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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +1.83% to 7416.11, DAX +1.47% to 16023.00, CAC40 +1.57% to 7333.01, STOXX 600 +1.51% to 458.54

Jul 12 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets finished broadly higher. Basic Resources, Technology, Retail and Real Estate the best performing sectors, while Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores and Health Care the worst performing sectors. Treasuries stronger with curve flattening; 2Y yield back near 4.75% after topping 5% last Thursday. Dollar index down 1.1% with yen strength once again the story in FX on recent BoJ policy tweak speculation. Gold up 1.2%. Bitcoin futures up 0.5%. WTI crude up 0.9%. US equities higher. Risk assets extending gains after US June CPI. Headline CPI came in softer than expected with 0.2% m/m increase, pushing y/y rate down 3% from 4% in May.

    • In the spotlight, BoE Financial Stability Report highlights challenging risk environment but banks resilient. BoE Governor Bailey says yesterday's labor market data mixed; notes signs of easing in labor market tightness but wage growth too high. UK Chancellor Hunt is pressuring ministers to find spending cuts to fund public sector pay rise of 6% this year. Report by Grant Thornton and Retail Economics said UK's cost-of-living squeeze to last another 10 months.

    • Macro releases were light today. Of note, out of Spain, Jun CPI came in at+1.9% y/y and in line with preliminary +1.9% and +0.6% m/m vs preliminary +0.6%. Portugal Jun CPI was also in line at +3.4% y/y vs prelim +3.4%; +0.3% m/m vs prelim +0.2%. Tomorrow France reports Jun final CPI and UK May industrial/manufacturing production, trade balance, construction output, Jun house price balance - RICS are due as well as Eurozone May industrial production. Reuters reported that Eurozone finance ministers will agree on Thursday to withdraw energy support measures and cut budget deficits to help the ECB curb inflation. A draft statement, seen by Reuters, highlighted gradual, determined and realistic fiscal consolidation is warranted to rebuild fiscal buffers. Ministers to agree that absent renewed energy price shocks, governments to withdraw fiscal stimulus as soon as possible in 2023 and 2024.

    • On the earnings front, out of DACHs, ABOUT YOU Holding (YOU.GR) reported Q1 and confirmed FY guidance whilst u-blox Holding (UBXN.SW) is out with preliminary Q2 revenue CHF166M vs FactSet CHF164.0M. Telekom Austria (TKA.AV) reported Q2 EBITDA €486M, +6% vs year-ago €457M. In the afternoon, Continental (CON.GR) reported preliminary Q2 revenue ~ €10.40B vs FactSet €10.39B and expected adjusted EBIT margin at around 4.8% (consensus 5.8%) due to lower-than-expected adjusted EBIT margin in the Automotive group sector (expected to be ~ (0.6%) vs consensus 1.0%). Cropenergies (CE2.GR) said it expects significant reduction in results in Q2 and confirms FY outlook. In the UK, JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN), Grafton Group (GFTU.LN) and Tullow Oil (TLW.LN) released trading updates. Out of the Nordics, DNB Bank (DNB.NO) and JM (JM.SS) posted Q2 report whilst Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG.NO) released Q2 numbers with earnings beat on top and bottom line.

    • In M&A, Thales (HO.FP) enters into exclusive negotiation to acquire Cobham Aerospace Communications for ~$1.1B (EV, debt free/cash free). AXA (CS.FP) reportedly weighing options for its XL Re unit whilst Close Brothers Group (CBG.LN) is reviewing options for its wealth-management business, which could be worth as much as £300M. Shares of Fastighets Balder (BALD.B.SS) traded higher in the afternoon after Balder CEO tells Real Estate Days in Båstad that he sees opportunities to divide the business into several different parts.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Basic Resources +3.76%, Real Estate +3.13%, Technology +2.64%, Retail +2.61%, Consumer Products and Services +1.97%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.95%, Chemicals +1.88%, Financial Svcs +1.83%, Construct & Mtls +1.71%

      • Underperformers: Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.41%, Health Care +0.59%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.61%, Travel & Leisure +0.84%, Utilities +1.06%, Autos & Parts +1.10%, Oil & Gas+1.28%, Telecom +1.34%, Insurance +1.38%, Media +1.40%

    • Macro:

      • ECB's Lane expects policy impact on banking channel to strengthen

      • Eurozone finance ministers will agree on Thursday to withdraw energy support measures and cut budget deficits to help the ECB curb inflation (Reuters)

      • ECB's Vujcic: Euro zone inflation risk elevated but getting more balanced (Reuters)

      • BoE

        • Financial Stability Report said UK banks remain strong enough to support households and firms, even if economic conditions are worse than it expects. It maintained the countercyclical capital buffer at 2% to make sure banks can withstand potential losses without restricting lender to wider economy.

        • Governor Bailey Bailey appeared to signal more rate hikes at Financial Stability press conference; while the BoE acknowledged impact on mortgage holders from higher rates, Bailey highlighted it is an intended feature of policy to reduce spending to bring down inflation (Bloomberg)

      • UK's inflation crisis expected to last another 10 months (Bloomberg)

      • UK Chancellor Hunt has told ministers there will be no extra money to fund public sector pay rises of ~6%, meaning departments face the choice of spending cuts or raising salaries (Guardian)

      • Putin trip to China is 'on the agenda' according to Kremlin (Reuters)

    • Peripheral markets:

      • Italy:

        • Italy wants more EU funds but inefficiencies undermine process (Reuters)

      • Greece:

        • Greece and Turkey agreed on Wednesday to resume talks and confidence-building measures (Reuters)

      • Spain

        • Latest two opinion polls show PP lead over PSOE back at levels not seen since mid-Jun - okdiario; larazon.es

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers:

        • +13.2% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €3.40, +0.39) -- 3F Holding plans to submit revised offer for Casino - Les Echos, citing Matthieu Pigasse; Investment group's revised offers for Casino due to be submitted on Friday (14-Jul) evening - Challenges

          • +7.1% RAL.FP (Rallye €0.97, +0.06)

        • +13.0% RBGP.LN (RBG Holdings £0.31, +0.04) -- completes disposal of LionFish Litigation Finance

        • +10.8% VMUK.LN (Virgin Money UK £1.62, +0.16) -- confirms resumption of buyback programme after BoE 2022 ACS Stress Test Results

        • +9.8% JDW.LN (JD Wetherspoon £7.28, +0.65) -- 10-week trading update

        • +8.6% GARO.SS (GARO SEK60.05, +4.75) -- framework agreement with E.ON Drive Infrastructure

        • +7.4% SHOE.LN (Shoe Zone £2.53, +0.18) -- trading update

        • +5.7% UBXN.SW (u-blox Holding CHF101.00, +5.40) -- prelim Q2 revenue

        • +5.5% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £9.17, +0.48) -- reviewing options for its wealth-management business - Bloomberg

        • +4.7% GFTU.LN (Grafton Group £7.99, +0.36) -- H1 trading update

        • +4.5% HEBA.B.SS (HEBA Fastighets SEK27.65, +1.20) -- H1 earnings

        • +4.2% BALD.B.SS (Fastighets Balder SEK44.85, +1.82) -- CEO tells Real Estate Days in Båstad that he sees opportunities to divide the business into several different parts

        • +3.3% HSW.LN (Hostelworld Group £1.25, +0.04) -- H1 trading update

        • +3.3% RAND.NA (Randstad €51.64, +1.67) -- acquisition of Grupo CTC for €80.5M E.V.

        • +3.3% BARC.LN (Barclays £1.55, +0.05) -- CEO considering increasing investment in several smaller units as part of strategic review - Reuters; above all hurdle rates in 2022/23 Bank of England stress test

        • +3.2% CS.FP (AXA €26.65, +0.82) -- AXA reportedly weighing options for its XL Re unit -- Reuters

        • +3.2% HO.FP (Thales €137.50, +4.30) -- exclusive negotiation to acquire Cobham Aerospace Communications for ~$1.1B

        • +3.2% SDRL.NO (Seadrill NOK458.00, +14.00) -- shareholder Elliott Management files amended 13D

        • +3.1% CE2.GR (Cropenergies €9.83, +0.30) -- expects significant reduction in results in Q2: confirms FY outlook

        • +3.0% LGRS.LN (Loungers £1.90, +0.05) -- FY earnings

        • +2.9% FRE.GR (Fresenius €25.76, +0.72) -- Fresenius Kabi announces biosimilar candidate FKS518 successfully met its primary and secondary objectives in a recently conducted clinical trial

        • +2.8% LLOY.LN (Lloyds Banking Group £0.45, +0.01) -- BOE results of the 2022/23 annual cyclical scenario (ACS) stress test

      • Notable Decliners:

        • -30.4% SEDANA.SS (Sedana Medical SEK17.80, -7.80) -- filing date for NDA of INSPIRE-ICU trials moved to Q1 2025 and approval to late 2025 or early 2026

        • -21.8% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK1.44, -0.40) -- operations restructuring plan

        • -12.5% BULTEN.SS (Bulten SEK84.10, -12.00) -- Q2 earnings

        • -7.4% ELAN.B.SS (Elanders SEK107.20, -8.60) -- Q2 earnings

        • -3.9% AF.FP (Air France-KLM €1.63, -0.07) -- 1 for 10 reverse share split; Deutsche Bank downgrade

        • -3.8% RNO.LN (Renold £0.29, -0.01) -- FY earnings

        • -2.4% TLW.LN (Tullow Oil £0.29, -0.01) -- H1 trading update

        • -2.1% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK461.20, -9.80) -- Q2 earnings

        • -1.8% DNB.NO (DNB Bank NOK196.70, -3.70) -- Q2 earnings

        • -1.5% AENA.SM (Aena S.M.E. €145.55, -2.15) -- Jun traffic

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • DACH: Ahlers (AAH.GR), Heidelberg Pharma (HPHA.GR)

        • Nordics: TF Bank (TFBANK.SS),OEM International (OEM.B.SS), Plejd (PLEJD.SS), Xvivo Perfusion (XVIVI.SS), ITAB Shop Concept (ITAB.SS), Q-linea (QLINEA.SS), Alligator Bioscience (ATROX.SS), Note (NOTE.SS), ProfilGruppen (PROF.B.SS), BONESUPPORT HOLDING (BONEX.SS), BE Group (BEGR.SS), Aker BP (AKRBP.NO), OKEA (OKEA.NO), Aker Solutions (AKSO.NO), Akastor (AKAST.NO), Aker Horizons (AKH.NO), Europris (EPR.NO), Elliptic Laboratories (ELABS.NO), Kitron (KIT.NO), Bonheur (BONHR.NO), Otovo (OTOVO.SS), Bufab (BUFAB.SS), Collector Bank (COLL.SS)

        • UK: Ilika (IKA.LN), TClarke (CTO.LN), Watches of Switzerland (WOSG.LN)

      • Trading Update: Barratt Developments (BDEV.LN), Brooks MacDonald Group (BRK.LN), Hays (HAS.LN), John Wood Group (WG.LN), Experian (EXPN.LN), DCC (DCC.LN), Trustpilot Group (TRST.LN), The Gym Group (GYM.LN), Pepco Group (PCO.PW), Partners Group (PGHN.SW)

      • Revenue/sales: Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW), Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IT), VINCI (DG.FP), Lepermislibre (ALLPL.FP)

      • Traffic: Fraport (FRA.GR), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Spain Jun CPI +1.9% y/y vs prelim +1.9%; +0.6% m/m vs prelim +0.6%

        • EU Harmonised: +1.6% y/y vs prelim +1.6%; +0.6% m/m vs prelim +0.6%

      • Portugal Jun CPI +3.4% y/y vs prelim +3.4%; +0.3% m/m vs prelim +0.2%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Aug 23): +$0.73 or +0.98% to $75.56

      • €-$ +0.0114 or +1.04% to 1.1121

      • £-$ +0.0054 or +0.42% to 1.2986

      • €-£ +0.0054 to 0.8566

      • S&P 500 +0.64%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: (0.48%)

        • DAX: +15.08%

        • CAC: +13.27%

        • MIB: +20.44%

        • Stoxx 600: +7.92%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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