Jul 10 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open mixed after last week's losses that saw the Stoxx Europe 600 close down over (3%). Focus to remain on central bank rate expectations after a big backup in yields last week. Comments from BoE Governor Bailey reiterated commitment to bring inflation back to target, though suggested it had leeway to lengthen horizon from usual two years to three years if necessary. Note there is another speech from Bailey this evening at 20:00BST at The Financial and Professional Services Dinner. France's Villeroy said ECB close to end of tightening cycle but warned rates to stay high to bring down inflation. Riksbank minutes due today. Also of note, Bank Of Italy releases survey on inflation and growth expectations
Macro data releases out today include Norway Jun CPI/PPI, Eurozone Jul Sentix investor confidence, Greece May industrial production, Netherlands May manufacturing production, Denmark Jun CPI, May trade balance, Austria May industrial production
Today's agenda also sees EU's General Affairs Council with focus on the priorities of the Spanish presidency, the mid-term revision of the EU's long-term budget, the Commission's annual rule of law report. Bundesbank's Nagel is panellist at 18:00CET title How will financing work in the future? at joint event with German Chancellery.
In the Netherlands, Prime Minister Mark Rutte faces a no confidence vote in parliament on Monday after dispute over immigration triggered coalition collapse Friday.
On the corporate front, focus on Novartis (NOVN.SW) as it says will appeal to U.S. Court of Appeals to uphold validity of Entresto combination patent; maintains 2023 guidance and mid-term outlook. Recall Novartis shares fell over 3% on Friday afternoon into the close as reports of the patent ruling hit the tape. Bayer (BAYN.GR) is preparing to spin off CropScience, reports Platow Borse. Torqx Capital Partners intends to acquire Beter Bed Holding (BBED.NA) for of €6.10/share in cash cum dividend. The Telegraph reports that BT (BT.A.LN) is on high alert for a potential takeover by major shareholder Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR)
Macro/politics
Central banks
Netherlands
Dutch PM Rutte faces no confidence vote after collapse of government - Reuters
UK
Hunt to set out City reforms to drive UK growth and investment - FT
UK jobs market cools again, pay growth weakest since April 2021: REC - Reuters
UK firms most upbeat in 10 months despite economic headwinds, survey shows - Reuters
UK to Sign Pacific Trade Deal, Shifting Focus to China - Bloomberg
Joe Biden to meet Rishi Sunak at No 10 before Nato summit - Guardian
Top company news
Earnings/updates
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- will appeal to U.S. Court of Appeals to uphold validity of Entresto combination patent; maintains 2023 guidance and mid-term outlook
TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co.) -- reports prelim Q2 IFRS revenues $206M vs year-ago $230M
AED.BB (Aedifica) -- completed 9 development projects from it's investment program in Q2
DIC.GR (Dic Asset) -- concludes new agreement to extend bridge financing; adjusts forecast for 2023
KID.NO (Kid ASA) -- reports preliminary Q2 revenue NOK724.2M vs prior guidance NOK742.8M
OMVB.AV (OMV) -- reports Q2 total hydrocarbon production of 353 kboe/d vs year-ago 345 kboe/d
Also reporting today
Earnings: Wihlborgs Fastigheter (WIHL.SS)
Trading Update: Horizonte Minerals (HZM.LN)
Sales: Daimler Truck (DTG.GR) Q2
CMD/events: AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) Deutsche Bank, R&D Series
M&A
BBED.NA (Beter Bed Holding) -- Torqx Capital Partners intends to acquire Beter Bed Holding for of €6.10/share in cash cum dividend
BALL (Ball Corp) -- Defense industry and private equity bidders said to express interest in Ball Corp's aerospace business -- Reuters
KER.FP (Kering) -- acquired Creed for €3.5B - FT
BT.A.LN (BT Group) -- BT seeking successor for CEO Philip Jansen, who will leave in 2024; amid speculation about someone seeking to buy BT, the company has hired defence advisers - Sky News
BT.A.LN (BT Group) -- BT prepares for potential takeover by major shareholder Deutsche Telekom - Telegraph
CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) -- Groupe Casino announces 3F Holding has extended validity of offer, filed on 4-Jul 2023, to 10-Jul-23
US.IM (UnipolSai Assicurazioni) -- Unicredit buys UnipolSai Assicurazioni out of Incontra; terms undisclosed
Healthcare
GSK.LN (GSK Plc) -- GSK discussing succession plan for CEO Emma Walmsley - Sunday Times
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- Bayer preparing to spin off CropScience - Platow Borse (7-Jul, seemingly post-close)
NERV (Minerva Neurosciences) -- holder, Boehringer AG, discloses 20.8% stake - 13D
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- announces its insomnia medication, QUVIVIQ (daridorexant), is now covered by CVS
ALBPS.FP (Biophytis) -- files to initiate SARA-31 phase 3 study of BIO101 in US
SFL.IM (Safilo Group) -- announces resignation of CFO Gerd Graehsler, effective 28-Aug
Other
NEL.NO (NEL ASA) -- receives $5.6M of additional funding from US Department of Defense, Engineer Research and Development Center- Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (ERDC-CERL)
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $125.6M, (47.3%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Three years required for recovery of Ocado Retail - London Times
Key rating changes
Upgrades
CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
ENQ.LN (EnQuest) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
ETE.GA (National Bank of Greece) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
COLO.B.DC (Coloplast) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
ACX.SM (Acerinox) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
BOL.SS (Boliden) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
Downgrades
RI.FP (Pernod Ricard) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
G24.GR (Scout24) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
EUROB.GA (Eurobank Ergasias) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
SCHP.SW (Schindler) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
MMGR.B.SS (Momentum Group) -- to hold from buy at Danske Bank
Initiations
DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich) -- buy at Goldman Sachs
HTRO.SS (Hexatronic Group) -- buy at ABG Sundal Collier
Data
Nikkei (0.62%) to 32188.93
Hang Seng +0.56% to 18468.21
Shanghai Composite +0.08% to 3199.29
S&P futures (18.0) vs prior close of 4434.0
€-$ (0.0013) or (0.12%) to 1.0955
$-¥ +0.54 or +0.38% to 142.72
€-¥ +0.41 or +0.26% to 156.30
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