Jul 17 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly lower following last week's gains when the STOXX Europe 600 closed up +2.9%. Recall the biggest tailwind for stocks last week came from the softer-than-expected US CPI print. Disinflation traction and a dovish repricing in the Fed rate path saw a moderation in ECB and BoE rate hike expectations, though both Banks' tightening cycles are still likely to end after the Fed. Bloomberg cites a survey saying economists expects the ECB boost borrowing costs to a peak of 4% in September.
Asian equities mostly weaker Monday. Note Japan closed for a holiday, Hong Kong closed on a typhoon warning. Mainland China trading lower following GDP and economic activity data. China Q2 GDP growth slowed in-line with expectations (q/q) while annual growth undershot forecasts. Activity figures mixed with industrial production and fixed asset investment growth beating, but retail sales growth missing. Property data weak with new home prices stalling for first time in 2023, real estate investment contracting by more than expected, and property sales by floor area falling sharply.
In central banks today, 9th ECB conf on central, eastern and south-eastern European (CESEE) countries takes place; speakers include ECB's Lagarde 10:10CET, Lane 10:30, Bank of Croatia's Vuj�?ić panellist at 14:15. Bundesbank's monthly report published at 12:00CET. Bank of Portugal's Official Bulletin. Munich Economic Debates, speaker ifo's Fuest (18:00CET)
Today's agenda also sees EU summit with Latin American and Caribbean countries (through Tue) and informal meeting of EU agriculture and fisheries ministers (through Tue). UK parliament sees Illegal Migration as well as Strikes (Minimum Service Levels) Bills continuing its passage.
Macro data releases out today include Italy Jun final CPI, Ireland May trade balance
On the corporate front, luxury sector eyed after weaker than expected Q1 sales from Richemont (CFR.SW); in Nordic banking sector, Nordea Bank (NDA.SE.SS) reports Q2 EPS €0.37 vs consensus €0.35; updates FY outlook
Macro/politics
ECB to Bring Rates to 4% Peak in September, Economists Say - Bloomberg
UK Economy Is Likely to Fall Further Behind Euro Area Next Year - Bloomberg
UK Property Sellers Cut Asking Prices for First Time This Year - Bloomberg
Inheritance tax could be scrapped in Tory bid for votes - Times (14-Jul, 2100 UK time)
Fitch Revises Ireland's Outlook to Positive; Affirms at 'AA-' - link
French Government Lays Out €4 Billion Spending Cut to Close Gap - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
CFR.SW (Richemont) -- reports Q1 revenue €5.32B vs consensus €5.47B
IBE.SM (Iberdrola) -- reports provisional Q2 net electricity production 39,661 GWh, (2.7%) y/y
NDA.SE.SS (Nordea Bank) -- reports Q2 EPS €0.37 vs consensus €0.35; updates FY outlook
TOM2.NA (TomTom) -- reports Q2 net income (€4.5M) vs consensus (€5.0M); increases 2023 outlook
DRW3.GR (Drägerwerk) -- reports preliminary Q2 EBIT €19M vs year-ago (€76.6M)
GAM.SW (Gam Holding) -- expects H1 underlying pretax loss of ~ (CHF23M) vs year-ago (CHF15.4M); board continues to strongly recommend Liontrust offer to all shareholders
BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost) -- reports preliminary Q2 EBIT DKK353M vs FactSet DKK582.9M [9 est, DKK511.6-720.0M]
Also reporting today
Earnings:
Nordics: Investor (INVE.B.SS), Sagax (SAGA.B.SS), Softronic (SOF.B.SS), Orion (ORNBV.FH), Biotage (BIOT.SS), Volati (VOLO.SS), Gofore (GOFORE.FH), Bong (BONG.SS)
UK: Brickability Group (BRCK.LN),
Trading Update: Galp Energia (GALP.PL), Richemont (CFR.SW), Alphawave IP Group (AWE.LN), Aramis Group (ARAMI.FP), CATANA Group (CATG.FP), DFS (DFS.LN)
Traffic: Aeroport de Paris ADP (ADP.FP)
M&A
PROX.BB (Proximus), 543228.IN (Route Mobile) -- Proximus to acquire a 57.6% controlling stake in Route Mobile for initial consideration INR59.22B (€643.0M) cash at INR1,626.40/share
MRVI (Maravai Lifesciences) -- Merck KGaA among parties looking at Maravai Lifesciences - Betaville, citing sources (roughly 11:30 ET/17:30 CET)
BT.A.LN (BT Group) -- Don't hold your breath for BT Group to be bought - Sunday Times
STAN.LN (Standard Chartered) -- enters into sale agreements with Access Bank Plc
CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) -- 3F drops out; Daniel Kretínský to win control of Casino - FT
IMCD.NA (IMCD) -- acquires O&3 for undisclosed terms
Healthcare
FME.GR (Fresenius Medical Care) -- appoints Michael Sen as Chair of new Supervisory Board
STMN.SW (Straumann Holding) -- Straumann Group appoints Yang Xu as new CFO
CAMX.SS (Camurus) -- announces new Phase 3 data reinforcing long-term safety and efficacy of octreotide SC depot (CAM2029) in patients with acromegaly
Other
BN.FP (Danone) -- notes decision of Russian authorities aimed at placing Russia under temporary external administration of the Russian authorities
CARL.B.DC (Carlsberg) -- notes decree places Baltika Breweries under temporary Russian state administration
TSCO.LN (Tesco plc) -- Tesco pressuring suppliers to help it cut prices - Sunday Times
PNDORA.DC (Pandora) -- looking to expand into new countries - Sunday Times
AM.FP (Dassault Aviation) -- Dassault Aviation's Navy Rafale selected by Indian Navy
BOO.LN (boohoo Group) -- Allianz Trade slashes credit cover for Boohoo suppliers - Sunday Times
MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology) -- Street Takeaways - Meyer Burger Technology Selected by EU Innovation Fund for €200 of funding
FING.B.SS (Fingerprint Cards) -- secures new financing through convertible loans and a fully guaranteed rights issue
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $140.2M, +5.6% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Hindustan Aeronautics, Safran Helicopter Engines to set up JV; terms undisclosed
Odfjell Drilling signs contracts with Equinor worth ~$290M over 23 months, parties also sign stretagic collaboration agreement
Sovereign Metals enters investment agreement with Rio Tinto and issues 83.1M-shares priced at A$0.4869/sh, equates to 15% stake for A$40.4M
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ENX.FP (Euronext) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
ELISA.FH (Elisa) -- to hold from sell at DnB Markets, to hold from reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
LIME.SS (Lime Technologies) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
BOY.LN (Bodycote) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
SPX.LN (Spirax-Sarco Engineering) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
HMS.SS (HMS Networks) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
JMAT.LN (Johnson Matthey) -- to buy at Deutsche Bank
MOR.GR (Morphosys) -- to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank
EQT.SS (EQT) -- to buy from hold at Nordea
VCT.LN (Victrex) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
HMS.SS (HMS Networks) -- to hold from sell at ABG Sundal Collier
LIFCO.B.SS (Lifco) -- to hold from reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
SOBI.SS (Swedish Orphan Biovitrum) --d to hold from sell at Carnegie
AMS.SM (Amadeus IT Group) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Downgrades
ROR.LN (Rotork) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
SXS.LN (Spectris) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
DUNI.SS (Duni) -- short-term recommendation downgraded to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
KMR.LN (Kenmare Resources) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- to hold from buy at ABG Sundal Collier
Initiations
CMB.IM (Cembre) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
Data
Nikkei +0.00% to 32391.26
Hang Seng +0.00% to 19413.78
Shanghai Composite (1.21%) to 3198.38
S&P futures (3.3) vs prior close of 4536.8
€-$ +0.0004 or +0.04% to 1.1234
$-¥ (0.21) or (0.15%) to 138.61
€-¥ (0.17) or (0.11%) to 155.70
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