Jun 20 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended lower Tuesday as investors reacted negatively to a modest LPR cut in China. Hong Kong was worst off falling 1.5%, mainland markets were mixed. Australia higher following RBA minutes but the AUD was under pressure all day. Seoul and Taipei fell, Southeast Asia all lower, India paring opening losses. Nikkei a few points higher, Topix lower. US futures soft, Europe markets mixed. US dollar down slightly, AUD under pressure following RBA minutes, yuan weakened to lowest since Nov-22. Treasuries higher across tenors, Australian yields down at the short end, China 10Y sovereign yield close to 10M lows. The Hong Kong Hibor rate climbed to its highest in 16 years at 5.1%. WTI contracts lower, Brent slightly down. Precious metals down, industrial metals also weak.
Asia markets soft from the bell this morning but sentiment weakened further as the PBOC cut its 1Y and 5Y rates by 10 bps with the market leaning towards expectations of a 15 bps cut. This, together with a lack of follow-through from the State Council meeting last Friday on stimulus, has left investors disappointed, marked by a sharp two-day decline in the Hang Seng. Better news on the geopolitical front after Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Beijing concluded yesterday with both sides sounding optimistic over futures talks and visits by the Chinese side to the US.
RBA minutes were dovish, revealing the decision to hike cash rate in June was finely balanced. Minutes followed by a speech from Deputy Governor Bullock, who said RBA aiming for a 4.5% terminal rate to bring economy closer to more sustainable balance point. Malaysia exports fell again but at a softer pace than in April and trade surplus widened.
Nissan Motor (7201.JP) former CEO Carlos Ghosn is suing the company over his ousting and arranging his arrest for alleged financial misconduct. Softbank Group (9984.JP) Masayoshi Son said it is in position to win the race to master AI and won't be deterred by short-term losses. Alibaba (9988.HK) is to replace its chairman Daniel Zhang, confidante of Jack Ma, Joseph Tsai, to take over. Bethel Automotive Safety Systems (603596.CH) has scrapped plans to issues GDRs citing changes in domestic and overseas capital market conditions. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) is to invest $85.41B by 2032 to accelerate its EV programme. Grab Holdings (GRAB) is planning its biggest round of layoffs since the pandemic as its faces increased competition across Southeast Asia. Woodside Energy Group (WDS.AU) has given the green light for a $7.2B oil field off Mexico, its first investment since acquiring BHP's petroleum business last year.
Digest:
China lowers LPRs as expected:
LPRs were lowered with 1y down 10 bp to 3.55% as expected, while 5y also down 10 bp to 4.20%. Half of forecasters in the Reuters poll looked for a 15 bp decrease in 5y, though bulk of the remainder called for 10 bp. Article noted China last cut both LPRs in August 2022. There was some division in views this time over whether reductions would be 'asymmetric' amid calls for relatively larger cuts to the 5y rate that would provide more support to the housing market. Attention on LPRs come particularly after Friday's State Council meeting to discuss stimulus for which takeaways indicated disappointment over the lack of specific announcements amid growing concerns that economic growth momentum is faltering (Bloomberg). Furthermore, Premier Li Qiang's first scheduled overseas trip this week suggests they may not be an imminent announcement of new stimulus. Smaller than expected decrease in the 5y LPR played into broader skepticism about the size of support measures to come (Bloomberg, Reuters).
RBA decision to hike cash rate in June was finely balanced:
June RBA minutes noted members debated whether to hike or hold at this month's meeting and decision was finely balanced. Said case for holding rested on slowing growth and risk that rate hikes deal a bigger-than-expected hit to the economy given weak consumption growth. Also cited policy transmission lags and expiry of cheap fixed rate-loans resulting in tighter financial conditions. However, board settled on a rate hike given increased risk of inflation taking longer to return to target. Members observed economy remains on a narrow path to soft landing with consumption growth softening but labor market still very tight. Concluded inflation risks had shifted to the upside, warning that a prolonged period of above-target inflation risks driving up inflation expectations and require rates to remain higher for longer. Board reaffirmed willingness to do what is necessary to return inflation to target.
RBA aiming for 4.5% unemployment rate to return inflation to target:
In a speech, RBA Deputy Governor Bullock noted central bank is projecting an unemployment rate of 4.5% by mid-2025 (vs current 3.6%), which would leave economy closer to full employment and more a sustainable balance point. Said rate hikes the only tool RBA has to bring down inflation, and part of the aim is to reduce demand for labour. Noted labour demand has moderated in recent months amid surge in migration and dampening effect of rate hikes. Forward indicators also point to some softening with job vacancies trending lower and underemployment rate rising. Bullock's speech follows a hot labor market report that showed jobless rate unexpectedly fell in May amid a surge in headline employment. Data prompted economists to upgrade terminal rate forecasts. Markets also moved to price in two more rate hikes by end-2023.
Hong Kong interbank rate rises to highest in 14 years:
The 1M Hong Kong interbank rate (Hibor) rose to its highest level since 2007 Monday after protracted period of currency intervention shrank liquidity, and as cash demand climbed with quarter-end approaching. Hibor rose to 5.1%, more than double 2023 low set in February, and eliminating discount to US dollar interbank rate. Higher funding costs will help stop bearish bets on HKD but also could stymie economic recovery in city, according to Bloomberg. Article said Hibor rate is reference for mortgage loans and any further advance could pose added risk to property sector. HKMA spent around $6.5B in currency intervention since February reducing "aggregate balance" liquidity rate to lowest since 2008. Since then, currency trading strategies between HKD and USD has pushed HKD to weaker end of 7.75-7.85 per US dollar peg, triggering intervention. HKD currently at 7.82 per dollar as of Tuesday.
Blinken's visit to Beijing eases US-China tensions:
US-China relations seemingly on a more stable footing following Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Beijing (Bloomberg). President Xi highlighted progress on improving ties, noting two sides reached agreement on some issues. President Biden echoed those sentiments, saying relations are on the "right trail" (Bloomberg). Two sides remain divided over thorny issues such as Taiwan, human rights, trade and technology restrictions, and there was no agreement to resume direct military communication. Still, talks seen heralding a period of stabilization after relations deteriorated in the wake of the spy balloon incident in February. Blinken had earlier met China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang and China's top diplomat Wang Yi. Qin accepted an invitation to Washington later this year, spurring hopes of more regular dialogue at the senior level. Biden also expressed hope of meeting Xi in next several months.
Notable Gainers:
+7.7% 541729.IN (HDFC Asset Management): promoter abrdn reportedly to sell entire 10.2% stake or 21.8M shares in block deal through BofA today
+3.7% 8058.JP (Mitsubishi): Berkshire Hathaway raises stakes in Japanese trading companies, hopes to eventually hold 9.9% stakes
+1.4% 000333.CH (Midea Group): Italian government reportedly may block Electrolux's sale
+0.9% 302440.KS (SK bioscience Co.): WHO grants EUL to SK bioscience's COVID-19 vaccine SKYCovione
+0.7% 010620.KS (HYUNDAI MIPO DOCKYARD Co.): reports Jan-May new orders $2.10B vs year-ago $1.88B
Notable Decliners:
-8.2% 2138.HK (EC Healthcare): guides FY net profit to decrease by not more than 61%
-5.3% 8630.JP (Sompo): Japan's Financial Services Agency to investigate if insurers colluded to charge higher premiums
-1.6% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): chairman/CEO Daniel Zhang to step down 10-Sep; executive vice chairman Joseph Tsai will succeed Zhang as chairman; Eddie Yongming Wu, chairman of Taobao and Tmall Group, will succeed Zhang as CEO and replace Zhang on the board
-0.8% 002352.CH (S.F. Holding Co.): reports May logistics revenue CNY15.17B vs year-ago CNY13.94B
Data:
Economic:
No economic data today
Markets:
Nikkei: 18.49 or +0.06% to 33388.91
Hang Seng: (305.81) or (1.54%) to 19607.08
Shanghai Composite: (15.44) or (0.47%) to 3240.36
Shenzhen Composite: (1.05) or (0.05%) to 2080.44
ASX200: 62.90 or +0.86% to 7357.80
KOSPI: (4.59) or (0.18%) to 2604.91
SENSEX: (39.33) or (0.06%) to 63128.97
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.10) or (0.07%) to 141.7380
$-KRW: +4.42 or +0.35% to 1281.5300
A$-$: (0.01) or (0.98%) to 0.6804
$-INR: +0.18 or +0.22% to 82.0930
$-CNY: +0.05 or +0.65% to 7.1725
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