tech saw first weekly outflow ($1.2B) in eight weeks, folllowing a record $8.5B inflow in the prior week. Article included Refinitiv Lipper data showing global equity funds posted outflows for the eighth consecutive week in the week to 6-Jun, while global bonds funds saw inflows for the 12th straight week. Separately, Reuters also cited an IIF survey that found foreign flows into Asia markets lifted EM inflows to $10.4B in May (India, Taiwan, Korea were notable destinations). Offset $7.2B outflows from China debt markets while equities saw marginal $100M inflow. Fits with activity over the past year, which has seen $59B outflows from Chinese debt and $33.7B in equities.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +9.0% 001740.KS (SK Networks Co.): SK Networks president Choi Sung-hwan and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reportedly meet to discuss potential cooperation

      • +2.2% 2413.JP (M3): acquires two healthcare research divisions from Kantar Group; terms undisclosed

      • +1.9% 4523.JP (Eisai): Eisai, Biogen issue press release on FDA panel's vote to confirm overall benefit-risk assessment for LEQEMBI to treat Alzheimer's Disease

      • +1.2% 4507.JP (Shionogi & Co.): enrolls first participant in Japan in its global Phase 3 trial of ensitrelvir

      • +0.7% 9202.JP (ANA HOLDINGS): reports April international traffic +155.7% y/y

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -4.4% 9922.HK (Jiumaojiu International Holdings): CFO Li Zhuoguang resigns, effective immediately; Su Danman, currently group financial controller, succeeds Li as CFO

      • -1.1% 2884.TT (E.SUN Financial Holding): E.SUN Financial Holding reports May revenue NT$4.85B, (2.9%) y/y; chairman Yung Jen Huang to step down as term expires, effective immediately

      • -0.1% 5.HK (HSBC Holdings): Silicon Valley Bank's German business reportedly up for sale, HSBC could be a possible buyer

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan May

        • CGPI +5.1% y/y vs consensus +5.6% and revised +5.9% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 168.83 or +0.52% to 32434.00

      • Hang Seng: 14.36 or +0.07% to 19404.31

      • Shanghai Composite: (2.57) or (0.08%) to 3228.83

      • Shenzhen Composite: 14.73 or +0.73% to 2021.18

      • ASX200: Closed

      • KOSPI: (11.81) or (0.45%) to 2629.35

      • SENSEX: 133.81 or +0.21% to 62759.44

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.04 or +0.03% to 139.4430

      • $-KRW: (4.41) or (0.34%) to 1283.2700

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.37% to 0.6766

      • $-INR: +0.01 or +0.01% to 82.4320

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.15% to 7.1393

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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