Jun 27 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian equities finished mixed Tuesday. Greater China led by a surge on the Hang Seng, which gained almost 2%, strong gains in mainland bourses too. Australia gained following on higher commodity prices. Losses for South Korea and Taiwan, Southeast Asia mixed, India higher. Japan saw its third consecutive down day but was off its lows of the session. US futures higher, Europe paring early gains. US dollar lower; AUD benefited from yuan and commodity price strength. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields higher. Crude futures now flat after being higher for much of the day, copper higher on shortage concerns, iron ore 4% higher. Precious metals higher.
Asia equities mixed with China markets notably higher but tech stocks and associated benchmarks lower. Greater China stocks supported by comments from Premier Li after he said China is still on course to reach its FY GDP growth target of 5% as Q2 growth will be faster than Q1, and that policies to support demand would be launched. Yuan was also stronger after the PBOC set its reference point at a higher-than-expected level for second day in a row while China state banks were reported to be selling dollars in offshore markets. Some support too from news US Treasury Secretary Yellen is to visit Beijing in July to meet with her Chinese counterpart. Elsewhere, overnight weakness on the Nasdaq weighed on tech-heavy benchmarks in Seoul, Taipei and Tokyo but a spike in commodity prices helped the ASX to snap a four-day losing streak.
The Japan government is to buyout and privatize JSR Corp (4185.JP) to take direct control of global leader in chipmaking compounds. Nissan Motor (7201.JP) shareholders backed CEO and other board nominees at its first AGM since renewing deal with Renault. HSBC (5.HK) is to offer trading of crypto-linked ETFs to customers in Hong Kong as city pushes to establish itself as a hub for alternative asset classes. The Hong Kong-based Cheng family is to buy the NWS Holdings (659.HK) shares it does not already own in a HK$35.5B ($4.5B) deal that will also lower debt at the company.
Digest:
China Premier Li says economy on track to hit growth target:
In his address at Summer Davos, Chinese premier Li Qiang said China is still on track to hit its annual growth target of around 5% and Q2 growth expected to be faster than Q1. Li acknowledged China's development still "unbalanced and inefficient" and per capital economic output still low. Li argued companies, rather than governments, should decide how to "de-risk" supply chains, a repeat of his comments in Germany last week. ANZ economist Raymond Yeung noted recent reception of many business leaders reflects that China wants to do business, depoliticize trade and investment issues. Li also said Beijing will roll out "more practical, effective measures" for opening up without elaboration. Bloomberg noted lack of specific measures somewhat a disappointment for investors waiting for policy boost. However OCBC economist Tommy Xie interpreted Li's remarks as a preview of upcoming stimulus aimed at shoring up growth.
China extends fight against weak yuan with higher fixing, banks selling dollars offshore:
PBOC set its daily yuan reference at a stronger-than-expected level for a second day. Onshore yuan rate set at 7.2098 per dollar, 111 pips stronger than Bloomberg estimate. Came after yuan suffered biggest decline in nearly five months Monday as pessimism over China's growth prospects. Lack of more stimulus measures and monetary policy divergence from developed nations also weighted. OCBC strategist noted intervention only likely to slow yuan's depreciation pace. Meanwhile Reuters reported major state-owned banks seen selling dollars in offshore market Tuesday, citing sources saying 7.25 level remains key threshold. Added state banks sold dollars Monday ahead of onshore close to bid up yuan's closing price. State-owned China Securities Journal said pressure on yuan will gradually ease as economy improves due to pro-growth measures. Added dollar strengthening is hard to sustain, and yuan will revert to "a normal state of two-way moves."
BOJ underlying inflation measures back to peak:
BOJ underlying inflation metrics showed trimmed mean up 3.1% y/y in May, up from 3.0% in the previous month and matching peak readings in Dec/Jan. Similarly, weighted median rose 1.4%, returning to its high point in December. Other indicators hit new highs -- mode inflation edged up to 2.9% from 2.8% in April (corresponding December reading was 1.6%), while inflation DI climbed to 76.1% from 75.1% indicative of stronger breadth in the proportion of items seeing price increases. Results come amid increasing debate over the BOJ's inflation outlook scenario, which looks for inflation to clearly decelerate from around mid-FY23. Recall Summary of Opinions for the latest MPM included more board member comments on upside risks to inflation, including thoughts core CPI may not fall below the 2% target. Recall that Governor Ueda has said January was the tentative inflation peak, though since played up uncertainties to the outlook and acknowledged the possibility of upside surprises. Economists looking for a YCC tweak in July cited expectations it would be accompanied by further upward revisions to inflation forecasts in the July Outlook Report.
BOJ July YCC tweak speculation remains alive:
Nikkei discussed takeaways from latest developments surrounding yen weakness, inflation and BOJ policy supporting the case for near-term YCC amendments. With government officials strengthening verbal intervention against one-sided yen volatility, some have speculated BOJ will move to revise its policies on the grounds that YCC is compounding yen pressure. Article cited economists that affirmed yen depreciation helps chances of a YCC revision as early as July. Additionally, a remark in the BOJ MPM Summary of Opinions that "a revision to the treatment of YCC should be discussed at an early stage" garnered attention. Another noted that while the latest BOJ Bond Market Survey for May showed a sharp improvement in the market functioning DI, it remains well in negative territory at minus 46 -- sustaining thoughts the BOJ may revise/scrap YCC to alleviate depressed market functioning. Meanwhile, inflation remains above the 2% inflation target and the story suggested that stronger than expected readings going forward will likely lead to stronger calls for policy revisions.
Thailand's Pita says he has enough Senate votes to become PM:
Reuters reported Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party (MFP) that won the most seats in May's election, said he has enough support in Senate to become Thailand's next prime minister. MFP to form eight-party coalition after winning 312 seats in lower house but must secure 376 votes in joint sitting with Senate next month convened to select PM. Pita said MFP was in process of explaining position to senators on lèse majesté laws, warned senators not to use intention to amend law as excuse to block election as PM as it would "pit institution against the people". Said such a move would be "inappropriate and dangerous" (BangkokPost). Reiterated MFP would look to maintain constitutional monarchy, said amendment is not revocation. Added talks with senators on matter showed they are starting to understand there must be changes to law.
Notable Gainers:
+11.4% 659.HK (NWS Holdings): CTFE intends to acquire it for HK$9.15/share in cash
+10.0% 000723.CH (Shanxi Meijin Energy): Subsidiary attains CNY1.56B contract
+7.1% 4185.JP (JSR Corp): JIC to acquire JSR for ¥4,350/share
+6.7% BS6.SP (Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)): Confirms order for six methanol dual-fuel 9K-teu containerships from Maersk; reports YTD new orders $6.5B vs FY23 target $3.00B
Notable Decliners:
-14.9% 973.HK (L'Occitane International): Reports FY net income attributable €115.1M vs FactSet €213.7M; downgraded at HSBC, CLSA and BofA
-7.3% 601916.CH (China Zheshang Bank): Completes A-share rights issue raising CNY9.76B at CNY2.02/share
-5.0% 017800.KS (Hyundai Elevator Co.): Shareholder Schindler reduces stake from 16.18% to 15.95%
Data:
Economic:
No economic data today
Markets:
Nikkei: (160.48) or (0.49%) to 32538.33
Hang Seng: 354.00 or +1.88% to 19148.13
Shanghai Composite: 38.82 or +1.23% to 3189.44
Shenzhen Composite: 27.05 or +1.35% to 2029.98
ASX200: 39.50 or +0.56% to 7118.20
KOSPI: (0.81) or (0.03%) to 2581.39
SENSEX: 179.09 or +0.28% to 63149.09
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.08 or +0.05% to 143.6030
$-KRW: (6.42) or (0.49%) to 1299.1700
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.28% to 0.6696
$-INR: (0.01) or (0.01%) to 81.9940
$-CNY: (0.03) or (0.42%) to 7.2073
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