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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.32%, Hang Seng (2.05%), Shanghai Composite (0.37%) as of 04:10 ET

Jul 18 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mixed Tuesday. Gains on the Nikkei and Topix as it marked-to-market developed market gains yesterday, Hong Kong also catching up after being closed yesterday but instead saw steep losses. Mainland China saw more selling. Seoul and Taipei under pressure, Australia down as commodity prices fell. India touched fresh record highs before scaling back gains, Southeast Asia all lower although Thailand outperformed. US futures soft, Europe paring opening losses. US dollar down, yen strengthening, AUD unmoved on RBA minutes; Thai baht notably stronger on domestic political developments. Treasury yield curve steepening. Crude oil blends higher, industrial metals lower, precious metals higher.

    • Asia ex Japan markets back under pressure Tuesday as follow through from China's weak economic data yesterday continued. Hong Kong caught up with yesterday's data, seeing across-the-board losses. Property stocks underperformed on publication of China Evergrande FY results for 2021-22, which were lower than consensus forecasts. Sell-side analysts lowered China GDP growth forecasts following underwhelming Q2 GDP and June activity data yesterday, and despite the state planner today vowing to launch consumer-supportive policies soon. Bloomberg reported planned curbs on US investment in China likely to be narrower than expected and only affect new investments. RBA minutes were unremarkable, showing members decided to hold last week given risk of sharp economic slowdown but repeated further tightening may be required. Domestic political issues building in Thailand, where May's general election winner is struggling to win the nomination for PM role; Singapore, where a recent government minister probe and Speaker resignation are complicating power transition for the ruling party; in Malaysia, where an opposition politician was arrested shortly before state elections; and in China, where Beijing's foreign minister has been absent for three weeks amid rumors of an extra-marital affair.

    • MUFG (8306.JP) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will merge some equity operations at their Japan-based joint ventures in H1 2024. China Evergrande (3333.HK) published its delayed annual results that showed a loss of CNY 476B ($66.4B) for 2021 and CNY105.9B ($14.7B) for 2022; stock remains suspended. A Sino-Ocean Group (3377.HK) unit suspends trading in an onshore bond pending result of negotiations with holders; stock down sharply. CITIC Securities (6000030.CH) says it plans to move dozens of its bankers from its offshore CLSA platform to the mainland to cut costs. Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK) is to issue nearly 408M shares for a STAR Market listing.

  • Digest:

    • China state planner vows to launch policies supporting consumption soon:

      • China state planning body NDRC said it will launch policies supporting recovery and expansion of consumption soon. Aiming to stabilize general consumption, promote consumption in automobiles, home appliances as well as in rural area. Reiterated push of earlier policies on EV charging infrastructure and EV adoption in rural areas (SecuritiesTimes). NDRC officials also vowed to de-risk in real estate, financials and local debt safely, ensure energy supply during summer peak. Meeting with private sector will be held regularly to solicit ideas from entrepreneurs. Reuters reported NDRC head Zheng Shanjie met private sector representatives Monday in latest attempt to improve confidence. Came after China economy lost further momentum in Q2, adding to calls for Beijing to step up stimulus measures. ChinaSecuritiesJournal citing economists noted PBOC likely to cut RRR by 25 bp in Q3 as early as July, meanwhile ShanghaiSecuritiesNews cited analysts saying higher chances for RRR cuts in October and December given large volumes of maturing loans due.

    • China data pose mostly negative GDP forecast implications:

      • Economist takeaways following the China GDP and activity data were broadly bearish. Despite noting some discrepancies between the raw year-ago vs sequential changes as recent quarters were revised, they saw a meaningful slowdown in growth momentum (turning outright negative q/q by some estimates). GDP forecast revisions were mostly negative. Deutsche Bank was the most notable -- downgrading 2023 growth to 5.3% (from 6.0%) with quarterly sequential growth shaved to the lower 1% pace over the next year (from mid-1% range prior), only slightly firmer than 0.8% in Q2. Barclays tentatively sees an average 4.9% q/q saar growth in H2 with extra stimulus factored in; 2023 was adjusted down to 4.9% from 5.3%, mostly due to technical carryover effects from the disappointing Q2. Goldman Sachs sees a sharper acceleration in Q3, though growth was revised down to 5.5% q/q saar from 6.5% and subsequent quarters unchanged. Leaves 2023 unchanged at 5.4%. UBS also maintained their 2023 estimate at 5.2% while attributing more downside risk depending on developments in stimulus, housing market and global demand.

    • RBA saw stronger case to hold in July, reiterates some further tightening may be required:

      • July RBA minutes noted board members debated whether to hold or hike cash rate by 25 bp at this month's meeting. Case for hike based on risk of inflation remaining above target for longer than projected given stickiness in some CPI categories. Also noted largest part of electricity price hikes yet to be seen in inflation data more broadly. However, RBA saw stronger case to hold given rapid and considerable tightening to date, effects of which had yet to be fully felt in economy. Falling inflation also helping to mitigate rise in medium-term inflation expectations. Highlighted risk of growth slowing by more than expected given potential for consumption slowing more sharply than implied by forecasts. Reiterated some further tightening may be required depending on evolution of economy and inflation. Indicated August meeting is 'live' with members having benefit of additional data, updated economic forecasts and revised assessment of risks.

    • US aims for narrow limits on China tech investments to begin in 2024:

      • Washington intends to propose final list of investment limits into China by end August, implementation at start of 2024 with investment curbs likely to be focused on AI, semiconductors and quantum computing, according to Bloomberg report. Restrictions will only affect new investments, will spare energy and biotechnology reflecting how much ambitions have been scaled back by White House. Treasury Secretary Yellen said Monday restrictions would not have fundamental impact on affecting investment climate for China (Bloomberg). Analysts said six-month delay in imposing curbs gives administration time to ease tensions with Beijing, assess public and corporate feedback, while also appeasing China hawks and US companies such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) which see China as revenue growth source. Added investors ought to be relieved White House is doing this carefully with only most egregious items outright prohibited.

    • US officials and chip companies discuss China policy:

      • Reuters reported US chip company executives met with top Biden administration officials on Monday to discuss China policy. Led by Secretary of State Blinken in a follow-up to his recent China trip, other notable participants said to include Commerce Secretary Raimondo, National Economic Council director Brainard and National Security Council director Sullivan, meeting with Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Nvidia (NVDA). Discussions included supply chain developments, speeding up disbursement of CHIPS Act funding, and ensuring US policy does not shut the chip firms out of the lucrative Chinese market. Earlier, Semiconductor Industry Association lobbied Biden administration to "refrain from further restrictions" on chip sales to China and urged the administration to allow "the industry to have continued access to the China market. Meetings follow China's move to restrict exports of raw materials such as gallium and germanium, which was also discussed.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +5.9% 285.HK (BYD Electronic (International)): guides H1 net income attributable to increase by 115-146% y/y

      • +2.1% 005490.KS (POSCO): guides Q2 EBIT KRW1.3T vs consensus KRW1.203T

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -9.2% 3377.HK (Sino-Ocean Group Holdings): unit suspends trading of onshore bond due 2-Aug as repayment talks with bondholders are ongoing

      • -4.5% 700.HK (Tencent Holdings): Prosus reportedly to cut stake in Tencent by 2-3 ppts every year but will remain as long-term shareholder

      • -3.4% 1347.HK (Hua Hong Semiconductor): proposes to issue 407.8M A-shares for STAR Market listing

      • -2.5% 009540.KS (HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co.): reports Jan-Jun new orders $15.58 vs year-ago $16.03B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • No economic data today

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 102.63 or +0.32% to 32493.89

      • Hang Seng: (398.06) or (2.05%) to 19015.72

      • Shanghai Composite: (11.81) or (0.37%) to 3197.82

      • Shenzhen Composite: (5.33) or (0.26%) to 2042.37

      • ASX200: (14.70) or (0.20%) to 7283.80

      • KOSPI: (11.38) or (0.43%) to 2607.62

      • SENSEX: 137.44 or +0.21% to 66727.37

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.55) or (0.40%) to 138.1570

      • $-KRW: (4.33) or (0.34%) to 1259.7400

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.10%) to 0.6811

      • $-INR: (0.05) or (0.07%) to 82.0170

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.01% to 7.1725

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".

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