Jun 15 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open marginally lower. Asia equities trading mostly higher Thursday. Strength led by Hong Kong, albeit narrowly confined mostly in tech. US futures generally steady, following cash session gains in S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Fed left funds rate unchanged at 5.00-5.25%, as expected. However, median dot in the SEP jumped 50bp to 5.6% vs the 25bp expected, implying two more rate hikes. Following the decisions, Bloomberg Instant MLIV Pulse survey showed most investors still expect rate hikes to cause recession. Slim majority look for rate cuts to begin 2Q24 and about a third projecting a 4Q23 start. Powell largely dismissed prospects for a rate cut this year and suggested such a move is probably "a couple of years out."
Focus now turns to the ECB policy decision at 14:15CET with consensus for a 25bps increase in benchmark rate; press conf 14:45CET. Poll of economists via Reuters and Bloomberg see strong majority for ECB rate increase in June and July with terminal rate at 3.75%. Also today: Norges Bank the IMF, and the IMF Economic Review hold a joint conf on "The Future of Macroeconomic Policy" (thru Fri). Bundesbank's Nagel and Balz speeches at 9:00CET and 15:15CET respectively at Bank's symposium. BOE's Cunliffe interview at 16:35BST at Politico Global Tech Summit.
Macro data releases out today include, Netherlands May Unemployment Rate 3.5% vs consensus 3.4% and prior 3.4%, following France prelim May CPI, Eurozone Apr Trade Balance, and Switzerland May PPI.
Also on the agenda for today, Eurogroup meeting. VivaTech continues; today includes Carrefour (CA.FP) presenting at 16:45CET to what extent GenAI is going to change the retail industry, through innovations and use cases. In Switzerland, SECO to release its latest economic forecasts. In Germany, DIW and IfW to present their latest economic forecasts.
In corporate news highlights, focus on M&A headlines as Safran SA (SAF.FP) is reportedly nearing a ~$1.8B deal to acquire Raytheon Technologies (RTX) flight control business unit, reports Reuters. Still, in France, Casino Guichard-Perrachon (CO.FP) receives a letter from Fimalac for a possible participation for an amount of €150M in the proposal to strengthen the equity of EP Global. On 24-Apr EP Global Commerce (owned by Daniel Křetínský) proposed a €1.1B capital increases in total for Casino, Guichard-Perrachon, Fimalac and Casino's existing shareholders. In earnings news, Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR) raises its FY25 financial ambition and now expects sales to reach €5B and EBIT at least €600M.
Politics/Macro/World News
BOE's Interest Rate Hikes Are Taking Longer to Curb UK Inflation - Bloomberg
Rishi Sunak scraps plan for supermarket price cap after backlash - The Telegraph
ECB Enters Home Stretch of Historic Hiking Cycle: Decision Guide - Bloomberg
Sticky price pressures set to keep ECB in tightening mode - FT
'Fundamental Revisit' of UK-EU Trade Needed, Says BOE Policymaker - Bloomberg
Netherlands May Unemployment Rate 3.5% vs consensus 3.4% and prior 3.4%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
VACN.SW (VAT Group) -- notes sharply lower spending by semiconductor customers; implements short time work scheme
CRNA.NO (Circio Holding) -- provides June company update
JTC.LN (JTC) -- announces acquisition of South Dakota Trust Company for a maximum consideration of $270M
CALN.SW (Calida Holding) -- expects slightly lower H1 sales vs FactSet CHF175.1M [1 est]; CEO Timo Schmidt-Eisenhart to leave at end of June
BOSS.GR (HUGO BOSS) -- raises FY25 sales ambition to €5B and EBIT now set to reach at least €600M
ALVU.FP (Vente-Unique.com) -- reports H1 net income €2.2M, (33%) vs year-ago €3.3M; reaffirms FY earnings growth target
M&A
RTX (Raytheon Technologies) -- Safran SA reportedly nearing ~$1.8B deal to acquire Raytheon Technologies flight control business unit - Reuters
CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) -- receives a letter from Fimalac for possible participation for an amount of €150M in the proposal to strengthen the equity of EP Global
BETS.B.SS (Betsson) -- acquires betFIRST for €117M cash plus up to €3M earnout, enters into partnership with Groupe Partouche
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- Bain Capital announces submission of non-binding offer for SoftwareOne Holding at CHF18.50/share
JTC.LN (JTC) -- announces acquisition of South Dakota Trust Company for a maximum consideration of $270M
ULVR.LN (Unilever) -- to acquire Yasso in North America, terms undisclosed
ENI.IM (Eni) -- reportedly "intensifying" discussions around potential sale of minority stake in its Plenitude renewables unit -- Reuters
HOLN.SW (Holcim) -- acquires Guatemala's Minerales y Agregados; price not disclosed
FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co.) -- FLSmidth to sell Non-Core Activities material handling technology assets to KOCH Solutions and accelerates the exit of the Non-Core Activities segment
ERYP.FP (ERYTech Pharma) -- ERYTECH announces Commercial Court has rejected Akkadian's request to postpone vote on merger with Pherecydes Pharma
BALYO.FP (Balyo) -- announces all-cash public tender offer at €0.85/share from SoftBank Group
CMA to investigate merger of Vodafone UK, Three UK - London Times, citing CMA spokesman (12:00 BST/19:00 HKT)
Bandwidth, Sinch rumored to be likely buyers of New Zealand-based messaging platform Modica - The Australian
HP3A.GR (Ringmetall) -- acquires Liner Factory in Ahaus, Germany for mid-single-digit million € amount
AOF.GR (General Atlantic) -- purchases ~20% of ATOSS Software AG shares from AOB Invest GmbH
Healthcare
IPN.FP (Ipsen) -- FDA accepts Ipsen's sNDA for Onivyde regimen in first-line metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma
Other
PHIA.NA (Koninklijke Philips) -- announces repurchase of up to 7.1M shares to cover long-term incentive plans
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- announces €1B issue of preferred contingently convertible securities
INW.IM (Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane) -- launches first €150M tranche of its share buyback program
888.LN (888 Holdings) -- Activist HG Vora backs FS Gaming's plan to appoint new management at 888 - FT, citing person familiar with the fund's thinking (timing uncertain)
AGL Energy to partner wth BP in move to offer discounted EV charging - The Australian
AGL Energy, bp pulse sign three-year agreement to build on AGL's existing EV at home and bp pulse's existing on-the-go charging network
Oxford Properties keeps luxury alive in latest acquisition - Bloomberg
Key rating changes
Upgrades
SGRO.LN (Segro) -- to buy from hold at Goodbody Stockbrokers
ALIG.SS (Alimak Group) -- upgraded to buy from hold at Carnegie Securities
FBK.IM (FinecoBank) -- to hold from underperform at Jefferies
SWED.A.SS (Swedbank) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
COLR.BB (Colruyt) -- to equal weight from underweight at Barclays
Downgrades
BGN.IM (Banca Generali ) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
HMS.SS (HMS Networks) -- to sell from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
Initiations
SKF.B.SS (SKF) -- underperform at Oddo
VIC.LN (Victorian Plumbing Group) -- buy at Liberum Capital
ADT1.LN (Adriatic Metals) -- buy at Berenberg
Other Actions
EMG.LN (Man Group) -- resumed overweight at JPMorgan; prior rating was overweight
Data
Nikkei +0.25% to 33585.81
Hang Seng +1.68% to 19735.30
Shanghai Composite +0.47% to 3244.17
S&P futures +0.8 vs prior close of 4418.5
€-$ (0.0012) or (0.11%) to 1.0822
$-¥ +1.10 or +0.78% to 141.17
€-¥ +1.05 or +0.69% to 152.78
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