Jul 17 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mostly lower Monday in a cautious day's trading. Losses in mainland China and South Korea, modest gains for Taipei, India and most of Southeast Asia; Australia and Singapore flat. Japan closed for a holiday, Hong Kong closed on a typhoon warning. US futures mixed, Europe paring opening losses. US dollar slightly lower, AUD, NZD and yuan weaker on China data, yen a tad stronger. US Treasuries mixed. Crude blends sharply after China data, precious and industrial metals also under pressure.
Asia markets rather subdued Monday with two major markets closed and to follow the flat handover from Wall Street Friday. With Hong Kong closed, mainland China markets dropped on the latest set of economic activity data: Q2 GDP growth slowed more than expected y/y but was higher on a seasonally adjusted q/q basis; June industrial production was better but retail sales grew just 3.1% versus Q1's 12.7% expansion. Real estate investment and property sales also contracted.
PBOC kept MLF rate unchanged but lowered its liquidity injection to its lowest since Nov-22 after offering CNY103B ($14.4B) versus CNY100B maturing. Bank expected to ease policy sooner rather than later with Q2/June data showing another disappointment although recent talk has downplayed Politburo later this month as a date for the announcement. Hopes for a broad policy response also questioned given debt constraints. Regional export data highlighted extent of slowdown: Indonesia's exports fell more than 20% and by more than expected, Singapore's fell most in five months but contraction was at least better than forecast.
Daewoo Engineering & Construction (047040.KS) signed a MoU with Poland's third largest construction group. Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS) is set to begin mass production of EV power inductors. Vedanta (500295.IN) said it is 'advanced talks' over regaining control of a Zambian copper mine four years after it was seized by the government.
Digest:
Mixed China data seen unconvincing, reinforces calls for more stimulus:
Q2 GDP expanded 6.3% y/y, below consensus 7.3% and follows 4.5% in the previous quarter. However, sequential growth came in at 0.8% q/q, firmer than consensus 0.5%, following 2.2% in Q1. Economists highlighted attention on sequential deceleration for a cleaner read on underlying growth momentum as year-ago changes were supported by favorable base effects reflecting last year's Covid lockdowns. Other headline metrics were similarly mixed. Industrial production rose 4.4% y/y in June beating consensus 2.7% and follows 3.5% in prior month. Solar cells, integrated circuits were bright spots, while autos, PCs and smartphones declined. Capacity utilization was 74.5% in Q2, down 0.6 ppt from a year earlier. Retail sales grew 3.1% y/y in June slightly below consensus 3.3% and sharply softer than 12.7% in May, marking the lowest growth YTD. Deceleration was broadly based though most categories remained positive -- double digit gains in catering remained the standout reflecting post-Covid recovery dynamics. Fixed asset investment continued to slow, up 3.8% y/y YTD vs consensus 3.4% and prior 4.0%. Aligns with ongoing softening in real estate as aggregate sales deteriorated notably. Infrastructure expanded 7.2%. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2% as expected.
Hong Kong scraps Monday trading on typhoon warning as extreme weather pounds Asia:
Hong Kong Exchange scrapped trading Monday in entirety after city authorities issued typhoon warning early morning. Government issued third highest storm warning with winds reaching 260km/h (162m/h), will remain in force until at least 4pm. China Connect northbound also affected (SCMP). Typhoon Talim currently several hundred kilometers south of Hong Kong, forecast to move toward Hainan province over next 48 hours. Parts of northern Vietnam, Thailand also placed on flood alert (BangkokPost). Comes just as heavy rains pound northeast Japan and South Korea, led to evacuations and fatalities in Japan (Kyodo), South Korea where president Yoon ordered designation of disaster zones to deal with destruction and more than 40 deaths (Yonhap). Floods also still affecting northern India with many parts of capital Delhi remaining closed until at least Tuesday (Mint).
China MLF operation in line:
PBOC injected CNY103B in new MLF funding while keeping the rate unchanged at 2.65%, both matching expectations. Size matched the CNY100B in maturing loans. After last month's rate cuts, Reuters noted that stimulus hopes are shifting towards fiscal policy, as any further interest rate cuts could put the yuan currency under more pressure from a widening yield gap with the US. Recall latest PBOC rhetoric came from Deputy Governor Liu Guoqiang in Beijing Friday, reiterating central bank has ample policy tools and will step up counter-cyclical adjustments. Echoing those remarks, Zou Lan, head of the monetary policy department, told reporters Friday that monetary policy tools will be used comprehensively -- including RRR, MLF, and OMO -- amid slowing economic growth (Reuters). Added that appropriate credit growth will be maintained, and banks will be guided to expand lending to small and private firms.
China property investment falters further:
China property investment fell 7.9% y/y in Jan-Jun, versus Bloomberg forecast of 7.5% drop and follows 7.2% decline in Jan-May. Reuters calculations showed property investment fell 20.6% y/y in June, after a 21.5% drop in May; sales by floor area fell 28.1% y/y as largest monthly drop this year, extending 19.7% drop in May. Came after Saturday's NBS data showed new home prices were unchanged both on year and on month in June, weakest result in 2023(Reuters). Raft of weak data points to sector's deepening downturn after a brief Q1 rebound. Economists called for policymakers to consider measures that would encourage commercial and policy banks to offer new credit to developers as Politburo expected to meet later July. Goldman expects measures including lowering down payments ratio or relaxing purchasing curbs in top-tier cities. PBOC earlier said policies will be "tailored" to cities and implied policy support will focus on industry leaders only (Bloomberg).
Southeast Asia exports slow further from two key bases:
Indonesia and Singapore June trade data laid bare Southeast Asia's exposure to slowing global trade, with both showing significant y/y falls. Singapore's non-oil exports (NODX) fell 15.5% y/y, ninth consecutive contraction in NODX shipments, lower than May's 14.8% dip. On m/m basis, NODX grew 5.4% from May's 14.6% fall (BusinessTimes). Electronic exports fell 15.9% with chemicals and petrochemical products also down sharply. Shipments to all markets fell except to China, which rose 3.1%. Economists warned although China exports had improved, recent slowdown may mean recovery in trade may not be sustainable. Meanwhile, Indonesia exports fell 5.1% m/m, , 21% y/y, weighed by weaker commodity prices, lower shipments of oil and palm oil products. However, 19% drop in imports, m/m on lower oil & gas imports, led to 18% decline y/y. Trade surplus narrowed m/m but better than expected.
Notable Gainers:
+10.0% 603160.CH (Shenzhen Goodix Technology): guides H1 net income attributable (CNY137M) vs year-ago CNY21.1M
+9.8% 047040.KS (Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co.): signs MoU with with Polish companies to establish business cooperation in the region
+5.1% 009150.KS (Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co.): reportedly to mass-produce EV power inductors
Notable Decliners:
-7.9% 182400.KS (NKMAX Co Ltd (South korea)): subsidiary NKGen Biotech reportedly presents phase I data of SNK01 for Alzheimer's
-7.3% 002709.CH (Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology): guides H1 net income attributable CNY1.16-1.36B vs year-ago CNY2.91B
-5.2% 543228.IN (Route Mobile): Proximus to acquire a 57.6% controlling stake in Route Mobile for initial consideration INR59.22B (€643.0M) cash at INR1,626.40/share
-4.0% 603501.CH (Will Semiconductor Co Ltd Shanghai): guides H1 net income attributable CNY128.5-192.8M vs year-ago CNY2.27B
-3.8% 601088.CH (China Shenhua Energy): guides H1 net income attributable CNY35.9-37.9B vs year-ago CNY42.48B
Data:
Economic:
China
Q2 GDP +6.3% y/y vs consensus +7.3% and +4.5% in prior quarter
GDP +0.8% q/q vs consensus +0.5% and +2.2% in prior quarter
June
Industrial production +4.4% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and +3.5% in prior month
Retail sales +3.1% y/y vs consensus +3.3% and +12.7% in prior month
Fixed asset investment (YTD) +3.8% vs consensus +3.4% y/y vs +4.0% in prior month
Unemployment rate 5.2% vs consensus 5.2% and 5.2% in prior month
New house prices 0.0% m/m vs +0.1% in prior month
Singapore June
Non-oil domestic export y/y (15.5%) versus (14.8%) in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: Closed
Hang Seng: Closed
Shanghai Composite: (28.07) or (0.87%) to 3209.63
Shenzhen Composite: (10.40) or (0.51%) to 2047.70
ASX200: (4.60) or (0.06%) to 7298.50
KOSPI: (9.30) or (0.35%) to 2619.00
SENSEX: 256.90 or +0.39% to 66317.80
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.16) or (0.11%) to 138.6040
$-KRW: (3.40) or (0.27%) to 1265.8800
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.49%) to 0.6812
$-INR: (0.05) or (0.06%) to 82.0910
$-CNY: +0.03 or +0.45% to 7.1731
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