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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.66%, Hang Seng +1.07%, Shanghai Composite +0.63% as of 04:10 ET

Jun 16 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly stronger Friday as Greater China looked ahead to potential stimulus and Japan advanced on a weaker yen. Greater China led again by the Hang Seng, which saw an across-the-board rally for the second day, mainland bourses also ahead. Japan closed on another 33-year record as BOJ kept its ultra-low interest rate. Gains for South Korea but Taiwan lagged on weak central bank outlook. Southeast Asia mixed, India extended opening gains. US futures slightly stronger, Europe opened with small gains as it caught up with Wall Street's late surge. US dollar a little higher after its overnight fall, yen weakened on dovish BOJ. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields fell. Crude lower, precious metals flat, industrial metals higher.

    • Higher-than-expected weekly US jobless claims was the spur for the overnight and broad-based rally in the S&P 500 as investors bet the high figure would stop the Fed from delivering two further rate hikes indicated by the dot plot. Markets shrugged off the strong retail sales data which appeared to indicate the opposite of the economy showing early signs of cracking, as well as the bump up in ECB inflation forecasts that accompanied its 25 bp hike. Nevertheless, optimism in the US overnight transferred to Asia first thing when most main markets rose. Japan's markets rallied from a weak open as the BOJ kept its ultra-low monetary policy and Governor Ueda said the bank would not hesitate in easing further if necessary.

    • Japan's PM Kishida ruled out dissolving the lower house in the current Diet session. Secretary of State Blinken departs for China Friday for a two-day visit though US officials have downplayed prospects for a breakthrough. Taiwan's central bank held rates steady but cut FY2023 GDP forecasts, hinted its priority was now on supporting growth. Singapore's May exports were dire and could lead to more GDP downgrades, India opened a five-month high trade deficit as exports fell. Vietnam's central bank cut interest rates again to spur flagging growth.

    • Nissan Motor (7201.JP) confirmed its COO Ashwani Gupta will leave the company at the end of June. Nomura Holdings (8604.JP) said it has scaled back from its Line Securities joint venture to focus more on corporate services and wealthy clients. Xpeng (9868.HK) expanded its self-driving capability to Beijing as part of its Navigation Guided Pilot expansion programme.

  • Digest:

    • China economists see downside risks to growth, more stimulus ahead:

      • Takeaways from China activity data showed economists recognizing downside risks to growth, mainly as Q2 momentum is tracking well below expectations. With year-ago comparisons in June data supported by favorable base effects, analysis highlighted sequential comparisons indicating a notable drop-off. Those forecasting 2023 growth in the high-5% range were prompted to revise down closer to consensus around mid-5%, while others were unchanged. Estimates remain above the government growth target of 'around 5%.' Economists also widely discussed this week's rate cuts in 7-day reverse repo and MLF rates and seen as likely marking the start of a new round of stimulus. Goldman Sachs looks for 10 bp reductions in 1y and 5y LPRs on 20-Jun. Nomura and Barclays forecasts up to three more policy rate cuts through 1Q24. Barclays (which correctly anticipated this week's policy rate cuts) also forecasts 25 bp RRR reductions in 3Q23 and 1Q24, while others included RRR cuts in a range of possible monetary and fiscal easing options. Some thoughts of a possible increase in LGSB issuance quotas with Nomura looking for a CNY500B add.

    • Yen weakens on Ueda comments post BOJ decision to keep ultra-low rates:

      • Yen weakened 0.6% against US dollar Friday post BOJ decision to hold steady on ultra-lose monetary policy, accelerating further post Governor Ueda comments in bank's afternoon press conference. Other yen crosses weakened with EUR/JPY up more than 3.0% this week, CHF/JPY up 2.7%, AUD/JPY up more than 3.5% with the Australia dollar also rallying Chinese stimulus hopes. WTD, yen weakened 1.1% against US dollar. Ueda said BOJ ultra-lose policy will likely continue for some time even when prices overshoot bank's target, bank did not change policy now because country's inflation rate not considered sustainable now. Added responding to inflation undershoot after premature rate hike more difficult than responding to overshoot but admitted a "non-zero chance" of excessive inflation overshoot with cautious policy. Noted bank is paying attention to financial and forex markets, weighing benefits and side-effects of YCC policy.

    • BOJ keeps monetary policy steady, as expected:

      • BOJ left policy unchanged as widely expected. Vote to maintain YCC was unanimous again with nothing that might indicate extended debate. Similarly, nothing meaningful out of Governor Ueda's press conference. Next focus will be on Summary of Opinions due 26-Jun for additional color. Economic assessment and outlook also largely unchanged. Japan's economy still expected to recover moderately and reiterated core CPI inflation likely to decelerate toward mid-FY23, despite extremely high uncertainties. Easing bias also retained in guidance, reaffirming pledge to continue with QQE and YCC for as long as necessary to achieve the inflation target in a stable manner, and will not hesitate to ease further if necessary. Market debate now apt to concentrate on prospects for a policy change in July, where notable cohort of economists forecast some change in YCC, and represents the last holdout for the group that foresaw YCC tweaks over June-July citing persistent market distortions. Previews for this meeting broadly noted this factor has diminished, especially after BOJ's Bond Market Survey showed the first improvement in market function in five quarters.

    • Singapore exports slump in May to give eighth successive monthly decline:

      • Singapore's May non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 14.7% y/y versus consensus -8.1%, and April's 9.8% contraction. Steepest export decline in three months, eighth consecutive monthly fall as electronic (-27.2%) and non-electronic (-10.7%) shipments both fell sharply. Within electronic cluster, ICs -39.2% y/y, disk media -41.6%, PC parts -48.7%; non-electronic declines in pharmaceuticals -14.%, petchems -22.8%. Seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, NODX -14.6% versus consensus -1.3%. Export value declined to S$13.8B from April's S$17.1B, April's S$16.1B, and 2022's average S$16.6B (BusinessTimes). By destination, shipments to country's top ten markets all declined but China shipments rose 3.7% y/y versus April's 20.9% decline; to EU fell 16.0% following April's +39%, to South Korea -18.6%. Singapore's exports notoriously volatile due to large pharma sector and exposure to global trade however feeds directly into country's FY GDP growth with several brokers lately downgrading forecasts on poor exports.

    • Taiwan central bank cuts 2023 GDP growth forecast, keeps rates steady:

      • Taiwan's central bank cut its FY 2023 GDP growth forecast to 1.72% from estimate made in March of 2.21%. Bank said Taiwan GDP contracted 2.87% y/y in Q1 as manufacturers adjusted high levels of inventory in supply chains, led to scaled back investments. Private investments kept growing, offsetting weak export sales, domestic investments (FocusTaiwan). Bank said it expected exports to gradually recover later this year fueled by emerging technologies, overall economic growth better in H2 versus H1. Said CPI will grow 2.24% this year, above bank's target 2.0%, and March's 2.09% forecast. Estimated core inflation 2.38% from March's estimate of 2.09%. Bank also kept discount rate steady at 1.875%, still highest in eight years, but introduced fifth credit control round to rein in home prices following increase in mortgages for second homes; move will help banks' cut exposure, lower risks. Governor Yang China-long played down need for further hikes this year as inflation set to ease, signaling bank now sees growth as priority over inflation (Bloomberg).

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +9.9% 2616.HK (CStone Pharmaceuticals): publishes overall survival results of sugemalimab in NSCLS in Nature Cancer

      • +4.9% 7751.JP (Canon): to launch up-to-¥50B buyback of up to 16M shares, to run between 16-Jun and 21-Aug

      • +2.2% 1055.HK (China Southern Airlines): reports May traffic +248.04% y/y

      • +1.8% 8604.JP (Nomura): scaled back from Line Securities JV amid plans to focus more on services for corporate and wealthy clients

      • +1.5% 4503.JP (Astellas Pharma): signs collaboration and option agreement with Cullgen to advance innovative targeted protein degraders

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -3.1% AC.PM (Ayala Corp): reportedly preparing for M&A to expand business

      • -0.4% 175.HK (Geely Automobile Holdings): EU reportedly discussing whether to open anti-dumping investigation into Chinese electric cars

      • -0.1% 005830.KS (DB Insurance Co.): reportedly to acquire 75% stake in BSH (Sai Gon Ha Noi Insurance); terms unreported

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Singapore May

        • Non-oil exports (14.7%) y/y vs consensus (8.1%) and (9.8%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 220.59 or +0.66% to 33706.08

      • Hang Seng: 211.45 or +1.07% to 20040.37

      • Shanghai Composite: 20.36 or +0.63% to 3273.33

      • Shenzhen Composite: 20.41 or +0.99% to 2083.36

      • ASX200: 75.90 or +1.06% to 7251.20

      • KOSPI: 17.25 or +0.66% to 2625.79

      • SENSEX: 253.44 or +0.40% to 63171.07

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +1.02 or +0.72% to 141.3000

      • $-KRW: +4.57 or +0.36% to 1274.9700

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.21%) to 0.6869

      • $-INR: +0.00 or +0.01% to 81.9130

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.01% to 7.1218

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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