Jul 19 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended with a positive tilt Wednesday. Hong Kong looked set for another sharply lower day before rallying in its afternoon session, mainland markets mixed. Seoul also rallied to the flat line, Taipei stayed in the red. Gains for Australia, Singapore and India, Southeast Asia mixed. Japan surged on weaker yen. US futures mostly higher, Europe paring opening gains while the UK outperforms on lower-than-expected CPI. US dollar stronger, yen weaker on BOJ comments, yuan also weaker despite weaker-than-expected mid-point fixing. Treasury yields higher at the long end, lower at the short. Crude blends a little lower, precious metals flat, industrials down a little. Cryptocurrencies recovering, bitcoin back above $30K.
Asia markets in a choppy day's trading but ended mostly in positive territory, as US and European futures turned positive and Hong Kong rallied just as Beijing said it would roll out plans to stabilize the country's industrial sector. Meanwhile, state-run press noted Chinese banks were yet to lower mortgage rates following a PBOC push for lenders to help reduce financing costs for borrowers. Market continues to eye upcoming Politburo meeting for policy guidance with many economists expecting further RRR and interest rate cuts.
Yen weakened notably after BOJ Governor Ueda said still some distance to go to achieve its 2% inflation target. Japan nationwide CPI Friday expected to show core inflation edging higher on the back of higher electricity prices; inflation ex-food and energy seen hovering near 42-year high. Reuters Tankan survey showed Japan manufacturer sentiment fell for first time in six months amid weakening global demand. New Zealand Q2 inflation came in just above consensus forecasts. Thailand's PM hopeful Pita barred from parliament pending probe into alleged ownership of media shares just hours before second vote for PM.
ROHM (6963.JP) is to invest ¥100B in JIP's investment fund to participate in the privatization of Toshiba Group (6502.JP). Greenland Holdings (337.HK) is reported by Bloomberg to have defaulted on a 6.75% dollar bond it guaranteed. BrainChip Holdings (BRN.AU) received a patent grant in the US for one of its advanced AI chips; stock surged. Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) warned of China headwinds as iron ore shipments slide, says economic recovery fallen short of expectations. Woodside Energy (WDS.AU) said LNG buyers worry that Australia government policies covering domestic resources and emissions could limit exports.
Digest:
BOJ Governor Ueda remains cautious on inflation outlook:
According to Reuters, BOJ Governor Ueda told a news conference at the India G20 there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target, signaling his resolve to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy for the time being. Asked about a possible decision to tweak YCC this month, Ueda referred to the MPC consensus outlook, continuing the debate over whether inflation will slow meaningfully from about mid-FY23 as the BOJ expects. Recalled an earlier discussion piece, in which sources indicated BOJ has been internally discussing YCC tweaks as early as this month though no final decision has been made. One person said any tweak would likely be minor, such as widening the yield target band, rather than an overhaul. Bloomberg discussed attention on Friday's nationwide CPI data for June. Core inflation is expected to edge up to 3.3% y/y from 3.2% in the prior month, largely on the back of higher electricity prices. Ex-fresh food & energy series seen remaining near four-decade highs at 4.2%.
China plans to roll out plans to stabilize industrial sector:
China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) spokesperson said country's industrial sector faces challenges including insufficient demand and declining revenues, adding ministry is formulating plans to stabilize growth in ten key sectors, including auto, electronics and steel. Added aiming to expand effective demand by "increasing supply, improving quality, establishing brand" in consumer goods and materials. Remarks came one day after 13 government departments released plan to boost household consumption on everything from electric appliances to furniture as China's growth data disappoints, however economists say piecemeal measures like these fall short of being "game changer" in ways policies intended to stabilize property demand would (Bloomberg). SCMP noted firms like Invesco and Nomura have poured cold water over chances of massive stimulus package from upcoming Politburo meeting. Noted authorities may cautiously implement supportive fiscal policy to ensure public spending and investment have positive spillovers to productivity and household demand.
Chinese banks adopt 'wait and see' on repricing of existing housing mortgages:
SecuritiesTimes reported Chinese banks including CCB (939.HK), ICBC (1398.HK), China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) and BOC (3988.HK) have not yet started lowering existing housing mortgages. Comes after PBOC head of monetary policy Zou Lan said bank would support and encourage commercial banks to independently negotiate with borrowers to change contracts or replace existing loans, first time PBOC called for such action since 2008 GFC. Chinese banks seen growing early repayment by borrowers as many with existing housing mortgages have to pay higher interest rates than those with new loans, generally with lower premiums on top of LPR. Industry experts noted commercial banks would gradually implement repricing of existing mortgages in a differentiated way based on cities. Also noted PBOC's guidance likely to help boost domestic consumption, alleviate "balance sheet recession" facing many homeowners and banks, although more holistic policy tools need to be implemented to boost demand.
New Zealand inflation slows by less than forecast, but RBNZ seen remaining on hold:
New Zealand Q2 inflation came in at 1.1% q/q, ahead of consensus 0.9% but below prior quarter's 1.2%. On annual basis inflation slowed to 6.0% from 6.7%. While this was above expectations for a 5.9% read, it came in below RBNZ's prior 6.1% forecast. Non-tradables inflation eased to 6.6% from record high of 6.8% in Q1. Main contributors were food prices, which rose in June at fastest pace since 1987. Housing the next largest contributor though residential construction cost inflation fell to lowest in two years. Rent inflation little changed at elevated levels. Biggest drag came from sharp fall in fuel costs and lower airfares. Tradables inflation fell to 5.2% from 6.4% in prior quarter. While economists noted signs of ongoing inflation stickiness in some components of CPI basket, continuation of disinflation trend likely enough to keep RBNZ on hold over near-term.
Notable Gainers:
+8.2% 326030.KS (SK Biopharmaceuticals Co.): CEO Lee Dong-hoon says company plans to reach market cap of KRW19T by 2025
+7.7% 3339.HK (Lonking Holdings): guides H1 net income CNY282-382M, +91-158% y/y
+7.7% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): targets payout ratio of 30%
+0.4% 1798.HK (China Datang Corp. Renewable Power): reports June power generation 2.1M MWh, +5.9% y/y
+0.4% 2503.JP (Kirin): Blackmores shareholders vote in favour of proposed acquisition by Kirin through scheme of arrangement
Notable Decliners:
-33.1% BTOU.SP (Manulife US REIT): asset valuations decline resulting in financial covenant breaches, impact on distributions
-9.9% 1513.TT (Chung-Hsin Electric & Machinery Mfg.): chairman sentenced to 5 years and 10 months by second instance, Q2 reports NT$2.1B confiscation
-2.6% 6963.JP (ROHM Co.): to invest ¥100.0B in JIP's investment fund to participate in Toshiba privatization
-1.7% 601138.CH (Foxconn Industrial Internet): denies it has signed investment agreement to build factory in India
-0.0% 3382.JP (Seven & i): reports June 7-Eleven, Inc. same-store merchandise sales +1.0% y/y
Data:
Economic:
Japan July
Reuters Tankan manufacturers' sentiment index +3 vs +8 in prior month
Service sector index +23 vs +24 in prior month
New Zealand Q2
CPI +1.1% q/q vs consensus +0.9% and +1.2% in prior quarter
CPI +6.0% y/y vs consensus +5.9% and +6.7% in prior quarter
Markets:
Nikkei: 402.14 or +1.24% to 32896.03
Hang Seng: (63.41) or (0.33%) to 18952.31
Shanghai Composite: 1.02 or +0.03% to 3198.84
Shenzhen Composite: (5.29) or (0.26%) to 2037.08
ASX200: 39.90 or +0.55% to 7323.70
KOSPI: 0.62 or +0.02% to 2608.24
SENSEX: 73.39 or +0.11% to 66868.53
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.61 or +0.44% to 139.4430
$-KRW: (1.09) or (0.09%) to 1264.2700
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.36%) to 0.6786
$-INR: +0.03 or +0.03% to 82.1050
$-CNY: +0.04 or +0.51% to 7.2168
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