Jun 28 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets finished today's session firmer, near best levels, amidst mixed US equities. Tech and real estate stronger; healthcare and banks in focus. Treasuries mostly firmer after a backup in yields on Tuesday. Dollar index up 0.5% with outsized gains coming against sterling. Gold off 0.1%. Bitcoin futures down 1.2%. WTI crude up 2.3%, erasing Tuesday's slide after today's big US inventory draw.
European equity market sentiment remained positive after higher finish on Tuesday. Soft landing hopes in the US after strong economic data helping market tone. However, in Europe worries also over risk of central bank policy mistake as ECB continue to talk tough on inflation and BoE tipped to continue to tighten aggressively. Bloomberg sources said some officials want faster reduction in bond portfolio with outright bond sales or phasing out of reinvestment of bonds bought during pandemic. Reuters sources also said majority of officials increasingly favor September rate hike.
On macro data front, German consumer confidence data missed, while French consumer confidence better than forecast. Eurozone M3 money supply growth slows again. M3 money supply growth up 1.4% y/y in May versus consensus 1.5% and prior 1.9%. Loans to households up 2.1% versus prior 2.5% and loans to non-financial corporations up 4.0% versus 4.6% increase in April. Italian inflation cools to 14-month low, though offers limited reassurances to the ECB. June Italian CPI cools to +6.7% y/y vs consensus of +6.7% and prior month reading of +8.0%. On the month, CPI in at +0.1% in June vs consensus +0.1% and prior +0.3%. In the UK, Sky News reported government ministers and regulator Ofwat have started discussion to place UK's biggest water company, Thames Water, into special administration regime (SAR). In related news, London Times suggested water companies are drawing up plans to increase household bills by up to 40% to tackle consequences of climate change and sewage leaks.
On the reporting front, DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich) expects Q2 adj. EBITDA to be in a range of €400 - 420M; guides FY adj. EBITDA of between €1.8B -1.9B vs year-ago €2.28B. Out of the UK, Mulberry Group (MUL.LN) reports FY EPS 19.1p vs year-ago 32.2p whilst Atalaya Mining (ATYM.LN) maintains FY23 copper production guidance in the range of 53,000 to 55,000 tonnes. Swiss Life (SHLF.SW) confirms its business strategy and implementation and is well on track to achieve or exceed the Swiss Life 2024 Group financial targets.
In other corporate updates, The Irish State places ~132M shares in AIB Group plc at €3.64/each via BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs International and Goodbody Stockbrokers. Bloomberg reports that UBS Group (UBSG.SW) is preparing to cut more than half of Credit Suisse workforce starting next month In the Netherlands.
In M&A news, (BNP.FP) BNP Paribas and Orange (ORA.FP) said to have reached an agreement for Orange Bank according to Les Echos. Ocado (OCDO.LN) shares traded lower on the back of media report citing traders pointing to unspecified media report that Amazon (AMZN) had denied reports it would make bid. Arkema (AKE.FP) agrees to acquire Glenwood Private Equity's 54% stake in PI Advanced Materials for €728M enterprise value.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Technology +1.92%, Real Estate +1.78%, Autos & Parts +1.39%, Construct & Mtls +1.22%, Travel & Leisure +1.18%, Chemicals +1.13%, Financial Svcs +1.05%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.81%, Consumer Products and Services +0.77%, Media +0.73%, Telecom +0.71%
Underperformers: Basic Resources (1.21%), Insurance (0.24%), Retail (0.08%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.04%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.12%, Oil & Gas+0.33%, Banks +0.42%, Utilities +0.48%
Macro:
ECB policymakers see little chance of rate hike pause as inflation stubborn -- Reuters
ECB chief economist warns markets against pricing in rate cuts within the next two years -- CNBC
ECB rate pause needs clear sign of core easing, Wunsch says -- Bloomberg
Some ECB officials weigh faster reduction of bond portfolio -- Bloomberg
Bank of England ratesetter Dhingra predicts fall in inflation -- London Times
EU rejects US offer to end steel tariff dispute -- FT
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Spain:
Spain to double 2030 biogas, green hydrogen targets under draft plan -- Reuters
Greece:
Loans and deposits lower in May according to Bank of Greece - Kathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+28.9% REVB.LN (Revolution Beauty Group £0.25, +0.06) -- trading suspension ends; boohoo Group statement following Revolution Beauty's first AGM yesterday
+8.0% MAGI.SS (MAG Interactive SEK14.74, +1.08) -- earnings
+7.5% ELG.GR (Elmos Semiconductor €70.00, +4.90) -- divestment
+5.9% DX.LN (DX (Group) £0.32, +0.02) -- EV investment
+5.6% HEX.NO (Hexagon Composites NOK26.62, +1.42) -- orders
+4.8% DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich €97.30, +4.49) -- trading update
+3.2% AKE.FP (Arkema €85.00, +2.60) -- acquisiiton
+2.9% RBW.LN (Rainbow Rare Earths £0.09, -0.00) -- agreement with Bosveld Phosphates (Pty) Limited to allow 100% ownership of the Phalaborwa Project in South Africa
+2.2% LOK.LN (Lok 'n' Store Group £8.24, +0.18) -- trading update
+2.0% MNBA.DC (Møns Bank DKK207.00, +4.00) -- raises FY23 PBT guidance
+1.4% P911.GR (Porsche €109.25, +1.50) -- confirms FY23 forecast -- AGM
Notable Decliners
-14.3% PROC.LN (Procook Group £0.23, -0.04) -- trading update
-14.0% AFRN.LN (Aferian £0.12, -0.02) -- trading update
-13.5% JAY.LN (Bluejay Mining £0.02, -0.00) -- placing and operational update
-5.7% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £5.26, -0.32) -- Reuters cites traders pointing to unspecified media report that Amazon had denied reports it would make bid
-5.7% EKF.LN (EKF Diagnostics Holdings £0.33, -0.02) -- CFO steps down
-5.4% ZAL.GR (Zalando €26.29, -1.51) -- Bernstein reiterates underperform and questions long term targets
-4.4% CCAP.GR (CORESTATE Capital Holding €0.40, -0.02) -- strategic course and core business update
-4.4% SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding CHF513.60, -23.60) -- trading update
-4.3% HUNT.NO (Hunter Group NOK0.10, -0.00) -- reverse share split
-3.5% MEN.LN (Molecular Energies £1.23, -0.04) -- earnings
-2.8% MUL.LN (Mulberry Group £2.45, -0.07) -- earnings
-2.6% NANO.LN (Nanoco Group £0.19, -0.01) -- notes receipt of General Meeting requisition notice from Aurora Nominees Limited and Securities Services Nominees Limited
-2.6% WIHN.SW (WISeKey International Holding CHF0.17, -0.00) -- reverse stock split update
-2.1% A5G.ID (AIB Group €3.74, -0.08) -- Irish State places ~132M shares in AIB Group plc at €3.64/sh
-2.0% AFRY.SS (AFRY AB SEK157.80, -3.20) -- Handelsbanken short-term recommendation downgrade
-1.9% ANOD.B.SS (Addnode Group SEK121.10, -2.40) -- Handelsbanken short-term recommendation downgrade
-1.6% ADL.GR (ADLER Real Estate €8.42, -0.14) -- German prosecutors searching the offices of ADLER Real Estate - Bloomberg
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Zumtobel Group (ZAG.AV)
Nordics: H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS)
UK: Moonpig Group (MOON.LN), Mulberry Group (MUL.LN), De La Rue (DLAR.LN)
Trading Update: B&M European Value Retail (BME.LN), Serco (SRP.LN), OVH Groupe (OVH.FP), Hunting (HTG.LN)
CMD/events: Sanofi (SAN.FP) vaccines 14:00BST, BT Group (BT.A.LN) pensions 14:00BST, BFF Bank (BFF.IM)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone May M3 Money Supply +1.4% y/y vs cons +1.5% and prior +1.9%
Germany Jul GfK Consumer Confidence (25.4) vs cons (23.0) and prior revised (24.4) from (24.2)
France Jun Consumer Confidence 85 vs cons 81 and prior 83
Italy May PPI (4.3%) y/y vs cons (9.4%) and prior (1.5%)
Italy Jun Prelim CPI +6.4% y/y vs cons +6.8% and prior +7.6%; 0.0% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior +0.3%
EU Harmonised: +6.7% y/y vs cons +6.7% and prior +8.0%; +0.1% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior +0.3%
Assogestioni reports Italy May total net out flows (€4.96B) vs prior outflow (€3.88B)
Switzerland Jun ZEW Expectations (30.8) vs cons (32.3) and prior (32.2)
Spain May Retail Sales +6% y/y vs cons +0.6% and prior +5.5%
Norway May Retail Sales (2.2%) y/y vs cons (5.7%) and prior (6.4%); +1.2% m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior (1.2%)
Denmark May Retail Sales (0.4%) y/y vs cons (4.3%) and prior revised to (5.8%) from (6.0%)
Ireland May Retail Sales +5.1% y/y vs cons +6.9% and prior revised +7.0% from +7.5%; (1.6%) m/m vs cons +0.5% and prior +2.8%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Aug 23): +$1.55 or +2.29% to $69.25
€-$ (0.0049) or (0.45%) to 1.0915
£-$ (0.0114) or (0.89%) to 1.2636
€-£ +0.0038 to 0.8638
S&P 500 +0.04%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +0.65%
DAX: +14.55%
CAC: +12.55%
MIB: +16.53%
Stoxx 600: +7.33%
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