Jun 19 ,2023
Synopsis:
European indices ended the session lower with US markets closed for Juneteenth holiday. In sectors, chemicals, construc/mtls and basic resources the worst performers whilst banks fair better.
No change in broader narrative. Markets in a holding pattern ahead of this week monetary policy decisions from Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank. Bloomberg reported that the UK interest rate market may be reaching an inflection point with this week's inflation data and the BoE decision to shape the outlook. Official data is expected to show inflation slowed to its lowest level in 14 months to 8.4% versus prior 8.7% and the BoE is expected to hike rates by 25 bps to 4.75%. The market is pricing in four hikes by year-end to take the key rate to 5.75% but also attribute a small chance of a final move to 6%. In the EZ, ECB officials continue to sound hawkish since last week's policy decision despite warnings that the Governing Council may be underestimating disinflationary trends and liquidity risks posed by TLTRO repayment. Markets see greater than 50% chance of terminal rate of 4% with one final rate increase needed either in September or October.
In politics, latest Spanish election poll published in El Pais showed People's Party (PP) increased support. Ahead of next month's election, PP estimated to win between 128 and 142 seats in the 350-member lower house, up from the 131 in the previous poll at the end of May (Reuters).
Latest in Russia-Ukraine conflict sees continuation of Kyiv counteroffensive. African delegation is the latest to try to work on a peace initiative.
On the corporate front, AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) in focus after the FT reported that the company is considering the spin-off of the China unit with potential listing in Hong Kong or Shanghai, whilst Crayon (CRAYN.NO) is reportedly exploring options including a sale; still in M&A news, Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) agreed to acquire BIOCORP Production (ALCOR.FP) for €35/share and Michelin (ML.FP) acquired 100% of Flex Composite Group (FCG) for an enterprise value of €700M; in another story, Ball Corp is said to be weighing the ~$5B sale of its aerospace business, attracting interest of BAE Systems (BA.LN), Textron (TXT) and private equity.
In Germany, Sartorius (SRT3.GR) and Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM.FP) lowered their forecasts for 2023, whilst MTX.GR (MTU Aero Engines) raised its earnings forecast. Elsewhere, Stellantis (STLAM.IM) and Archer Aviation (ACHR) update on their partnership and Avacta Group (AVCT.LN) responded to recent market speculation stating that no fundraising is imminent.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, main releases will include, amongst others, Germany May PPI, Eurozone Apr construction output and Switzerland May trade balance.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Banks +0.03%, Oil & Gas (0.42%), Insurance (0.35%), Technology (0.43%), Telecom (0.51%), Retail (0.65%), Autos & Parts (0.64%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.83%), Utilities (0.99%)
Underperformers
Chemicals (2.80%), Construct & Mtls (2.45%), Basic Resources (2.20%), Real Estate(1.86%), Health Care (1.61%), Financial Svcs (1.35%), Persnl & HHold Goods (1.22%), Media (1.18%), Food & Beverage (1.17%), Travel & Leisure (1.09%)
Macro:
Central banks
EU
UK
Germany
France
France targets 10B euros in budget savings - minister - forexlive
Italy:
Unpacking Taiwan's Foreign Minister's unannounced trip to Italy - Decode39
Spain:
Spain's conservative PP party widens lead ahead of national election, poll shows - Reuters
El PP afianza su ventaja sobre el PSOE y roza la mayoría absoluta con Vox - El Pais
Quarterly report on the Spanish economy - Banco de España
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+18.0% CREO.LN (Creo Medical Group £0.35, +0.06) -- notes Speedboat Inject cleared for upper GI use in Europe
+15.0% ONCO.SS (Oncopeptides SEK9.44, +1.28) -- completes first sales of Pepaxti in Greece
+6.8% FTK.GR (flatexDEGIRO €9.21, +0.58) -- Oddo upgrade
+6.4% BOO.LN (boohoo Group £0.00, +0.02) -- issues statement regarding Revolution Beauty Group plc
+4.6% STLN.SW (Swiss Steel Holding CHF0.14, +0.01) -- "BigPoint Holding AG sold participation of 8.07% in company to PCS Holding AG
+4.2% MTX.GR (MTU Aero Engines €234.20, +9.50) -- raises FY outlook
+4.0% ULTI.NO (Ultimovacs NOK81.40, +3.10) -- study update
+3.8% SIOFF.NO (Siem Offshore NOK21.55, +0.80) -- primary inside purchased 3.0M company shares at NOK 20.75/share
+3.3% GRNG.SS (Gränges SEK103.40, +3.30) -- Handelsbanken upgrade
+2.5% FGP.LN (FirstGroup £1.39, +0.03) -- HSBC upgrade
+2.2% GET.FP (Getlink €16.05, +0.35) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+1.7% VSCA.GR (4SC €12.30, +0.20) -- Kinselby accepted by EMA Name Review Group (NRG)
+1.3% SCHO.DC (Schouw & Co DKK558.00, +7.00) -- reinitiated buy at Danske Bank
+1.1% KPN.NA (Royal KPN €3.18, +0.04) -- acquires fiber network of Primevest Capital Partners
+0.5% BEI.GR (Beiersdorf €122.35, +0.60) -- Societe Generale upgrade
+0.4% OVS.IM (OVS €2.44, +0.01) -- initiated outperform at Mediobanca
+0.4% NESTE.FH (Neste €0.00, +0.17) -- updates dividend policy; keeps financial targets unchanged -- CMD
+0.1% IMM.LN (ImmuPharma £0.03, -0.00) -- to commence phase 2/3 trial of P140 for SLE/Lupus in H2
Notable Decliners
-78.0% AGY.LN (Allergy Therapeutics £0.02, -0.05) -- H1 earnings
-25.9% BIOS.BB (BioSenic €0.08, -0.03) -- puts Phase IIb ALLOB trial on hold
-14.9% SRT3.GR (Sartorius €306.60, -52.90) -- lowers forecast for 2023
-12.8% DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech €238.20, -35.40) -- lowers forecast for 2023
-11.2% ALK.B.DC (ALK-Abello DKK79.55, -10.00) -- CEO to step down
-6.2% ALIF.B.SS (AddLife SEK122.90, -8.10) -- Dagens Industri out with sell recommendation
-5.6% KNOS.LN (Kainos Group £13.41, -0.80) -- CEO to step down; Goodbody Stockbrokers downgrade
-3.8% STERV.FH (Stora Enso €11.56, -0.44) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade
-3.6% BAS.GR (BASF SE €44.57, -1.64) -- HSBC downgrade
-3.6% MTRS.SS (Munters Group SEK119.10, -4.40) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-2.8% SUBC.NO (Subsea 7 NOK111.90, -3.25) -- notes its offer for DOF Group ASA expires today; does not extend its offer
-1.9% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk DKK1,083.80, -21.00) -- agrees to acquire BIOCORP Production for €35/share
-1.6% TEP.FP (Teleperformance €159.90, -2.60) -- appoints new deputy CEO
-0.6% 1U1.GR (1&1 AG €10.26, -0.06) -- Barclays downgrade
-0.2% RHIM.LN (RHI Magnesita £26.80, -0.06) -- "Ignite Luxembourg Holdings S.à r.l. offers to acquire 29.9% of company for 2,850p/share
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings: SkiStar (SKIS.B.SS), IG Design Group (IGR.LN)
Trading Update: Three (STEM.LN), ASA International Group (ASAI.LN)
CMD/events: Elekta (EKTA.B.SS), Gestamp Automoc (GEST.SM), MediGene (MDG1.GR), Neste (NESTE.FH), Proton Motor Power Systems (PPS.LN)
Data:
Economics:
None
Markets:
WTI Crude (23-Jul): ($0.65) or (0.91%) to $71.13
€-$ (0.0013) or (0.12%) to 1.0926
£-$ (0.0025) or (0.19%) to 1.2797
€-£ +0.0009 to 0.8539
S&P 500 +0.00%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +1.84%
DAX: +16.36%
CAC: +12.98%
MIB: +16.99%
Stoxx 600: +8.74%
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