Jul 21 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly higher Friday, led by Norway +0.6%, France +0.7%, Belgium +0.6% whilst Germany (0.2%) bucked the trend. Markets await next week's central bank policy decisions. Fed and ECB both expected to deliver 25-bp hikes. However, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed most economists think the ECB is unlikely to keep interest rate at their peak for an extended period, as the economy slows. Survey still showing a peak rate of 4%, albeit by a slim majority, and a quarter point rate cut is forecast by March of next year
In today's session SAP (SAP.GR) weighed on the German DAX as well as the European tech sector after its Q2 results revealed cloud revenues shy of consensus estimates. However, looking ahead analysts appear to be mostly upbeat on SAP's Gen AI opportunity. Basic Resources the worst performing sector today and on track for biggest wtd declines relative to sector peers amid concerns about China's economic outlook and disappointment with stimulus measures announced so far. Also SSAB (SSAB.B.SS) and Norsk Hydro (NHY.NO) weighing following Q2 results.
A busy session of earnings/updates saw further focus on the Nordic region with Wartsila (WRT1V.FH), Electrolux Professional (EPRO.B.SS), Danske Bank (DANSKE.DC) all outperforming on back of their respective results, while Stora Enso (STERV.FH), TietoEVRY (TIETO.FH), SCA (SCA.B.SS) saw negative reactions. Elsewhere, Schindler (SCHP.SW), Ubisoft (UBI.FP) saw advances on their latest report cards, and it was the opposite case for the likes of Lonza (LONN.SW) and Thales (HO.FP).
The Gfk UK consumer confidence index record its largest drop in sentiment in over a year, down 6 points to -30 in July, which was the first fall in expectations since January and the largest drop since April last year (FT). GfK blamed the continuing cost of living crisis, with higher interest rates affecting homeowners and renters alike. However, despite the notable deterioration in sentiment, official retail sales data surprised on the upside. ONS data showed sales volumes up 0.7% versus consensus for 0.2% rise and prior 0.3% gain, leaving y/y sales down 1% versus consensus for 1.5% drop and prior down 2.3% revised from 2.1%. ONS said all main sectors increase with summer sales and increased footfall boosting volumes. Food store sales bounced back as well after a May drop with good weather and promotions helping. Looking ahead, sales volumes may begin to dampen as households deplete excess savings and higher rates weigh further.
The week ahead sees Jul flash manufacturing/services PMIs, Germany Jul Ifo survey and Aug GfK consumer confidence, the first Q2 preliminary GDPs from across the region, as well as earnings from LVMH (MC.FP), L'Oreal (OR.FP), Nestle (NESN.SW), Roche (ROG.SW), AstraZeneca (AZN.LN), Shell (SHEL.LN), Mercedes-Benz (MBG.GR) and Volkswagen (VOW3.GR). This week may see the release of EU Commission's Summer economic forecasts, with European Banking Authority (EBA) stress test results also expected by the end of the month.
Over the weekend, Spain's general election takes place Sun. The BBC notes the Popular Party (PP) under Alberto Núñez Feijóo have their eye on victory but may struggle to form a government on their own. BBC adds to win a majority they need to secure more than half the 350 seats in the lower house of parliament. Spaniards will also vote for their upper house. The conservatives may need the support of far-right party Vox.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Consumer Products and Services +1.36%, Energy+0.89%, Utilities +0.86%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.64%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.58%, Insurance +0.50%, Retail +0.35%
Underperformers:
Basic Resources (1.52%), Technology (0.45%), Chemicals (0.42%), Telecom +0.04%, Autos & Parts +0.04%, Construct & Mtls +0.10%, Banks +0.11%, Media +0.14%, Real Estate +0.15%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.16%, Financial Svcs +0.24%, Travel & Leisure +0.29%
Macro:
ECB's High-for-Longer Rate Plan Fails to Convince Economists - Bloomberg
Spain snap election: National vote tests rising power of far-right in Europe - France24
Why Belgium may be about to break up - Politico
UK finance minister Hunt: We need to avoid reckless spending - Reuters
UK inflation data could portend a soft landing ahead - FT
Labour by-election win a cry for change, says Starmer - BBC
Company news:
Notable Gainers:
+39.7% TRUE.B.SS (Truecaller SEK43.10, +12.23) -- earnings
+19.2% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK6.43, +1.01) -- receives PLA code from the AMA
+14.9% DWF.LN (DWF Group £0.97, +0.13) -- Inflexion Private Equity Partners to acquire DWF Group for ~ £342M
+12.3% DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech €265.60, +29.30) -- earnings
+11.2% LIAB.SS (Lindab International SEK158.00, +15.90) -- earnings
+10.8% RESURS.SS (Resurs Holding SEK24.42, +2.40) -- earnings
+10.7% SEDANA.SS (Sedana Medical SEK24.48, +2.38) -- earnings
+8.9% EPRO.B.SS (Electrolux Professional SEK58.70, +4.80) -- earnings
+7.9% WRT1V.FH (Wartsila €11.40, +0.84) -- earnings
+7.2% SCHP.SW (Schindler Holding CHF215.40, +14.50) -- earnings
+6.3% RENX.LN (Renalytix £1.28, +0.08) -- distribution agreement
+6.1% VOLCAR.B.SS (Volvo Car SEK51.22, +2.95) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+5.9% FSECURE.FH (F-Secure €2.25, +0.13) -- Inderes Oy upgrade
+5.8% TOBII.SS (Tobii SEK17.02, +0.94) -- earnings
+5.8% KGH.LN (Knights Group Holdings £0.84, +0.05) -- Shore Capital Stockbrokers upgrade
+5.3% SF.SS (Stillfront Group SEK20.81, +1.05) -- earnings
+5.2% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment €28.69, +1.41) -- earnings
+4.6% SDIP.B.SS (Sdiptech SEK283.40, +12.40) -- earnings
+4.2% WHA.NA (Wereldhave €15.99, +0.65) -- earnings
+3.8% B3.SS (B3 Consulting Group SEK102.60, +3.80) -- earnings
+3.6% HUM.SS (Humana AB SEK27.65, +0.95) -- earnings
+2.8% BZU.IM (Buzzi SpA €24.52, +0.66) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+2.6% DPP.LN (DP Poland £0.08, -0.00) -- earnings
+2.5% SAMPO.FH (Sampo €39.72, +0.97) -- initiated buy at Goldman Sachs
+2.0% CONSTI.FH (Consti €10.25, +0.20) -- earnings
+1.7% AF.FP (Air France-KLM €1.61, +0.03) -- target increase at Stifel
+1.6% DANSKE.DC (Danske Bank DKK165.25, +2.65) -- earnings
+1.4% TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. NOK133.90, +1.90) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
Notable Decliners
-17.1% BLVN.LN (Bowleven £0.01, -0.00) -- notes recent movement in price of its shares; confirms that it is not aware of any particular reason for the sudden increase
-15.5% SINCH.SS (Sinch SEK25.02, -4.56) -- earnings
-13.7% SSAB.A.SS (SSAB SEK65.50, -10.42) -- earnings
-12.1% 4C.SS (4C Group SEK28.05, -3.85) -- earnings
-11.5% NCAB.SS (NCAB Group SEK64.45, -8.40) -- earnings
-11.1% LONN.SW (Lonza Group CHF494.10, -61.50) -- earnings
-11.0% STERV.FH (Stora Enso €10.20, -1.25) -- earnings
-9.3% ACCON.SS (Acconeer SEK26.15, -2.65) -- earnings
-9.1% THG.LN (THG Plc £0.99, -0.10) -- strategic review update;
-8.9% TIETO.FH (TietoEVRY €22.48, -2.18) -- acquisition; earnings
-8.5% RROS.SS (Rottneros SEK11.16, -1.02) -- earnings
-8.1% OX2.SS (OX2 AB SEK71.80, -6.35) -- earnings
-8.0% AM.FP (Dassault Aviation €167.30, -14.60) -- earnings
-7.8% LOOMIS.SS (Loomis SEK292.40, -24.60) -- earnings
-7.3% SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa SEK132.75, -10.35) -- earnings
-6.6% THRU.LN (Thruvision Group £0.29, -0.02) -- earnings
-6.3% IVSO.SS (INVISIO SEK219.00, -14.50) -- earnings
-5.8% ALFOC.FP (Focus Entertainment €41.20, -2.55) -- sales
-5.0% BEIA.B.SS (Beijer Alma SEK197.20, -10.30) -- earnings
-4.9% POLY.LN (Polymetal International £2.05, -0.11) -- update to the timetable of the Re-domiciliation
-4.7% FDE.FP (La Française de l'Energie €40.15, -1.95) -- prelim sales
-4.5% HO.FP (Thales €133.95, -6.25) -- earnings
-4.3% SAP.GR (SAP €120.92, -5.44) -- earnings
-4.0% BILI.A.SS (Bilia SEK106.40, -4.40) -- earnings
-3.9% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK13,675.00, -555.00) -- ABG Sundal Collier downgrade
-3.8% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK0.68, -0.03) -- to voluntary delist of American Depositary Shares from The Nasdaq Capital Marke
-3.7% MIPS.SS (MIPS SEK465.90, -18.10) -- Jefferies downgrade
-3.6% CTT.SS (CTT Systems SEK219.00, -8.00) -- earnings
-3.0% STOCKA.FH (Stockmann €2.10, -0.06) -- earnings
-2.9% NOBI.SS (Nobia SEK10.58, -0.32) -- DnB Markets downgrade
-2.9% PRFO.SS (Profoto Holding SEK79.00, -2.40) -- earnings
-2.7% SFAB.SS (Solid Försäkring SEK60.00, -1.70) -- earnings
-2.2% NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro NOK62.48, -1.38) -- earnings
-1.7% BIOG.B.SS (BioGaia SEK101.20, -1.80) -- earnings
-1.2% TYRES.FH (Nokian Renkaat €0.00, -0.10) -- earnings
-1.0% KNOW.SS (Knowit SEK143.80, -1.40) -- Nordea downgrade
-0.9% DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich €101.24, -0.90) -- JPMorgan downgrade
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
Benelux: Philips (PHIA.NA), Royal KPN (KPN.NA)
DACHs: Julius Baer Gruppe (BAER.SW), BELIMO Holding (BEAN.SW), Daetwyler Holding (DAE.SW), Software (SOW.GR), ATOSS Software (AOF.GR)
France: Icade (ICAD.FP), Plastic Omnium (POM.FP), ID Logistics Group (IDL.FP)
Southern Europe: Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY.SM), Almirall (ALM.SM)
UK/Ireland: Ryanair Holdings (RYA.ID), Moneysupermarket.com Group (MONY.LN)
Trading Update: Vodafone Group (VOD.LN), Cranswick (CWK.LN), Beneteau (BEN.FP)
Data:
Economics:
UK Jun Retail Sales (1.0%) y/y vs consensus (1.5%) and prior revised (2.3%) from (2.1%); +0.7% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.3%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 23): +$0.78 or +1.03% to $76.43
€-$ (0.0013) or (0.12%) to 1.1118
£-$ (0.0018) or (0.14%) to 1.2850
€-£ +0.0001 to 0.8653
S&P 500 +0.34%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.84%
DAX: +16.19%
CAC: +14.81%
MIB: +21.72%
Stoxx 600: +9.53%
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