Aug 10 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets finished higher, though off session's best levels. Austria, Greece, Denmark and Norway bucking the trend at the close. Insurance, luxury/personal goods and travel the best performers. Industrials, miners and healthcare the biggest decliners. US equities higher in midday trading, but off best levels. Treasuries mixed with the curve steepening. EU yields reversing gains, now mixed-to-lower with Bund unchanged at 2.46%. Dollar index down 0.2%; greenback seeing declines vs euro and sterling though some strength on the yen cross. Gold down 0.2%. Bitcoin futures flat. WTI crude down 1.0%, though still on pace for seventh-straight weekly gain.
Focus in Europe remains on banks in the wake of the Italian government announcing windfall tax and then hastily easing its stance, unnerving fragile investor confidence. Attention also on EU gas prices, which jumped 40% on Wednesday as Australia labour strikes risk 10% of global LNG. Shows evidence of tight supply. ECB economic bulletin flagged economic weakness in Eurozone and heightened uncertainty, which some take as increasing probability of Sept pause.
Looking at macroeconomic releases, inflation in Italy came in at +5.9% y/y vs preliminary +6.0%. Portugal Jul CPI came in line with consensus at +3.1% y/y, whilst Greece Jun Industrial Production missed at (3.6%) y/y vs cons (2.3%) and prior revised +1.9% from +1.4%. UK Jul house price balance (53%) vs consensus (50%) and prior revised (48%) from (46%), lowest since Apr-09. Despite the downbeat data, UK homebuilder stocks broadly advancing. Persimmon (PSN.LN) leading as it reported H1 Underlying EPS 35.9p vs consensus 34.7p and guided for FY completions at least 9,000 vs prior guidance 8,000-9,000.
In corporate, insurance amidst the outperforming sectors led by Allianz (ALV.GR), Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW) and Munich Re (MUV2.GR), which all reported strong Q2 earnings. Allianz's upbeat performance was driven by strength in its property-and-casualty segment offsetting weakness in asset management. Zurich Insurance was helped by its Life business and price hikes aimed at mitigating higher insurance claims from unpredictable weather. Munich Re was hit in part by losses in the disposal of fixed-income securities, but it said there was a better chance of beating its FY targets. Industrial Goods & Services one of the biggest decliners with the focus on Siemens AG (SIE.GR) and Rheinmetall (RHM.GR). Siemens missed Q3 analyst expectations amid weakening demand in several markets including China and lowers guidance for digital industries business, while Rheinmetall's operating profit decreased by (7%) y/y but it affirmed its FY guidance as it benefited from growing demand for weapons and ammunition amid the war in Ukraine. In Health Care, another notable decliner today, focus on Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) after company warned that supply of the obesity medicine Wegovy would continue to be restricted in the US due to capacity constraints.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Consumer Products and Services +2.66%, Insurance +1.96%, Real Estate +1.57%, Technology +1.53%, Travel & Leisure +1.50%, Chemicals +1.25%, Retail +1.16%, Banks +1.00%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.93%, Autos & Parts +0.86%, Telecom +0.81%, Utilities +0.83%
Underperformers:
Basic Resources (0.92%), Oil & Gas(0.23%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.15%), Health Care +0.29%, Media +0.39%, Construct & Mtls +0.53%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.67%
Macro:
ECB
Flags deterioration of economy and increasing uncertainty in monthly bulletin: ECB Economic Bulletin
ECB in dilemma over policy outlook amid Germany's economic problems: Reuters
UK:
European gas price jumps almost 40% over supply disruption fears - FT
Australia labor strikes risk 10% of Global LNG in threat of new energy shock - Bloomberg
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Greece:
Fuels rekindle inflation fears - Kathimerini
Ireland
Rent inflation 'stabilises' in Dublin, Daft report shows - Irish Times
Denmark
House prices in Denmark rise as wages go up and interest rates stabilize - Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+12.1% YSN.GR (secunet Security Networks €219.00, +23.70) -- H1 earnings
+6.7% GFT.GR (GFT Technologies €26.36, +1.66) -- H1 earnings
+6.6% VTSC.GR (Vitesco Technologies Group €81.80, +5.10) -- Q2 earnings
+6.4% SBB.B.SS (Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden SEK4.39, +0.26) -- clarification regarding financial report for Q2
+6.2% ECT.NA (Eurocastle Investment €7.70, +0.45) -- Q2 NAVPS
+6.2% WEW.GR (Westwing Group €8.89, +0.52) -- Q2 earnings
+5.6% CEC.GR (CECONOMY €2.76, +0.15) -- Q3 earnings
+4.8% MRK.LN (Marks Electrical Group £0.99, +0.05) -- trading update
+4.7% ALV.GR (Allianz €224.60, +10.00) -- Q2 earnings
+4.6% ZOO.LN (Zoo Digital Group £0.64, +0.03) -- FY earnings
+4.3% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £7.10, +0.29) -- Q1 revenue
+4.2% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €6.92, +0.28) -- Q3 earnings
+4.0% HNR1.GR (Hannover Re €202.30, +7.70) -- Q2 earnings
+3.7% LEG.GR (LEG Immobilien €65.16, +2.30) -- Q2 earnings
+3.5% KBX.GR (Knorr-Bremse €65.38, +2.20) -- Q2 earnings; raises FY guidance
+3.3% CRBN.NA (Corbion €22.14, +0.70) -- H1 earnings
+3.2% MUSTI.FH (Musti Group €18.11, +0.56) -- Q3 earnings
+2.7% ROO.LN (Deliveroo £1.27, +0.03) -- H1 earnings
+2.4% PSN.LN (Persimmon £11.52, +0.28) -- H1 earnings
+2.4% MUV2.GR (Munich Re €353.30, +8.30) -- Q2 earnings
+2.3% DOC.AV (DO & CO €123.00, +2.80) -- Q1 earnings
+1.9% SEM.AV (Semperit Holding €21.25, +0.40) -- H1 earnings
+0.9% COK.GR (CANCOM €24.80, +0.22) -- Q2 earnings
+0.3% ONCO.SS (Oncopeptides SEK7.96, +0.02) -- Q2 earnings
+0.2% ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group CHF420.90, +0.70) -- H1 earnings
Notable Decliners
-15.3% JIM.LN (Jarvis Securities £1.25, -0.23) -- trading update
-12.1% MOBA.NO (Morrow Bank NOK3.98, -0.55) -- Q2 earnings
-12.0% VSCA.GR (4SC €8.45, -1.15) -- Q2 update
-11.0% WIE.AV (Wienerberger €26.06, -3.24) -- Q2 earnings
-10.8% ISS.DC (ISS A/S DKK127.15, -15.45) -- H1 earnings; to divest its French business except for Global Key Account customers
-10.3% SVS.LN (Savills £8.91, -1.02) -- H1 earnings
-8.9% AGY.LN (Allergy Therapeutics £0.03, -0.00) -- FY revenue
-8.6% GLJ.GR (GRENKE €24.00, -2.25) -- lowers FY guidance
-7.6% S92.GR (SMA Solar Technology €76.80, -6.30) -- H1 earnings
-7.2% JUN3.GR (Jungheinrich €30.88, -2.38) -- Q2 earnings
-6.6% ETTE.FH (Etteplan €16.20, -1.15) -- Q2 earnings
-6.0% GFG.GR (Global Fashion Group €0.47, -0.03) -- Q2 earnings
-5.9% SBMO.NA (SBM Offshore €13.05, -0.82) -- H1 earnings
-5.7% HLAG.GR (Hapag-Lloyd €181.50, -11.00) -- Q2 earnings
-5.7% PBB.GR (Deutsche Pfandbriefbank €7.16, -0.44) -- Q2 earnings
-5.5% KBC.BB (KBC Group €64.52, -3.74) -- Q2 earnings
-5.1% A28890.GR (CompuGroup Medical €42.42, -2.30) -- Q2 earnings
-5.1% RELAIS.FH (Relais Group €13.00, -0.70) -- Q2 earnings
-5.1% NORSE.NO (Norse Atlantic NOK21.65, -1.16) -- Jul update
-5.0% SIE.GR (Siemens AG €139.32, -7.32) -- Q3 earnings
-4.7% REG1V.FH (Revenio Group €23.14, -1.14) -- Q2 earnings
-4.3% PFC.LN (Petrofac £0.84, -0.04) -- H1 earnings
-3.9% HARVIA.FH (Harvia Group €22.00, -0.90) -- Q2 earnings
-3.7% TLT1V.FH (Teleste €3.43, -0.13) -- Q2 earnings
-3.7% PYT.AV (Polytec Holding €4.34, -0.17) -- H1 earnings
-3.7% MXCT.LN (MaxCyte £3.28, -0.13) -- Q2 earnings
-3.4% SOLAR.B.DC (Solar DKK493.50, -17.50) -- Q2 earnings
-2.8% SPX.LN (Spirax-Sarco Engineering £105.50, -3.00) -- H1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Lotus Bakeries (LOTB.BB)
DACH: EnBW Energie Baden Wurttemberg (EBK.GR), Bechtle (BC8.GR), MVV Energie (MVV1.GR), Salzgitter (SZG.GR), Energiekontor (EKT.GR), Varta (VAR1.GR), PATRIZIA (PAT.GR), CEWE Stiftung & Co. (CWC.GR), OVB (O4B.GR), EQS Group (EQS.GR), GESCO (GSC1.GR), Fabasoft (FAA.GR), Rosenbauer International (ROS.AV)
Nordics: SimCorp (SIM.DC), Rovio Entertainment (ROVIO.FH), Olvi (OLVAS.FH), Pihlajalinna (PIHLIS.FH), Remedy Entertainment (REMEDY.FH), Kamux (KAMUX.FH), Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. (OET.NO), AKVA Group (AKVA.NO)
Ireland: FBD Holdings (EG7.ID)
Traffic: Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide (FRA.GR)
Data:
Economics:
Italy Jul CPI +5.9% y/y vs prelim +6.0%; 0.0% m/m vs prelim +0.1%
EU Harmonised: +6.3% y/y vs prelim +6.4%; (1.6%) m/m vs prelim (1.5%)
Portugal Jul CPI +3.1% y/y vs prelim +3.1%; (0.4%) m/m vs prelim (0.4%)
Greece Jun Industrial Production (3.6%) y/y vs cons (2.3%) and prior revised +1.9% from +1.4%
Sweden Jun Industrial Production (2.8%) y/y vs cons +0.9% and prior revised +3.9% from +3.8%; (5.5%) m/m vs cons +0.4% and prior revised 0.0% from +0.3%
Denmark Jul CPI +3.1% y/y vs cons +1.8% and prior +2.5%; +1.8% m/m vs cons +0.5% and prior +0.3%
Norway Jul
PPI (35.4%) y/y vs cons (46.7%) and prior (28.5%)
CPI +5.4% y/y vs cons +5.7% and prior +6.4%; +0.4% m/m vs cons +0.7% and prior +0.6%
Netherlands Jun Manufacturing Production +0.7% m/m vs cons (0.7%) and prior +0.8%
Austria Jun Industrial Production (3.4%) y/y vs cons (1.0%) and prior revised (1.9%) from (0.7%)
Ireland Jul CPI +5.8% y/y vs cons +5.8% and prior +6.1%; +0.2% m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior +0.8%
EU Harmonised: +4.6% y/y vs prelim +4.6%; +0.2% vs m/m prelim +0.2%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 23): ($0.79) or (0.94%) to $83.61
€-$ +0.0048 or +0.44% to 1.1022
£-$ +0.0014 or +0.11% to 1.2731
€-£ +0.0027 to 0.8656
S&P 500 +0.80%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.24%
DAX: +14.89%
CAC: +14.83%
MIB: +20.52%
Stoxx 600: +9.26%
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