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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +1.80% to 7588.20, DAX (0.10%) to 16108.93, CAC40 +0.11% to 7326.94, STOXX 600 +0.26% to 461.97

Jul 19 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets generally closed the day higher. Pan-European indices initial extended modest opening gains before becoming range-bound for the remainder of the session

    • With shares ending below opening level and at the lower end of the day's trading range, Belgium +1.6%, Greece +1.2%, Portugal +1.0% and Ireland +0.8%, join FTSE100 in leading outperformers. Spain and Sweden both (0.1%) are the only country benchmark indices to end lower on the day

    • Economic releases included UK inflation data, that showed a greater than expected deceleration. This led to an increasing number of market participants moderating expectations for the BOE's next interest rate increase to +25bps rather than +50bps, and peak benchmark rate now seen topping out at below 6%. Sterling came under pressure and UK housebuilders benefited Barratt Development (BDEV.LN) +7.0%, Persimmon (PSN.LN) +8.3% and Taylor Wimpey (TW.LN) +6.8%. Eurozone and Austria Jun final CPIs were in line with preliminary releases and Portugal PPI fell more than expected

    • European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) Jun new passenger car registrations for the EU + EFTA + UK +18.7% y/yx

    • As Ukraine's counteroffensive continues to make slow progress, Ireland's Varadkar became the latest EU leader to visit the country. President Putin won't be attending the BRICS summit in South Africa. In UK, PM Sunak and Labour Party leader Starmer clash over NHS and spending in final PMQs before tomorrow's three by-elections.

    • Among the region's leading companies with earnings/updates were Renault Group (RNO.FP) reports H1 worldwide PC + LCV sales 1.13M vehicles, +12.0% y/y, and Aviva (AV.LN) releases 2022 comparative financial information restated for IFRS 17 and IFRS 9, together with 2023 outlook. Nordic companies included AAK.SS (AarhusKarlshamn) Q2 EPS SEK2.36 vs FactSet SEK2.26 [5 est, SEK2.15-2.36] and SKF.B.SS (SKF) Q2 adj EPS SEK5.36 vs consensus SEK4.72, maintains FY outlook. Also, Trelleborg (TREL.B.SS) Q2 EBITA from continuing ops SEK1.56B ex-items vs FactSet SEK1.51B; seen a slight slowdown in order intake compared with previous quarters, Q3 demand will be somewhat lower than in Q2, Volvo (VOLV.B.SS) Q2 EPS SEK5.30 vs consensus SEK6.57 and Assa Abloy (ASSA.B.SS) Q2 EPS SEK3.36 ex-items vs consensus SEK3.55 and announces intends to acquire Evolis (ALTVO.FP) for €43.75/share

    • Other M&A news flow included Carlsberg (CARL.B.DC) update on temporary management in Baltika Breweries saying it's unclear about implications on ongoing operations of Baltika Breweries in Russia as well as the current sales process. Also, Nordea Bank (NDA.SE.SS) agreeing to acquire Danske Bank's (DANSKE.DC) personal customer business and associated savings assets in Norway, the Swedish bank expects positive impact on the group's EPS and ROE, whilst the Danish bank says deal will not change FY23 current financial guidance. Gam Holding (GAM.SW) board continues to strongly recommend Liontrust's (LIO.LN)offer, notes Newgame offer is not for all shares in GAM. Bloomberg reported that Lidl interested in taking over 600 Casino (CO.FP) and Monoprix stores

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Real Estate +4.29%, Oil & Gas +1.09%, Financial Svcs +1.03%, Food & Beverage +0.71%, Telecom +0.68%, Health Care +0.60%, Utilities +0.53%, Construct & Mtls +0.47%

      • Underperformers:

        • Basic Resources (1.09%), Media (0.65%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.41%), Retail (0.25%), Technology (0.23%), Insurance +0.04%, Banks +0.07%, Autos & Parts +0.10%, Chemicals +0.14%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.17%, Travel & Leisure +0.24%

    • Macro/Politics/Peripheral markets:

      • Central banks:

        • Bundesbank's Nagel interview with Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND) says abandoning the 2% inflation target would be a grave mistake - release

        • Bundesbank's Mauderer made opening speech at Oxford Sustainable Finance Summit, hosted by Univ. of Oxford

        • BOE's Ramsden due to deliver speech at 17:00BST on quantitative tightening at event hosted by Money Macro and Finance Society

      • Finland:

        • President and Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy considered the situation of the diplomatic missions of Finland and Russia - release

      • Greece:

        • Greece and Turkey seek to ease tensions between countries - ekathimerini

      • Ireland:

        • Taoiseach Varadkar makes a surprise visit to Kyiv, pledges support - RTE

      • Italy:

        • Tourism Minister Santanchè faces no-confidence motion on 26-Jul - Ansa

      • Spain:

        • Final Spain general election tv debate at 22:00CET on RTVE with four main parties invited, though PP's Feijóo not confirmed. The channel is running a pre-debate program from 20:30 - El Mundo; El Confidencial

      • UK:

        • Tory gloom ahead of triple by-election test - BBC

        • Tata Group to build 40GWh gigafactory in the UK - government press release

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +17.1% HYQ.GR (Hypoport) -- Q2 total transaction volume Europace €15.7B vs year-ago €26.4B

        • +10.0% CHRT.LN (Cohort) -- FY adjusted EPS 36.5p vs FactSet 34.8p [3 est, 34.5-35.0p]

        • +9.7% NHOA.FP (NHOA) -- Atlante deploys 87 fastcharging points in four service areas of the Vinci Autoroutes network

        • +9.2% RATO.B.SS (Ratos) -- Q2 EPS SEK1.79 vs FactSet SEK1.86 [4 est, SEK1.69-2.01]

        • +8.9% FEVR.LN (Fevertree Drinks) -- to outperform at BNP Paribas Exane

        • +8.7% ALESK.FP (Esker) -- Q2 revenue €45.1M vs year-ago €39.8M; raises FY organic revenue guidance

        • +8.7% BOOM.LN (Audioboom Group) -- H1 EPS ($0.65) vs year-ago $0.03

        • +8.1% THULE.SS (Thule Group) -- Q2 EPS SEK5.14 vs FactSet SEK4.86 [6 est, SEK4.58-5.13]

        • +8.1% HL.LN (Hargreaves Lansdown) -- Q4 Trading Update: AUA £134.0B vs consensus £134.2B

        • +7.9% AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings) -- upgraded to buy at Goldman Sachs

        • +7.5% KER.FP (Kering) -- management changes including departure of Gucci CEO Marco Bizzarri; buy from hold at Societe Generale

        • +7.1% NEX.FP (Nexans) -- awarded turnkey contract with a value of €1.43B for the section of the EuroAsia Interconnector that connects Greece and Cyprus

        • +7.0% SPR.LN (Springfield Properties) --FY preliminary revenue of ~£330M, +28% y/y

        • +5.7% WISE.LN (Wise Plc) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane

        • +5.4% VIRP.FP (Virbac) -- Q2 revenue €295.2M vs year-ago €298.3M, confirms outlook 2023

        • +5.3% BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost) -- to buy from hold at Carnegie Securities

        • +5.1% BG.AV (BAWAG Group) -- confirms prelim Q2 earnings as per 3-Jul update; increases 2023 financial targets

        • +4.3% PGH.LN (Personal Group Holdings) -- H1 revenue £46.4M vs year-ago £34.7M; Paula Constant will assume the role of CEO with immediate effect

        • +4.1% ADE.NO (Adevinta) -- to neutral from underperform at BofA

        • +4.1% IHP.LN (Integrafin Holdings) -- to buy from hold at Shore Capital Stockbrokers

        • +4.0% SVT.LN (Severn Trent) -- trading update: expects to deliver in line with expectations

        • +3.1% FIF.LN (Finsbury Food Group) -- FY sales £413.7M, +12.6% y/y (excl. Lees Foods acquisition)

        • +2.8% NG.LN (National Grid) -- to sell further 20% equity interest in its UK gas transmission and metering business; total proceeds from sale of ~ £0.7B

        • +2.7% TALEA.IM (Talea Group) -- preliminary H1 revenue €75.3M vs year-ago €54.9M

        • +2.6% NDX1.GR (Nordex) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

          • On earnings/updates: RTN.LN (Restaurant Group), DG.FP (VINCI), ALCOX.FP (Nicox), AV.LN (Aviva), RNO.FP (Renault) and reversing initial falls YCA.LN (Yellow Cake), ACAD.SS (AcadeMedia), LAGR.B.SS (Lagercrantz Group)

      • Notable Decliners

        • -39.9% WJG.LN (Watkin Jones) -- completes forward sale of Titanic Quarter; expects ~(£10M) impairment of certain non-core assets, updates guidance; CEO Richard Simpson steps down from role, effective immediately

        • -16.5% SBS.GR (Stratec) -- preliminary H1 revenue €125.0M vs year-ago €137.2M

        • -15.5% BAR.BB (Barco) -- H1 EBITDA €65M vs FactSet €67.4M [2 est, €64.8-70M]

        • -7.6% HEM.SS (Hemnet Group) -- Q2 EPS SEK0.94 vs year-ago SEK0.99

        • -7.1% EWRK.SS (Ework Group) -- Q2 EPS SEK1.84 vs year-ago SEK1.49; confirms FY outlook

        • -4.5% EPI.A.SS (Epiroc) -- to hold from buy at ABG Sundal Collier

        • -4.1% EMBELL.SS (Embellence Group) -- Q2 EPS (SEK0.10) vs year-ago SEK0.09

        • -3.3% NEL.NO (NEL) --to hold from buy at Arctic Securities

        • -3.2% VID.SM (Vidrala) -- H1 EPS €4.19 vs year-ago €1.81; FY23 guidance is reiterated

        • -2.1% ASML.NA (ASML Holding) -- Q2 EPS €4.93 vs consensus €4.63; raises FY net sales growth to +30% vs prior guidance +25%

        • -2.0% SHB.A.SS (Svenska Handelsbanken) -- Q2 EPS SEK3.59 vs FactSet SEK3.35 [12 est, SEK3.11-3.59]

        • -2.0% SAND.SS (Sandvik) -- Q2 EPS SEK2.65 vs consensus SEK3.05

        • -1.6% CTY1S.FH (Citycon) -- Q2 adjusted EPRA EPS €0.12 vs year-ago €0.15

        • -1.5% YAR.NO (Yara International) -- Q2 EPS ($0.36) vs consensus $0.74

          • On earnings/updates: ANTO.LN (Antofagasta), DANSKE.DC (Danske Bank), AAK.SS (AarhusKarlshamn), SKF.B.SS (SKF), BOI.FP (Boiron), TREL.B.SS (Trelleborg), HPOL.B.SS (HEXPOL) and reversing initial gains ASSA.B.SS (Assa Abloy)

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Benelux: Orange Belgium (OBEL.BB), Sligro Food Group (SLIGR.NA), Nedap (NEDAP.NA)

        • Germany: SAP (SAP.GR), Villeroy & Boch (VIB3.GR)

        • France: Publicis Groupe (PUB.FP), Dassault Aviation (AM.FP), Getlink (GET.FP), Covivio (COV.FP), GL Events (GLO.FP)

        • Finland: Kone (KNEBV.FH), Nokia (NOKIA.FH), Metso Outotec (METSO.FH), Uponor (UPONOR.FH), Atria (ATRAV.FH), Enento Group (ENENTO.FH), Cargotec (CGCBV.FH), Huhtamaki (HUH1V.FH), Fiskars (FSKRS.FH), F-Secure Oyj (FSECURE.FH)

        • Norway: Telenor (TEL.NO), TGS (TGS.NO), PGS (PGS.NO)

        • Southern Europe: Bankinter (BKT.SM)

        • Sweden: Essity (ESSITY.B.SS), Electrolux (ELUX.B.SS), Alfa Laval (ALFA.SS), Billerud (BILL.SS), Betsson (BETS.B.SS), Nolato (NOLA.B.SS), Mips (MIPS.SS), Fagerhult Group (FAG.SS), Intrum (INTRUM.SS), Alimak Group (ALIG.SS), Modern Times Group MTG (MTG.B.SS), Telia Co. (TELIA.SS), Indutrade (INDT.SS), Saab (SAAB.B.SS), Beijer Ref (BEIJ.B.SS), BYGGFAKTA GROUP (BFG.SS), Attendo (ATT.SS), Viaplay Group (VPLAY.B.SS), VBG Group (VBG.B.SS), CellaVision (CEVI.SS), Knowit (KNOW.SS), Nordic Waterproofing Holding (NWG.SS), BHG Group (BHG.SS), Nobia (NOBI.SS), Hansa Biopharma (HNSA.SS), Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS)

        • Switzerland: ABB (ABBN.SW), Givaudan (GIVN.SW), Georg Fischer (GF.SW), Temenos (TEMN.SW), Cembra Money Bank (CMBN.SW), Bossard Holding (BOSN.SW), medmix (MEDX.SW), Leonteq (LEON.SW), CPH Chemie + Papier Holding (CPHN.SW), Rieter Holding (RIEN.SW), Mikron Holding (MIKN.SW)

        • UK: Howden Joinery Group (HWDN.LN), IG Group Holdings (IGG.LN), Babcock International Group (BAB.LN)

      • Trading Update:

        • France: Eiffage (FGR.FP), STEF (STF.FP), Maurel & Prom (MAU.FP), Aubay (AUB.FP), Roche Bobois (RBO.FP), Sword Group (SWP.FP), Focus Entertainment (ALFOC.FP), Guerbet (GBT.FP), Amplitude Surgical (AMPLI.FP), Abéo (ABEO.FP), Xilam Animation (XIL.FP), Damartex (ALDAR.FP)

        • UK: SSE (SSE.LN), 3i Group (III.LN), Intermediate Capital Group (ICP.LN), easyJet (EZJ.LN), International Distributions Services (IDS.LN), Vistry Group (VTY.LN), Dunelm Group (DNLM.LN), QinetiQ Group (QQ.LN), AJ Bell (AJB.LN), Premier Foods (PFD.LN), PensionBee Group (PBEE.LN)

        • Production: Anglo American (AAL.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • UK Jun

        • CPI +7.9% y/y vs consensus +8.2%, prior +8.7%; +0.1% m/m vs consensus +0.4%, prior +0.7%

        • RPI +10.7% y/y vs consensus +10.9%, prior +11.3%; +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.4%, prior +0.7%

        • Output PPI +0.1% y/y vs consensus +0.5%, prior revised +2.7% from +2.9%; (0.3%) m/m vs consensus (0.3%), prior revised (0.6%) from (0.5%)

        • Input PPI (2.7%) y/y vs consensus (1.6%), prior revised +0.4% from +0.5%; (1.3%) m/m vs consensus (0.3%), prior revised (1.2%) from (1.5%)

      • Eurozone Jun CPI +5.5% y/y vs preliminary +5.5%; +0.3% m/m vs preliminary +0.3%

      • Austria Jun CPI +8.0% y/y vs preliminary +8.0%

      • Portugal Jun PPI (5.8%) y/y vs consensus (6.0%), prior (3.5%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Aug 23): +$0.71 or +0.94% to $76.46

      • €-$ (0.0035) or (0.31%) to 1.1196

      • £-$ (0.0150) or (1.15%) to 1.2886

      • €-£ +0.0072 to 0.8687

      • S&P 500 +0.39%

      • Performance year-to-date:

        • FTSE 100: +1.83%

        • DAX: +15.70%

        • CAC: +13.18%

        • MIB: +21.15%

        • Stoxx 600: +8.73%

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