Jul 05 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed lower. Denmark +0.3% bucks the lower trend and leads outperformers with Portugal and Switzerland both (0.2%), whilst Austria (1.7%), Netherlands and Spain both (1.2%) lead underperformers.
Nothing new on central bank policy in Europe. FT reported that BoE is considering forcing foreign bank to replace branches with subsidiaries, which would enable local regulators to seize control of failing banks.
In geopolitics, Hungary's foreign minister Szijjártó yesterday said the country will ratify Sweden's NATO application when Turkey does. Tomorrow, NATO's Stoltenberg is due to host a meeting of senior officials from Turkey, Sweden and Finland, to try to overcome Turkish objections to Sweden joining NATO. Hungary and Turkey are the last two out of 31 member countries in NATO yet to have approved Sweden's application.
On the macro-calendar, attention on slew of Services PMIs: Italy and Spain miss; France, Germany and UK final readings in line with prelim. numbers whilst EZ below prelim. Also, Eurozone PPI decelerates by more than expected (1.5%) y/y vs consensus (1.3%) and compared to prior month increase +0.9% revised from +1.0%. Elsewhere, French industrial production surprised on the upside.
Report by UK's National Audit Office warned taxpayers at risk of spending billions to service debt on BoE's QE program due to higher borrowing costs. Data from SMMT showed big jump in June car sales.
On the reporting front: VOLCAR.BSS (Volvo Car) reports Jun car sales +33% y/y to 66,379 units. TPT.LN (Topps Tiles) trading update: Q3 total sales +4.4% y/y; confident H2 adjusted pre-tax profit will be materially higher than H1. SHI.LN (SIG H1) trading update: revenue £1.42B, flat like-for-like y/y. KLR.LN (Keller Group) trading update; notes record start to the year; full year operating profit to be materially ahead of previous expectation. (CE2.GR) Cropenergies reports Q1 EBITDA €25.1M vs year-ago €97.8M; reaffirms FY guidance. In M&A news: Bloomberg, citing sources reports Adnoc will continue the pursuit of Covestro (COV1.GR), adding it will decide in coming weeks whether to improve bid.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: Jun 03-07 attached), AGRANA Beteiligungs (AGR.AV), Gerresheimer (GXI.GR), Suedzucker (SZU.GR), SUSE (SUSE.GR), Atrium Ljungberg (ATRLJ.B.SS), Bang & Olufsen (BO.DC), Chr. Hansen Holding (CHR.DC), Industrivarden (INDU.A.SS), Currys (CURY.LN), Jet2 (JET2.LN), Naked Wines (WINE.LN), PayPoint (PAY.LN), Equals Group (EQLS.LN), Ferrexpo (FXPO.LN), LDC (LOUP.FP), Persimmon (PSN.LN), Robert Walters (RWA.LN), Victrex (VCT.LN), Workspace Group (WKP.LN) and Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include,Germany May factory orders, Jun construction PMI, Austria Jun PPI, UK Jun construction PMI, Eurozone May retail sales.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Health Care +0.40%, Autos & Parts +0.26%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.08%), Real Estate (0.13%), Retail (0.30%), Telecom (0.46%), Banks (0.48%), Media (0.51%),
Underperformers:
Utilities (1.83%), Insurance (1.80%), Energy(1.61%), Technology (1.47%), Financial Svcs (1.43%), Chemicals (1.40%), Consumer Products and Services (1.24%), Basic Resources (1.14%), Construct & Mtls (1.04%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.86%), Travel & Leisure (0.80%),
Macro/Peripheral markets
Russia/Ukraine
Putin says Russian economy faring better than expected - Reuters
EU
Britain and EU agree draft Horizon deal - Politico
UK
Home Building Remains the UK's Weakest Link - Bloomberg
UK Paid to Boost Coal Provision While Ordering Wind Output Cut - Bloomberg
UK sells £4bn of debt at highest two-year borrowing cost this century - FT
Inflation crisis risks driving interest rates up to 7pc, warns JP Morgan - The Telegraph
France
France riots subside as Darmanin faces Senate questions - Reuters
Germany
Italy:
Greece
FinMin, top banker optimistic on economy's prospects - ekathimerini
Turkey
Turkish Government Plans Tax Increases on Banks, Firms - Bloomberg
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+26.6% BOI.FP (Boiron €50.00, +10.50) -- family shareholders to launch €50/share tender offer for remaining shares
+15.3% KTCG.AV (Kapsch TrafficCom €13.20, +1.75) -- autoTicket GmbH expects €243M from arbitration proceedings against Federal Republic of Germany based on settlement; company changes outlook for financial year 2023/24
+11.6% KLR.LN (Keller Group £7.86, +0.82) -- trading update
+10.4% SRS.IM (Saras €1.27, +0.12) -- Urion Holdings (Malta) Limited ups stake in company to 13.52% after purchase of ~10M shares
+9.8% ZIN.LN (Zinc Media Group £0.95, +0.09) -- trading update
+5.9% GLJ.GR (GRENKE €28.40, +1.60) -- Q2 sales
+4.1% RROS.SS (Rottneros SEK12.12, +0.48) -- nters into long-term PPA including Guarantees of Origin (GoOs) with Energie Baden-Württemberg
+3.7% XAR.LN (Xaar £1.82, +0.06) -- signs an exclusive commercial partnership with Quantica GmbH
+3.1% EQLS.LN (Equals Group £0.99, +0.03) -- H1 trading update
+3.0% CON.GR (Continental €68.68, +2.00) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+2.7% VPK.NA (Royal Vopak €33.81, +0.88) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+2.2% GET.FP (Getlink €15.85, +0.35) -- initiated overweight at JPMorgan
+2.2% EVT.GR (Evotec €20.69, +0.45) -- $74M contract from US Department of Defense
+2.2% PSON.LN (Pearson £8.35, +0.18) -- UBS upgrade
+2.0% BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli €79.90, +1.55) -- BofA upgrade
Trading Lower:
-32.8% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €3.08, -1.50) -- presentation of two equity proposals
-14.2% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF5.68, -0.94) -- reports of delayed introduction of micro-LED technology to the Apple Watch cited
-13.0% SHI.LN (SIG £0.30, -0.05) -- H1 trading update
-11.3% QUIZ.LN (QUIZ Ltd. £0.09, -0.01) -- FY earnings
-6.6% CE2.GR (Cropenergies €9.58, -0.68) -- Q1 earnings
-6.0% REDD.LN (Redde Northgate £3.56, -0.23) -- FY earnings
-5.6% SZG.GR (Salzgitter €31.78, -1.90) -- target price cut at Oddo
-4.3% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £6.15, -0.28) -- BofA downgrade
-4.1% FSKRS.FH (Fiskars €15.30, -0.66) -- lowers its guidance for 2023
-3.5% ADYEN.NA (Adyen €1,528.80, -55.00) -- UBS downgrade
-3.3% SIFG.NA (Sif Holding €12.40, -0.42) -- right offering results
-3.1% VLA.FP (Valneva €6.47, -0.21) -- UBS downgrade
-2.9% XXL.NO (XXL ASA NOK1.78, -0.05) -- target price cut at Pareto
-2.8% TEG.GR (TAG Immobilien €9.15, -0.27) -- Stifel downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACH: AGRANA Beteiligungs (AGR.AV), Gerresheimer (GXI.GR), Suedzucker (SZU.GR), SUSE (SUSE.GR)
Nordics: Atrium Ljungberg (ATRLJ.B.SS), Bang & Olufsen (BO.DC), Chr. Hansen Holding (CHR.DC), Industrivarden (INDU.A.SS),
UK: Currys (CURY.LN), Jet2 (JET2.LN), Naked Wines (WINE.LN), PayPoint (PAY.LN)
Trading Update: Equals Group (EQLS.LN), Ferrexpo (FXPO.LN), LDC (LOUP.FP), Persimmon (PSN.LN), Robert Walters (RWA.LN), Victrex (VCT.LN), Workspace Group (WKP.LN)
Traffic: Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO)
Data:
Economics:
Jun services PMI
Ireland 56.8 vs consensus 55.6, prior 57.0
Russia 55.8 vs consensus 54.0, prior 54.4
Sweden 46.1 vs consensus 47.1, prior 50.2
Spain 53.4 vs consensus 55.5, prior 56.7
Italy 52.2 vs consensus 53.0, prior 54.0
France 48.0 vs preliminary 48.0
Germany 54.1 vs preliminary 54.1
Eurozone 52.0 vs preliminary 52.4
UK 53.7 vs preliminary 53.7
France May Industrial Production +1.2% m/m vs consensus (0.2%) and prior +0.8%
Spain May Industrial Production (0.1%) y/y vs consensus (0.5%) and prior revised (1.0%) from (0.9%)
Eurozone May PPI (1.5%) y/y vs consensus (1.3%) and prior revised +0.9% from +1.0%; (1.9%) m/m vs consensus (1.8%) and prior (3.2%)
Ireland Jun Unemployment Rate 3.8% vs consensus 3.8% and prior 3.8%
Market
WTI Crude (Aug 23): +$2.09 or +2.99% to $71.88
€-$ (0.0007) or (0.06%) to 1.0876
£-$ +0.0003 or +0.02% to 1.2719
€-£ (0.0008) to 0.8552
S&P 500 (0.06%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (0.12%)
DAX: +14.39%
CAC: +12.84%
MIB: +19.05%
Stoxx 600: +7.74%
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