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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.80% to 7531.53, DAX +1.26% to 16147.90, CAC40 +1.19% to 7400.06, STOXX 600 +1.16% to 461.93

Jun 30 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended the week higher. Risk appetite benefiting from soft landing hopes outweighing expectations of more central bank tightening, particularly in the US. Supports expectations of more BoE tightening. Most ECB rhetoric this week also supported further rates hikes despite several sell-side research reports starting to flag growing signs of disinflation. In sectors, real estate and industrials outperform whilst telecom the outsized laggard.

    • On a busy macro calendar, focus on the Eurozone flash CPI data for June, which saw slowdown in headline +5.5% y/y vs consensus +5.6% and prior +6.1% and +0.3% m/m in line with forecast and above prior 0.0%, but core accelerated for the first time in three months. Eurozone May unemployment reported stable at 6.5%. Other macro-releases included a beat in May German Retail sales +0.4% m/m vs consensus 0.0% but below prior +0.7% revised from +0.8% and a bigger than expected Germany Jun unemployment change +28K vs consensus +13K and prior revised +13K from +9K. In France, Jun preliminary CPI a touch softer +4.5% y/y vs consensus +4.6% and below prior +5.1%, in line with consensus on a m/m basis +0.2%, however up from prior (0.1%) whilst PPI hotter than expected +5.8% y/y vs consensus +4.9% but below prior +7.0%; May consumer spending +0.5% in line with forecast and above prior revised (0.8%) from (1.0%). In UK, Q1 final GDP in line with prelim. readings +0.1% q/q and +0.2% y/y, Lloyds Bank business confidence hit a 13-month high in June. Nationwide house price data was little changed from prior month. Elsewhere, Switzerland May retail sales missed (1.1%) y/y vs consensus (2.5%) and prior revised (4.0%) from (3.7%) whilst Jun KOF leading indicator better than expected 90.8 vs consensus 89.1 and prior revised 91.4 from 90.2.

    • On the reporting front, Sodexo (SW.FP) reported Q3 numbers, whilst ENGIE.FP (ENGIE) upgraded its 2023 guidance due to strong results recorded by GEMS; still in France, Air Liquide (AI.FP) sold its 19% minority stake in Hydrogenics to Cummins and Lagardere (MMB.FP) extended the maturity of its financial liquidity. In the UK, Pendragon (PDG.LN) announced positive trading momentum has continued in Q2, whilst CRH (CRH.LN) commenced the $1B second stage of the wider $3B buyback programme and Barratt Developments (BDEV.LN) agreed the future sale of 604 homes to Citra Living for total cash consideration of £168.4M. Elsewhere, US and the Netherlands are set to further restrict sales of chipmaking equipment to China, with the news affecting shares in ASML Holding (ASML.NA) down ~(3%) at the open; also, Aegon (AGN.NA) supervision will transfer from Dutch Central Bank to Bermuda Monetary Authority, with financial targets for 2025 unchanged.

    • Looking ahead to next week EU econ-calendar, main releases on Monday will include, amongst others, slew of Jun manufacturing PMIs for Italy, Spain, Switzerland, others as well as final reads for Eurozone, France, Germany, UK and Switzerland Jun CPI.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Real Estate+1.67%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.43%, Construct & Mtls +1.38%, Health Care +1.37%, Financial Svcs +1.35%, Chemicals +1.30%, Travel & Leisure +1.29%, Retail +1.21%, Banks +1.21%, Oil & Gas +1.20%, Persnl & HHold Goods +1.17%

      • Underperformers

        • Telecom +0.21%, Utilities +0.77%, Basic Resources +0.77%, Media +0.81%, Autos & Parts +0.89%, Technology +0.94%, Food & Beverage +1.09%, Insurance +1.13%

    • Macro:

      • ECB

        • Sticky inflation complicating ECB rate path, Makhlouf says -- Reuters

        • Euro-Area Core Inflation Quickens Again in Setback for ECB -- Bloomberg

      • EU

        • EU agrees to de-risk from China and debates what this means -- Reuters

        • Hungary opposes EU plan to grant more money to Ukraine, Orban says -- Reuters

      • UK

        • UK Government funding to save pubs for communities -- Gov.UK

        • The crisis facing the UK water industry -- FT

        • Column: Imagine UK inflation if sterling were actually weak -- Reuters

      • Germany

        • May retail sales bump in Germany not here to stay, analysts say -- Reuters

        • Between the Superpowers: What Is Germany's China Policy? -- The Diplomat

      • France

        • France Pushes Back on New EU Power Reform Proposal -- Bloomberg

        • France braced for more riots after third night of violence -- FT

        • France is in danger of descending into anarchy -- The Spectator

      • Italy:

        • Italy's coalition postpones debate over European bailout fund for 4 months -- Reuters

        • Senior China Diplomat Dispatched to Italy to Keep Nation in Belt and Road Initiative -- Bloomberg

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +50.0% RENX.LN (Renalytix £1.03, +0.38) -- KidneyIntelX.dkd prognostic test granted US FDA De Novo marketing authorization

        • +11.1% ST5.GR (STEICO €29.95, +3.05) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade

        • +7.4% PFC.LN (Petrofac £0.77, +0.05) -- $700M EPC project

        • +5.2% REC.LN (Record £0.98, +0.05) -- FY earnings

        • +4.6% BEAN.SW (BELIMO Holding CHF439.60, +19.80) -- Stifel upgrade

        • +4.5% GLE.LN (MJ Gleeson £3.65, +0.16) -- £50.4M contract

        • +4.3% LEG.GR (LEG Immobilien €53.48, +2.18) -- FY guidance

        • +3.7% PGS.NO (PGS ASA NOK5.90, +0.21) -- SEB upgrade

        • +3.5% GLJ.GR (GRENKE €26.70, +0.90) -- Pareto upgrade

        • +3.3% NKR.NO (Nekkar NOK6.32, +0.20) -- NOK85M contract

        • +3.3% DRX.LN (Drax Group £5.78, +0.18) -- Credit Suisse upgrade

        • +3.2% SCATC.NO (Scatec NOK70.30, +2.15) -- Grootfontein solar projects in South Africa reach financial close

        • +2.5% ECMPA.NA (Eurocommercial Properties €21.36, +0.52) -- Van Lanschot Kempen upgrade

        • +1.0% NOVN.SW (Novartis CHF89.41, +0.87) -- Bausch + Lomb acquires XIIDRA (dry eye) and certain other assets from Novartis for up to $2.5B

        • +1.0% NDX1.GR (Nordex €11.38, +0.11) -- initiated buy at Deutsche Bank

      • Notable Decliners

        • -9.8% LOOP.LN (LoopUp Group £0.02, -0.00) -- "revises upwad operaitng loss and extends debt facilities to 2024

        • -8.7% GNFT.FP (GENFIT €4.69, -0.34) -- Phase III ELATIVE trial of elafibranor topline data results

        • -5.7% APAM.NA (Aperam €28.44, -1.74) -- Degroof downgrade; Oddo downgrade

        • -5.4% SMHN.GR (SÜSS MicroTec €23.75, -1.40) -- Suess MicroTec holder Luxempart offers 856,339 shares - Bloomberg, citing terms (29-Jun, post European market close)

        • -4.8% SPEX.SW (Spexis CHF0.41, -0.02) -- engages M&A advisor

        • -3.6% BG.AV (BAWAG Group €40.52, -1.58) -- Petrus Advisers letter to European Banking Authority

        • -3.3% OJM.IM (Openjobmetis €9.02, -0.30) -- offer to buy back up to 1.5M shares for €9.00/share in cash

        • -1.1% ASML.NA (ASML Holding €647.50, -7.10) -- US, Netherlands set to further restrict sales of chipmaking equipment to China - Reuters

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings: Porvair (PRV.LN), Wynnstay Group (WYN.LN)

      • Trading Update: Repsol (REP.SM)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Netherlands Jun preliminary CPI +5.7% y/y vs consensus +5.8% and prior +6.1%

      • Denmark

        • Q1 GDP +1.7% y/y vs preliminary +2.4%

        • May Unemployment Rate 2.4% vs consensus 2.4% and prior 2.4%

      • Germany

        • May Retail Sales (3.6%) y/y vs consensus (4.3%) and prior (4.3%)

        • Jun Unemployment Change +28K vs consensus +13K and prior revised +9K

        • Jun Unemployment Rate 5.7% vs consensus 5.6% and prior 5.6%

      • UK

        • Q1 GDP +0.2% y/y vs preliminary +0.2%

        • UK Jun Nationwide House Prices (3.5%) y/y vs consensus (4.0%) and prior (3.4%)

      • France

        • May Consumer Goods Spending +0.5% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior revised (0.8%) from (1.0%)

        • May PPI +5.8% y/y vs consensus +4.9% and prior +7.0%

        • Jun Preliminary CPI +4.5% y/y vs consensus +4.6% and prior +5.1%;+0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior (0.1%)

      • Austria

        • Jun Preliminary CPI +8.0% y/y vs consensus +8.0% and prior +9.0%

        • May PPI +2.9% y/y vs consensus +4.1% and prior revised +4.4% from +4.6%

      • Switzerland

        • Jun KOF Leading Indicators 90.8 vs consensus 89.1 and prior revised 91.4 from 90.2

        • May Retail Sales (1.1%) y/y vs consensus (2.5%) and prior revised (4.0%) from (3.7%)

      • Italy May Unemployment Rate 7.6% vs consensus 7.9% and prior 7.8%

      • Eurozone

        • May Unemployment Rate 6.5% vs consensus 6.5% and prior 6.5%

        • Jun preliminary CPI +5.5% y/y vs consensus +5.6% and prior +6.1%; +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior 0.0%

        • Core CPI +5.4% y/y vs consensus +5.5% and prior +5.3%

      • Greece

        • Apr Retail Sales (5.2%) y/y vs consensus (6.8%) and prior (8.7%)

        • May Unemployment Rate 10.8% y/y vs consensus 11.1% and prior revised 11.3% from 11.2%

        • May PPI (12.9%) vs consensus (16.0%) and prior (13.3%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (23-Aug): +$0.92 or +1.32% to $70.78

      • €-$ +0.0048 or +0.44% to 1.0915

      • £-$ +0.0098 or +0.78% to 1.2709

      • €-£ (0.0029) to 0.8589

      • S&P 500 +0.98%

      • Performance year-to-date:

        • FTSE 100: +1.07%

        • DAX: +15.98%

        • CAC: +14.31%

        • MIB: +19.23%

        • Stoxx 600: +8.72%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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