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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.13%) to 7559.18, DAX (0.55%) to 16023.13, CAC40 (0.46%) to 7260.97, STOXX 600 (0.50%) to 457.01

Jun 21 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed broadly softer Wednesday with only Italy and Greece marginally bucking the negative trend. Focus in Europe on UK inflation data, which surprised on the upside and core accelerated to new high. Terminal rate pricing for UK rates near 6% ahead of BoE decision Thursday and increased expectations for larger 50 bps move. Industry data from XpertHR showed UK pay rising at its fastest pace since 1991 at an average 6% in three months to May. Quiet macro calendar in Eurozone. Latest ECB-speak seemed to point to divisions on Eurozone inflation outlook and likelihood of September rate hike. ECB's Villeroy reiterated that most of the rate-hike cycle has been completed. Ifo Institute cut German growth outlook

    • Overseas, nothing new from Fed Chair Powell's opening remarks ahead of two-day testimony on monetary policy in Washington today. Several prominent state media and top government advisors called on China to step up its stimulus push, while continued yuan weakness chalked up lackluster recovery.

    • Tomorrow sees focus on central banks with interest rate decisions from SNB at 9:30CET, Norges Bank at 10:00CET (press conf 10:30CET), BOE at 12noon BST. The BoE is expected to hike its key Bank Rate by at least 25-bps to 4.75% tomorrow, but (as flagged above) may now increase rates by 50 bps after a hotter-than-expected inflation print. It would be the 13th consecutive rate increase since it began its tightening cycle in December 2021. Norway's central bank is expected to hike rates by 25bps to 3.50% and lift the rate path for 2023-2024 with a new peak rate seen at 4.25%. There is an outside chance that the bank may even decide to hike 50bps. SNB is expected to raise its key policy rate by 25bp to 1.75% in what many expect as the final hike in its tightening cycle for the rest of the year

    • Among European sector moves today, Energy and Banks the only two gainers. WTI Crude (Aug 23) was +1.7% to $72.4/bbl at the time of the European closing bell. Italian banks among the main outperformers, led by Unicredit (UCG.IM) +2.5% as Reuters reported the group considers shareholder payouts to be sustainable. Swedish banks saw support on local macro developments (see below). Basic Resources underperformed as markets mulled how far China might go in providing support for its faltering economic recovery. Autos sector was in focus as European car sales continuing their upward trajectory in May, rising for the 10th month in a row, boosted by demand for electric vehicles. Also focus on Volkswagen (VOW.GR) as it held its much anticipated Capital Markets Day; starting from 2023, Volkswagen Group aims for annual sales growth of between +5-7% on average until 2027. Strategic Group return on sales target raised to 9-11% by 2030.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Energy+1.04%, Banks +0.33%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.03%), Chemicals (0.04%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.32%), Construct & Mtls (0.34%), Health Care (0.43%),

      • Underperformers:

        • Real Estate (1.70%), Technology (1.56%), Basic Resources (1.46%), Media (1.01%), Financial Svcs (0.98%), Consumer Products and Services (0.88%), Utilities (0.86%), Telecom (0.82%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.79%), Autos & Parts (0.61%), Insurance (0.60%), Travel & Leisure (0.58%)

    • Macro:

      • UK

        • Sunak under pressure as UK inflation remains stubbornly high in May - POLITICO

        • Bank of England's high-pressure rate call due as mortgage time-bomb ticks - ES

        • What will be the damage from 6% mortgage rates? - Capital Economics

        • UK pay settlements hold at record 6%, XpertHR says - Reuters

        • UK net debt above 100% of GDP for first time since 1961 - The Times

      • Germany

        • ifo Economic Forecast Summer 2023: Inflation Slowly Easing - But Economy Still Faltering in Germany - link

      • USA

        • Fed's Powell, in testimony, says inflation fight has "long way to go" - Reuters

      • Sweden

        • Swedish NIER think tank sees milder downturn, rates to peak at 3.75% - Reuters

        • Swedish Housing-Start Data Paints Brighter Picture After Slump - Bloomberg

        • Sweden's FSA leaves the countercyclical buffer rate unchanged - link

      • Finland

        • Finland's central bank chief Olli Rehn announces 2024 presidential bid - yle

      • ECB

        • Traders Fully Price 4% Peak ECB Rate for First Time Since March - Bloomberg

        • ECB's Kazimir Says Core Inflation Must Be Tamed for Pause - Bloomberg

      • Italy:

        • Risk of new credit crunch warns Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti - ANSA

        • Italy's Treasury says ESM reform could boost country's credit standing - Reuters

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +47.7% HUM.SS (Humana AB SEK24.45, +7.88) -- Administrative Court in Stockholm grants Humana Assistans' appeal against IVO's decision to revoke Humana Assistans' permit

        • +23.0% TGP.LN (Tekmar Group £0.11, +0.02) -- H1 earnings; new CFO

        • +8.3% HFD.LN (Halfords Group £2.05, +0.16) -- FY earnings; Peel Hunt upgrade

        • +8.0% ALHGR.FP (Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies €10.76, +0.80) -- agreement with Shurfah Holding to sign a licensing contract in Saudi Arabia

        • +6.8% THG.LN (THG Plc £0.00, +0.05) -- issues AGM trading statement; expects H1 adjusted EBITDA £44-47M vs year-ago £32.3M; CEO gives up Special Share rights

        • +5.7% AO.LN (AO World £0.90, +0.05) -- Davy upgrade

        • +5.6% HUSQ.B.SS (Husqvarna SEK95.22, +5.06) -- Danske Bank upgrade

        • +5.6% BETCO.SS (Better Collective SEK226.00, +12.00) -- raises FY guidance

        • +4.5% HEIJM.NA (Heijmans €10.50, +0.45) -- acquisition of Van Wanrooij Bouw & Ontwikkeling for EV of €298M

        • +4.2% COK.GR (CANCOM €0.00, +1.14) -- share buyback

        • +4.0% ALFA.LN (Alfa Financial Software Holdings £1.97, +0.08) -- EQT offers 208p per share for CHP Software and Consulting Limited 59.5% stake in Alfa

        • +3.3% UCG.IM (UniCredit €20.42, +0.65) -- UniCredit considers shareholder payouts to be sustainable - Reuters

        • +2.3% MUM.GR (Mensch & Maschine Software €57.30, +1.30) -- initiated buy at Berenberg

        • +2.0% ENI.IM (Eni €0.00, +0.25) -- Energy Infrastructure Partners (EIP) among interested parties in taking a minority stake in Eni's Plenitude - Reuters

        • +1.9% SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical €3.20, +0.06) -- to present additional POSEIDON data at EASL Congress

        • +1.6% IBU.GR (IBU-tec advanced materials €25.25, +0.40) -- major order in the mid-six-digit euro range from a Chinese automotive supplier

        • +1.2% VIK1V.FH (Viking Line €17.15, +0.20) -- raises FY23 PBT guidance

        • +0.8% RNO.FP (Renault €36.03, +0.30) -- (ACEA) May new passenger car registrations

        • +0.7% LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa €9.38, +0.07) -- sale of AirPlus to SEB Kort for ~€450M with positive effect on adj EBIT margin

      • Notable Decliners

        • -27.0% ESKN.LN (Esken Ltd. £0.03, -0.01) -- FY earnings

        • -13.9% BMN.LN (Bushveld Minerals £0.03, -0.01) -- FY earnings; CEO to step down

        • -9.8% BEIJ.B.SS (Beijer Ref SEK137.30, -14.80) -- placing of 40M class B shares at SEK140/share by holder EQT

        • -5.6% MMK.AV (Mayr-Melnhof Karton €130.80, -7.60) -- H1 operating profit guidance

        • -5.6% SGL.GR (SGL Carbon €7.96, -0.48) -- €120M CB due 2028 offering

        • -5.5% ATEA.NO (Atea NOK157.80, -9.20) -- Arctic Securities downgrade

        • -5.4% KOJAMO.FH (Kojamo €8.81, -0.50) -- Barclays downgrade

        • -5.3% GAM.SW (Gam Holding CHF0.55, -0.03) -- Q1 interim financial report

        • -5.0% MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings £1.15, -0.06) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade

        • -4.8% RAY.B.SS (RaySearch Laboratories SEK59.50, -3.10) -- CEO sells 600K Class B shares

        • -4.2% AED.BB (Aedifica €61.15, -2.70) -- to raise up to €380.4M through offering of 7.3M New Shares at €52.00/share

        • -4.0% NWG.LN (NatWest Group £2.36, -0.10) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade

        • -3.8% RAT.LN (Rathbones Group £18.82, -0.74) -- Barclays downgrade

        • -2.7% EVO.SS (Evolution SEK1,369.60, -37.80) -- initiated neutral at JPMorgan

        • -2.5% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK206.90, -5.40) -- offers 208p per share for CHP Software and Consulting Limited 59.5% stake in Alfa; sale of Ellab to Novo Holdings

        • -1.6% BKG.LN (Berkeley Group Holdings £38.37, -0.61) -- FY earnings

        • -1.5% ALMA.FH (Alma Media €0.00, -0.14) -- Otava Ltd announces a mandatory public tender offer at €9.10/share in cash for all shares in Alma Media

        • -1.4% SAGA.B.SS (Sagax SEK212.20, -3.10) -- raises SEK2.06B through directed issue of 10.0M shares at SEK206/share

        • -1.3% PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C. €4.45, -0.06) -- Oddo downgrade

        • -1.2% LXS.GR (Lanxess €26.53, -0.33) -- Stifel downgrade; HSBC downgrade; Jefferies downgrade

        • -0.9% ARGX.BB (argenx €358.40, -3.10) -- US FDA approval of VYVGART Hytrulo injection for subcutaneous use in generalized myasthenia gravis

        • -0.5% VOW.GR (Volkswagen €154.90, -0.80) -- focuses its strategic alignment and launches performance programs at all brands to strengthen profitability and cash flow - CMD

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Nordics: BerGenBio (BGBIO.NO)

        • UK: DS Smith (SMDS.LN), Alpha Financial Markets Consulting (AFM.LN), Volex (VLX.LN), XPS Pensions Group (XPS.LN), Mulberry Group (MUL.LN), Speedy Hire (SDY.LN), Manolete Partners (MANO.LN)

      • Trading Update: Serco Group (SRP.LN), NCC Group (NCC.LN)

      • CMD/events: Aegon (AGN.NA)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Sweden May unemployment rate 7.9% vs consensus 8.0% and prior 7.5%

      • UK May

        • CPI +8.7% y/y vs consensus +8.4%, prior +8.7%; +0.7% m/m vs consensus +0.5%, prior +1.2%

        • RPI +11.3% y/y vs consensus +11.2%, prior +11.4%; +0.7% m/m vs consensus +0.5%, prior +1.5%

        • PPI Output +2.9% y/y vs consensus +3.6%, prior revised +5.2% from +5.4%; (0.5%) m/m vs consensus (0.1%), prior revised (0.2%) from 0.0%

        • PPI Input +0.5% y/y vs consensus +1.2%, prior revised +4.2% from +3.9%; (1.5%) m/m vs consensus (0.5%), prior revised +0.1% from (0.3%)

        • Public sector net borrowing (£19.22B) vs consensus (£14.9B), prior revised (£21.99B) from (£24.73B)

      • UK Jun CBI Industrial Trends Orders (15) vs consensus (17) and prior (17)

      • European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) May new passenger car registrations for the EU + EFTA + UK +18.2% y/y

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Aug 23): +$1.24 or +1.74% to $72.43

      • €-$ +0.0033 or +0.30% to 1.0955

      • £-$ (0.0026) or (0.20%) to 1.2737

      • €-£ +0.0044 to 0.8599

      • S&P 500 (0.34%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +1.44%

        • DAX: +15.08%

        • CAC: +12.16%

        • MIB: +16.51%

        • Stoxx 600: +7.56%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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