Jul 16 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for weaker start to Monday trade. Hang Seng futures pointing to declines following prior week's tech-led rally (trading to be delayed due to typhoon). ASX futures unchanged. Nikkei closed for Marine Day holiday. S&P 500 futures below recent highs following strong US market performance last week. Bonds mixed with Aussie curve bear flattening and New Zealand yields lower. Crude pulling back from late April highs. Metals also seeing minor declines.
Disinflation traction and soft landing hopes have underpinned risk appetite lately. While Fed still expected to hike by 25 bp this month, odds of another rate increase by end-2023 have diminished. At the same time, there remain counterpoints to the disinflation narrative, namely resilient economies and still-tight labor markets, higher-for-longer Fed messaging and other central banks still firmly in tightening mode.
Big day of China data with base-year effects likely responsible for a y/y pickup in Q2 GDP growth. However, activity figures expected to confirm economic weakness extended into June with industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment growth all forecast to have slowed sharply. Separately, PBOC expected to keep MLF rate unchanged in today's operation while adding liquidity as CNY100B of medium-term loans matures. Weekend data showed no growth in new home prices for first time in 2023.
US-China tensions remain elevated despite efforts to improve senior-level communication. US Senate Leader Schumer said will push for fresh sanctions on China over US fentanyl scourge. Bloomberg reported ASML to face tougher curbs on repairing restricted equipment in China, in addition to existing export controls. Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated US desire to deescalate tensions but downplayed expectations of removing Trump-era tariffs.
Pre-open Company News:
JPMorgan downgrades 5183.MK, PTTGC.TB
6606.HK -- New Horizon Health announces intention to repurchase up to 10% of issued shares
2172.HK -- MicroPort NeuroTech guides H1 net profit CNY45-60M, revenue CNY290-310M
300769.CH -- Shenzhen Dynanonic Co. guides H1 net income attributable (CNY1.04B)-(CNY1.17B) vs year-ago CNY1.28B
VVY.NA -- Vivoryon Therapeutics shares clinical development update highlighting progress of N3pE-amyloid-targeting small molecule varoglutamstat in Alzheimer's disease
Jefferies resumes 500180.IN, HDB
285.HK -- BYD Electronic (International) upgraded to buy from outperform at CLSA
600588.CH -- Yonyou Network Technology downgraded to outperform from buy at CLSA
780.HK -- Tongcheng-Elong Holdings initiated buy at BofA
939.HK -- China Construction Bank announces resignation of Cheng Yuanguo as Chief Risk Officer
DOHOME.TB -- DoHome Public upgraded to hold from sell at Tisco Securities (14-Jul, timing uncertain)
Goldman Sachs adds 9888.HK, BIDU to Conviction Buy List
D05.SP -- DBS Group Holdings upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie
293.HK -- Cathay Pacific Airways upgraded to buy from hold at HSBC
^TTNASIA -- China MLF rate seen unchanged as stimulus expectations lean toward fiscal policy:
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
10:00 CST: Industrial Output NSA Y/Y; consensus +2%
10:00 CST: GDP NSA Y/Y; consensus +7.3%
10:00 CST: Retail Sales NSA Y/Y; consensus +3.2%
Hong Kong:
Earnings:
361 Degrees International (1361.HK), China Evergrande Group (3333.HK)
New Zealand:
Earnings:
Manawa Energy (MNW.NZ)
India:
Earnings:
HDFC Bank (500180.IN)
Market Data:
Gold (Aug 23): ($8.10) or (0.41%) to $1956.30
WTI Crude (Aug 23): ($0.57) or (0.76%) to $74.85
$-¥: (0.07) or (0.05%) to 138.6900
$-KRW: (0.96) or (0.08%) to 1268.3300
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.14%) to 0.6836
$-INR: (0.03) or (0.04%) to 82.1052
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1403
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