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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.56%) to 7459.85, DAX (1.04%) to 15821.10, CAC40 (0.62%) to 7158.31, STOXX 600 (0.37%) to 453.03

Jun 23 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended in negative territory, with Finland and Sweden markets closed for Midsummer's Eve. Markets continues to focus on central banks reaccelerating pace of tightening after BoE and Norges Bank hiked by 50 bps Thursday. Several central banks have now either resumed, stepped up pace of tightening or warned more rate hikes may be needed due to stickier inflation. Hawkish policy stance fueling more upward pressure on yields and deepening already inverted yield curves, driving more discussion about recession signaling

    • On the macro-front, Eurozone flash composite PMI for June showed the economy effectively stagnating with index registering a five-month low of 50.3 versus consensus 52.5 and prior 52.8 reading. The contraction in the manufacturing sector deepened with index at 37-month low of 43.6 versus consensus 44.8 and prior 44.8, while the expansion in the service sector slowed to a five-month low of 52.4 versus consensus 54.5 and prior 55.1. New business trends in goods and services weakened in June with new orders dropping for the first time since January. Larger-than-expected decline in French PMI points to 0.5% contraction in Q2 GDP. The data is a new setback for President Macron, who has been counting on economic growth to meet his deficit reduction targets. UK retail sales surprised to the upside in May, with a 0.3% increase versus consensus for a 0.2% drop and prior 0.5% gain. Despite the challenging macro backdrop (sticky inflation, higher rates), the consumer is showing resilience. GfK consumer sentiment was up three points to -24, the fifth consecutive gain, and highest for 17 months. Analysts are likely to reflect on whether this will be sustainable as consumers run down excess savings; and after the BoE hiked rates to 5% Thursday and more tightening anticipated. Related, despite outsized hike by the Bank of England (BoE), GBP/USD declined and EUR/GBP rallied. Move in UK yields suggests BoE may be regaining some lost credibility as markets had factored in higher inflation risk premium. Analysts note swings in credibility of this magnitude rare for DM central banks. Markets currently discounting ~70% probability of 50bp hike in August, while further 50bp hike in September currently priced with ~40% probability

    • In M&A news, Neptune Energy announced that Eni International (ENI.IM) has signed a sale and purchase agreement to acquire Neptune Energy Group Limited whilst Vår Energi (VAR.NO) simultaneously signed an inter-conditional sale and purchase agreement to acquire Neptune Energy Norge AS for an aggregate enterprise value of $4.9B in total; also, Telecom Italia (TIT.IM) confirmed granting an exclusivity period to KKR, IHS Holding ) -- said to hire JPMorgan to help ward off hostile takeover. On the reporting front, DACH names in focus after Siemens Energy (ENR.GR) withdrew its profit guidance due to Siemens Gamesa but maintained group revenue guidance and Hornbach Holding (HBH.GR) posted Q1 numbers. In the afternoon, SMA Solar Technology (S92.GR) raised its guidance, now seeing FY23 EBITDA between €230-270M vs a prior guidance of €135M-175M. On the IPO front, thyssenkrupp (TKA.GR)'s nucera set and indicative price range of €19.00-21.50/share for its debut IPO and Ferretti (YACHT.IM) set an offer price of €3.00 for its IPO on Euronext Milan. Elsewhere, ASML Holding (ASML.NA) might face new Dutch export controls restricting more chipmaking machines from being sent to China, the Church of England Pensions Board to divest from fossil fuel firms, including Shell and BP and Sinochem is expected to retain stake in Pirelli (PIRC.IM) despite move by Italian government to limit its influence

    • Looking ahead to next week's calendars (please see our StreetAccount Summary - Europe Week Ahead: June 26-30 attached below) EU leaders meeting, Riksbank policy decision, Bundesbank's monthly report, ECB Forum on Central Banking, Germany Jun Ifo survey, unemployment change & preliminary CPI, Switzerland KOF and UK Q1 final GDP, as well as earnings/updates from Prosus (PRX.NA), H&M (HM.B.SS), Associated British Foods (ABF.LN), Sodexo (SW.FP) and B&M European Value Retail (BME.LN) will be the main events. Other companies due to report include Wise (WISE.LN), Trigano (TRI.FP), OVH Groupe (OVH.FP), Serco Group (SRP.LN), Moonpig Group (MOON.LN), Telecom Plus (TEP.LN), PZ Cussons (PZC.LN), Petrofac Ltd. (PFC.LN) and Hunting (HTG.LN)

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Health Care +0.68%, Telecom +0.62%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.59%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.53%, Insurance +0.48%, Media +0.08%, Chemicals (0.06%), Financial Svcs (0.24%)

      • Underperformers: Energy (2.21%), Basic Resources (1.69%), Technology (1.42%), Banks (1.38%), Travel & Leisure (1.23%), Real Estate (1.15%), Consumer Products and Services (0.86%), Retail (0.53%), Autos & Parts (0.50%), Utilities (0.50%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.47%)

    • Macro:

      • Rich nations pledge to unlock hundreds of billions of dollars for climate fight (Reuters)

      • President Macron calls for an international taxation deal to finance climate efforts (Politico and F24)

      • France is falling apart at the seams (Spectator)

      • Germany to ease immigration law to attract skilled workers (dw)

      • 'Cracks appearing' in Giorgia Meloni's coalition with Forza Italia (Times)

      • Meloni and Prince Mohammed battle over World Expo 2030 (FT)

      • Majority of voters believe Brexit was a mistake (Telegraph)

      • UK Chancellor and mortgage lenders agreed on actions to taken to help struggling mortgage holders (Gov UK)

      • What can Rishi Sunak do to tackle inflation? (BBC)

      • Spain's watchdog lacks tools to prove collusion on deposits for savers, chair says (Reuters)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +19.4% S92.GR (SMA Solar Technology €104.50, +16.95) -- now sees FY23 EBITDA between €230-270M vs prior €135-175M, FactSet €167.3M

        • +4.9% GSK.LN (GSK Plc £14.26, +0.67) -- reaches a confidential settlement with James Goetz in relation to Zantac litigation

        • +3.4% FAN.LN (Volution Group £3.69, +0.12) -- completes acquisition of I-Vent d.o.o in Slovenia and Croatia

        • +3.3% VAR.NO (Vår Energi NOK27.21, +0.86) -- to acquire Neptune Energy

        • +1.9% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €6.98, +0.13) -- nucera sets indicative price range of €19.00-21.50/share for IPO through Citi and Deutsche Bank

        • +1.7% HBH.GR (Hornbach Holding €69.30, +1.15) -- Q1

        • +1.4% XPS.LN (XPS Pensions Group £1.76, +0.02) -- confirms that it is currently in discussions with SEI in relation to a possible partnership with the National Pensions Trust

        • +0.8% HARB.B.DC (Harboes Bryggeri DKK75.60, +0.60) -- reports FY

        • +0.3% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF3.06, +0.01) -- closing of CHF 5M private placement; exclusive distribution agreement for PKU GOLIKE in the Middle East

        • +0.2% SZG.GR (Salzgitter €33.74, +0.06) -- transfers 23% of BMBYH's share capital to Borusan Holding A.Ş

      • Notable Decliners

        • -58.2% SESL.FP (SES-imagotag €69.80, -97.00) -- considers Gotham City Research report contains numerous gross inaccuracies and/or misunderstandings; shares resume trading

        • -54.3% NSF.LN (Non-Standard Finance £0.00, -0.00) -- decides alternative transaction should be implemented; will result in no recovery for NSF's shareholders

        • -37.2% ENR.GR (Siemens Energy €14.68, -8.69) -- guidance

        • -15.5% HOTC.LN (Hotel Chocolat Group £1.18, -0.22) -- FY trading statement

        • -6.6% VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems DKK180.06, -12.78) -- Siemens Energy withdraws profit guidance due to Siemens Gamesa

        • -3.6% NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro NOK62.32, -2.36) -- increases price in tender offer for Alumetal to PLN 82/share

        • -2.5% SIE.GR (Siemens AG €156.58, -4.00) -- Siemens Energy withdraws profit guidance due to Siemens Gamesa

        • -2.4% BWY.LN (Bellway £19.59, -0.49) -- HSBC downtrade

        • -2.0% CAPD.LN (Capital £1.00, -0.02) -- to sell up to a combined 5.0M common shares in the company at a placing price of 98.5 pence per Placing Share

        • -1.8% ASML.NA (ASML Holding €640.10, -11.80) -- to face new Dutch export controls restricting more chipmaking machines from being sent to China - Bloomberg

        • -1.6% MUB.GR (Muhlbauer Holding €60.00, -1.00) -- FY earnings

        • -1.3% BP.LN (BP £4.54, -0.06) -- Church of England Pensions Board to divest from fossil fuel firms,

        • -1.0% ENI.IM (Eni €12.76, -0.13) -- to acquire Neptune Energy

    • EU companies reporting on Monday:

      • Earnings: MedinCell (MEDCL.FP)

      • Trading Update: Associated British Foods (ABF.LN)

      • CMD/events: Yara International (YAR.NO), Renault (RNO.FP)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • UK

        • Jun consumer confidence (24) vs consensus (26), prior (27) - Gfk

        • May retail sales (2.1%) y/y vs consensus (2.6%), prior revised (3.4%) from (3.0%)

      • Jun flash manufacturing PMI

        • France 45.5 vs consensus 45.4, prior 45.7

        • Germany 41.0 vs consensus 43.5, prior 43.2

        • Eurozone 43.6 vs consensus 44.8, prior 44.8

        • UK 46.2 vs consensus 46.8, prior 47.1

      • Jun flash services PMI

        • France 48.0 vs consensus 52.0, prior 52.5

        • Germany 54.1 vs consensus 56.2, prior 57.2

        • Eurozone 52.4 vs consensus 54.5, prior 55.1

        • UK 53.7 vs consensus 54.8, prior 55.2

      • Spain Q1 GDP +0.6% q/q vs preliminary +0.5%; +4.2% y/y vs preliminary +3.8%

      • Netherlands Q1 GDP (0.3%) q/q vs preliminary (0.7%); +1.9% y/y vs preliminary +1.9%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Aug 23): ($0.93) or (1.34%) to $68.58

      • €-$ (0.0074) or (0.68%) to 1.0886

      • £-$ (0.0036) or (0.28%) to 1.2712

      • €-£ (0.0034) to 0.8563

      • S&P 500 (0.79%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +0.11%

        • DAX: +13.63%

        • CAC: +10.57%

        • MIB: +14.74%

        • Stoxx 600: +6.62%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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