Jun 14 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asia equities poised to open higher Thursday. Futures in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea all traded higher. US futures extending cash session gains in S&P 500 and Nasdaq with the latter outperforming. Sharp rise in Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index added to positive signals for regional tech. Treasuries came under notable pressure at the short end of the curve, with the 2/10 spread hitting its most inverted level since before the banking crisis. Dollar index was down 0.3% with weakness on the major crosses. Gold finished up 0.5%. Bitcoin futures were down 0.2%. WTI crude settled down 1.7% with some focus on a big weekly US inventory build.
Fed left funds rate unchanged at 5.00-5.25%, as expected. However, median dot in the SEP jumped 50bp to 5.6% vs the 25bp expected, implying two more rate hikes. Following the decisions, Bloomberg Instant MLIV Pulse survey showed most investors still expect rate hikes to cause recession. Slim majority look for rate cuts to begin 2Q24 and about a third projecting a 4Q23 start. Powell largely dismissed prospects for a rate cut this year and suggested such a move is probably "a couple of years out."
Regional focus turns to China today. Latest polls show PBOC widely expected to cut the 1-year MLF rate by 10 bp after similar reductions to 7-day reverse repo and SLF rates earlier this week. Recent attention has been on the rollover size, with CNY200B due to mature. MLF rate cut would point to lower LPRs on 20-Jun. China activity data set to be the main data release, particularly as consensus looks for further softening in IP, retail and FAI, playing into stronger calls for stimulus and subsequent policy announcements.
Elsewhere, Australia employment expected to rebound in May following a decline in the previous month and unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. New Zealand Q1 GDP contracted marginally as expected, edging into technical recession. Japan to see customs trade and machinery orders. BOJ meeting begins today with decisions to be announced Friday. While policy expected to remain unchanged, attention shifts to July, seen as the most likely timing of a near-term adjustment.
Pre-open Company News:
2318.HK -- Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China reports gross premium income from 1-Jan to 31-May
1093.HK -- CSPC Pharmaceutical's paliperidone extended-release tablet passes NMPA's consistency evaluation for generic drugs
VOD.LN -- Vodafone UK and Three UK to merge; Vodafone will own 51% of the combined business and CKHGT 49%
1093.HK -- CSPC Pharmaceutical unit's mirabegron extended-release tablet passes NMPA's consistency evaluation for generic drugs
1898.HK -- China Coal Energy reports May commercial coal production 11.1M tonnes, +16.3% y/y
BN4.SP -- Keppel Corp.'s 49%-owned JV with Decarb Corp. secures two EaaS contracts in Thailand
MIRM -- Mirum Pharmaceuticals announces publication of event-free survival data from Mirum's LIVMARLI Alagille syndrome program
1382.HK -- Pacific Textiles Holdings guides FY net income attributable HK$269M vs year-ago HK$573M
2601.HK -- China Pacific Insurance (Group) reports Jan to May premium income
688396.CH -- China Resources Microelectronics downgraded to sell from buy at Goldman Sachs
1918.HK -- Winding-up petition against Sunac China Holdings withdrawn by Hong Kong court
500770.IN -- Tata Chemicals downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
7203.JP -- Follow-up: Toyota Motor shares close higher after re-electing Akio Toyoda as board chairman
2445.MK -- Kuala Lumpur Kepong reports May crop figures
002371.CH -- NAURA Technology Group upgraded to buy from sell at UBS
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
10:00 CST: Industrial Output NSA Y/Y; consensus +3.4%
10:00 CST: Retail Sales NSA Y/Y; consensus +13.7%
Hong Kong:
Earnings:
Café de Coral Holdings (341.HK)
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Core Machinery Orders ex-Electric Power Companies & Ships SA M/M; consensus +1.4%
08:50 JST: Export NSA Y/Y (Preliminary); consensus (1.1%)
08:50 JST: Import NSA Y/Y (Preliminary); consensus
08:50 JST: Trade Balance NSA (Preliminary); consensus
Australia:
Economic:
11:00 AEST: Consumer Inflation Expectation; consensus
11:30 AEST: Unemployment Rate; consensus 3.7%
11:30 AEST: Employment SA; consensus +20K
New Zealand:
Economic:
10:45 NZST: Real GDP Y/Y; consensus +2.7%
10:45 NZST: GDP NSA Q/Q; consensus +0.2%
Market Data:
Gold (Aug 23): ($12.20) or (0.62%) to $1956.70
WTI Crude (Jul 23): +$0.23 or +0.34% to $68.50
$-¥: (0.17) or (0.12%) to 140.0310
$-KRW: +5.38 or +0.42% to 1273.3400
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.40% to 0.6796
$-INR: (0.25) or (0.30%) to 82.0450
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.07%) to 7.1626
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