Jun 19 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly lower after last week's gains when the Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 1.5%, marking the best performance for the Stoxx 600 Index in two months. Last week's risk sentiment was supported by a combo of Fed pausing its aggressive rate tightening campaign (despite hawkish dot plot) and growing expectations of forthcoming broad stimulus measures out of China following a rate cut by the country's central bank.
It should be a relatively quiet start to the week with US Markets closed on Monday for the Juneteenth Holiday. Main focus in Europe will be the Bank of England (BoE) policy decision on Thursday with consensus pointing to 0.25% hike to 4.75%. However, markets discounting peak rate at 5.75%, while economists suggest just 5.0%. The statement, summary and MPC minutes may be scrutinized for clues on which view is correct. Comes as confidence in BoE at record low (London Times). This week, Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Norges Bank also expected to hike rates by 0.25% to 1.75% and 3.50% respectively. On the data front, EZ flash PMIs will be the focus in Europe, with EZ current account and German PPI the only other data points of note. UK will release retail sales, CPI and PPI along with Flash PMI. German chancellor Scholz will be welcoming a Chinese delegation this week (FT). UK chancellor Hunt ruled out direct support for households (FT). ECB warned Brussels against windfall levy on frozen Russian assets (FT).
Today's session sees EU energy ministers meeting with electricity market design among the topics for discussion. UK parliament sees motion relating to the 5th Report from the Committee of Privileges and a general debate on the UK tech industry following London tech week, whilst committee business includes taking evidence on Ransomware and enabling sustainable electrification of the UK economy. In central banks, BOE's Kyei panellist at 10:00BST at webinar organised by Financial Services Club. Bank of Spain publishes quarterly report on the Spanish economy and macroeconomic projections. ECB publishes its latest survey of monetary analysts at 10:00CET whilst ECB's Lane fireside chat at 13:00CET at awarding of the German Bernacer prize; de Guindos remarks at 19:10 on Tue. ECB's Schnabel chair session at 13:40CET at conf organised by Euro50 Group as ECB's de Guindos participates at 20:00CET in a prize awarding ceremony of economic journalism. European Court of Auditors publishes report on industrial policy for batteries.
Other events taking place on Mon include Paris Air Show (through Sun) and BDI Day of German Industry (through Tue), speakers today include Chancellor Scholz 13:20CET and finance minister Linder 14:25
On the corporate front, Sartorius (SRT3.GR) and Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM.FP)both lower forecasts for 2023. AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) eyed as FT reports company considering spin-off of China unit with potential listing in Hong Kong or Shanghai. Crayon Group (CRAYN.NO) exploring options including a sale, reports Bloomberg. Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) formally agrees to acquire BIOCORP Production (ALCOR.FP) for €35/share. Michelin (ML.FP) to acquire 100% of Flex Composite Group (FCG) for an enterprise value of €700M
Macro/politics
Top company news
Earnings/updates
SRT3.GR (Sartorius) -- lowers forecast for 2023
DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech) -- lowers forecast for 2023
FLOW.NA (Flow Traders) -- reports May ETP market data
M&A
BALL (Ball Corp) -- Ball Corp said to weigh ~$5B sale of its aerospace business; unit has attracted interest of BAE Systems (BA.LN), Textron (TXT) and private equity -- Reuters, citing sources
CRAYN.NO (Crayon Group Holding) -- exploring options including a sale -- Bloomberg
CLOUD.NO (Cloudberry Clean Energy) -- enters agreement with Norsk Vannkraft for sale of three hydropower plants for NOK 703M
Healthcare
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- considering spin-off of China unit with potential listing in Hong Kong or Shanghai - FT, citing people familiar with the matter
HZNP (Horizon Therapeutics) -- announces additional data from Phase 4 TEPEZZA clinical trial reinforce efficacy in people with thyroid eye disease (TED) regardless of disease activity or duration
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- Bayer preparing crackdown on internal bureaucracy amid plans to empower staff - FT
MCRB (Seres Therapeutics) -- Seres Therapeutics, Nestlé Health Science present late-breaking data on VOWST at ASM Microbe 2023
VSC.GR (4SC) -- Kinselby accepted by EMA Name Review Group (NRG)
TLX.AU (Telix Pharmaceuticals) -- notes first patient dosed in Phase II STARBURST study exploring indication expansion
EFYA.GR (PharmaCyte Biotech) -- SEC filing: SC 13D/A (Filed by Iroquois Capital Management, LLC)
Other
SHEL.LN (Shell Plc) -- Shell CEO discusses recent strategy update in an interview with the FT
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- Airbus in talks with Viva Aerobus for major narrowbody aircraft deal - Bloomberg
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- UBS likely to keep Credit Suisse's domestic business - FT
RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings) -- Rolls-Royce open to becoming a partner on single-aisle engine programs - Bloomberg
PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C.) -- Italy cuts 37% holder Sinochem's influence on Pirelli - FT
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $163.6M, (0.6%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ESSITY.B.SS (Essity) -- to hold from underperform at Jefferies
BEI.GR (Beiersdorf) -- to buy from sell at Societe Generale
FEVR.LN (Fevertree Drinks) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
FGP.LN (FirstGroup) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
GET.FP (Getlink) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
GRNG.SS (Gränges) -- short-term recommendation upgraded to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
KTA.GR (Knaus Tabbert) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Downgrades
BAS.GR (BASF SE) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
SAVE.SS (Nordnet) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
MTRS.SS (Munters Group) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
1U1.GR (1&1 AG) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
UTDI.GR (United Internet) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
Initiations
JYSK.DC (Jyske Bank) -- neutral at UBS
OVS.IM (OVS) -- outperform at Mediobanca
BUSER.SS (Bambuser) -- buy at ABG Sundal Collier
CATE.SS (Catena) -- buy at Carnegie Securities
Data
Nikkei (1.17%) to 33312.95
Hang Seng (1.29%) to 19782.67
Shanghai Composite (0.46%) to 3258.26
S&P futures (1.5) vs prior close of 4453.8
€-$ (0.0001) or (0.01%) to 1.0938
$-¥ (0.16) or (0.11%) to 141.60
€-¥ (0.20) or (0.13%) to 154.87
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