Jul 02 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for a positive start to Monday trade. Nikkei, Hang Seng and ASX futures all pointing to gains on the open. S&P 500 futures flat after US equities capped off a positive week. Australian yields down 1-2 bp as curve continues to flatten. FX markets steady after dollar pulled back on major crosses. Crude backing off recent highs while metals little changed.
Path of least resistance remains higher as disinflation traction and soft landing hopes overshadow concerns about a longer tightening cycle. Treasury yields back to March highs as deeply inverted curve continues to give off recession signals. Some thought equity markets have run too high with strategists pointing to risk of policy-induced hard landing, corporate profit warnings and a worsening global macro backdrop.
High local government debt, softening external demand, record high youth unemployment rate, ongoing consumer caution, property market malaise, and lack of stimulus remain ongoing drags on China's economy. Chinese stocks have erased early-year gains, driven in part by deteriorating investor sentiment after markets saw quarterly outflow over Q2. Near-term attention is on July Politburo meeting and whether policymakers meet calls for meaningful policy support.
In other China developments, FX regulatory head Pan Gongsheng reportedly chosen as next CCP chief and governor of PBOC. Pan's appointment and insider status widely seen as a desire for policy continuity. China home prices contracted again in June, falling at fastest yearly pace since Aug-2015. PBOC reportedly queried foreign banks about their dollar deposits as offshore yuan trades near lowest since early Nov-2022.
Pre-open Company News:
293.HK -- Cathay Pacific Airways upgraded to buy from outperform at Daiwa
068270.KS -- Celltrion submits application to FDA for product approval of CT-P43 (Stelara biosimilar)
6326.JP -- Kubota downgraded to outperform from buy at CLSA
6702.JP -- Fujitsu downgraded to outperform from buy at CLSA
3883.HK -- China Aoyuan Group reports FY22 net income attributable (CNY7.84B) vs year-ago (CNY33.07B)
Jefferies upgrades 688012.CH, ACMR
3998.HK -- Bosideng International Holdings upgraded to outperform from neutral at ICBC International
532424.IN -- Godrej Consumer Products initiated buy at Emkay Research
5NG.SP -- OUE Healthcare launches conditional exit offer for the proposed voluntary delisting of Healthway Medical at SG$0.048/sh in cash
9922.HK -- Jiumaojiu International Holdings initiated buy at UBS (30-Jun, timing uncertain)
1119.HK -- iDreamSky Technology Holdings initiated buy at Guotai Junan
3808.HK -- Sinotruk Hong Kong guides H1 profit attributable increase of +80-100% vs year-ago CNY1.28B
3883.HK -- China Aoyuan Group reports 1H22 net income attributable (CNY2.92B) vs year-ago CNY2.09B
500877.IN -- Apollo Tyres downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
SCB.TB -- SCB X Public Co. upgraded to buy from hold at Thanachart Securities
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
09:45 CST: Markit/Caixin PMI Manufacturing SA; consensus 50
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index NSA; consensus
08:50 JST: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index NSA; consensus
09:30 JST: Markit/JMMA PMI Manufacturing SA (Final); consensus 49.8
Australia:
Economic:
11:30 AEST: Housing Finance SA M/M; consensus
11:30 AEST: Building Approvals SA M/M; consensus
Indonesia:
Economic:
11:00 SAST: CPI NSA Y/Y; consensus +3.7%
Market Data:
Gold (Aug 23): ($3.20) or (0.17%) to $1926.20
WTI Crude (Aug 23): ($0.36) or (0.51%) to $70.28
$-¥: +0.03 or +0.02% to 144.3470
$-KRW: (1.00) or (0.08%) to 1315.3000
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.09%) to 0.6657
$-INR: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 82.0960
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.03%) to 7.2513
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