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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.37%, Hang Seng (1.82%), Shanghai Composite (1.24%) as of 04:10 ET

Aug 21 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities finished mixed Monday. Hang Seng and Shanghai lost more ground as PBOC disappointed with smaller-than-expected LPR cuts sending both to YTD lows. Japan held on to modest gains, Australia drifted lower into the close. Seoul ended a handful of points higher, Taiwan was flat. India higher, Southeast Asia mixed as Thailand rose on potential break in political impasse. US futures higher, European markets opened higher. US dollar flat, yuan weaker, other Asia currencies largely flat. Treasury yields higher across tenors including the 10Y back above 4.3% for a time, China's 10Y yield at three-year low 2.6%. Crude prices higher, copper and iron ore prices higher. Precious metals mixed.

    • Asia equities starting the week with another negative day with the Hang Seng and Shanghai markets reacting poorly to the smaller-than-expected cut to 1Y LPRs, despite it now at record lows, and to the 5Y which was kept unchanged. China's stocks, the yuan and government bond yields all dipped post the LPR announcement, Several commentators generously suggested the PBOC will rely on other tools to support the beleaguered housing market however consensus viewed the move as negative with the PBOC showing it may have increasingly limited options to revive credit growth given weak demand.

    • On Sunday, the PBOC met with banks to encourage them to boost lending while Caixin reported some highly leveraged local governments have been authorized to raise CNY1.5T in special bonds to repay debt. CSRC also announced reforms aimed at encouraging share buybacks. Yet economists again issued more warnings of systemic risks from China's property crisis and lowered outlooks. Goldman Sachs became the latest, lowering its outlook on Chinese stocks for a second time in three months after downgrading EPS growth estimates.

    • Several of Country Garden's (2007.HK) bondholders are said to be demanding full repayment of a local bond due early next month after the company offered a three-year extension for the note. Unions at Woodside Energy's (WDS.AU) North West Shelf LNG platforms voted unanimously to give a seven day notice period before industrial action would start. A2 Milk (ATM.NZ) said China's falling birth rate and weak growth are dragging on infant formula demand; stock down sharply.

  • Digest:

    • China LPR cuts less than expected, 'asymmetry' calls wrongfooted:

      • LPR fixings saw 1y rate cut 10 bp to 3.45%, below consensus forecast of a 15 bp reduction, while 5y rate was unchanged at 4.20% against expectations of at least a 15 bp ease. While adjustment in 1y rate was consistent with last week's unexpected 15 bp cut in the MLF rate, forecasts leaned towards a larger reduction in 5y amid stronger calls for housing market support. Reuters consensus poll found forecasts for lower 1y and 5y rates were unanimous overall. Early takeaways reflected genuine surprise, particularly at the 5y rate, questioning what the ceiling is for property market stimulus after the latest Politburo statement omitted the key mantra that 'housing is for living in, not speculation' (Bloomberg). Some thoughts today's action may imply 5y LPR easing is not the preferred channel and authorities will look to other measures. May reflect ongoing caution against overheating in the property market. Also a suggestion that authorities lack viable tools amid recent discussions China is falling into a liquidity trap rendering monetary easing ineffective. (Nikkei). Going forward, press continue to note market expectations for further monetary easing in the form of a 25 bp RRR cut soon, consistent with some economists' calls for a move in Q3.

    • China talks up more financial support, local government debt assistance:

      • PBOC released a joint statement with the NFRA and CSRC, stressing efforts to enhance financial support for the real economy, as well as to prevent and defuse local-government debt risks (Xinhua). Vowed to strengthen credit support for small business, along with sectors such as green development, technological innovation and manufacturing, the renewal of urban villages and the construction of public infrastructure. Also committed to enrich policy tools and measures for preventing and defusing debt risks. While there were no specifics, Bloomberg (citing Caixin) reported central government plans to allow local governments to sell CNY1.5T ($205.9B) of LGSB to help 12 regions repay debt. Regions include Tianjin, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi and Chongqing. PBOC may set up a special purpose vehicle with banks to provide low-cost and long-term liquidity to local government financing vehicles to help reduce liquidity risks. On Friday, a CSRC official said they are considering measures to revitalize its capital markets, including extending stock trading hours and easing buyback rules (Nikkei). Also looking to boost trading in Hong Kong perhaps via expanding Stock Connect and opening up government bond futures trading in HK.

    • Bank of Thailand likely to pause on rates following slower-than-expected GDP data:

      • Thailand's economy expanded at slower-than-expected 1.8% in Q2 y/y, below consensus of 2.1% and Q1's 2.6%. On q/q basis, GDP grew 0.2% versus estimate of 1.2%. Analysts said slower growth may see BoT pause on its policy tightening programme to preserve growth momentum in economy. Weighing on growth, continued political impasse, which is stopping key reform legislation to be passed including on government spending, lower-than-projected tourism numbers, and a sharp slide in exports. National Economic and Social Development Council also lowered its FY growth forecast to 2.5-3.0% from 2.7-3.7% previously. Economists said elevated levels of household debt, severe drought also weighing on economy. Separately, BangkokPost said Pheu Thai is set to announce 14-party alliance Monday in bid to break political logjam; Srettha Thavisin, expected to be nominated as country's next PM. Coalition would have 317 votes, 58 short of bicameral majority.

    • Global chip giants paring back investment:

      • Nikkei top story featured analysis of 10 major global semiconductor firms showing aggregate capital spending plans set to contract 16% in FY23 to $122B, marking the first decrease in four years. Momentum in factory construction continues, spurred by government initiatives, though softer economic growth in China cited as a headwind. By segment, investment in chips for smartphones undergoing the biggest contraction of 44%, while products for PCs and data centers set to drop 14%. Article noted US-China competition prompted front-loading of outlays, taking the nominal amount among these 10 names to a record $146.1B in FY22 that prompted concerns of over-extension. Inventories among nine firms that disclosed figures were up about 10% as of June-end and 70% higher compared to 2020 when semiconductor shortages became serious. Cutbacks to chip production and capex announced among companies such as Micron Technology (MU) and SK Hynix (000660.KS). Analysts forecast Intel (INTC) to reduce investment for the first time in three years. Also noted over-supply has depressed prices, noting DRAM and NAND are down about 40%. However, EV and AI remain growth drivers.

    • Australian LNG workers give notice of industrial action, risking strike:

      • Unions representing workers at at Woodside Energy's (WDS.AU) North West Shelf LNG platforms have voted unanimously to give seven days' notice they intend to take industrial action if there is no progress on pay talks on Wednesday (Financial Review, Reuters). That means such action could occur as early as 2-Sep, though it is unclear whether it will involve specific work bans or indefinite strikes. Workers at Chevron's (CVX) Wheatstone and Gorgon LNG plants will return their ballots by Thursday. Woodside and Chevron's facilities produce ~10% of global LNG and European gas futures have spiked in recent weeks amid fears disruption to Australian LNG shipments will force Asian buyers to compete with Europe for cargoes. However, also thoughts unions will settle on limited action given costs to both sides from a blanket strike that cripples LNG shipments.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +4.4% 136.HK (China Ruyi Holdings): expects to record H1 net loss approximately (CNY259M-269M) vs year-ago net profit of CNY147.4M

      • +2.4% 011200.KS (HMM): LX Group reportedly may submit offer for HMM; Global Sae-A decides not to participate in bidding

      • +1.6% 9868.HK (XPeng, Inc.): reports Q2 revenue CNY5.06B vs FactSet CNY5.06B and guidance CNY4.5-4.7B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -21.7% 9959.HK (Linklogis): guides H1 net income attributable (CNY165-175M) vs year-ago CNY43M

      • -5.6% 316.HK (Orient Overseas (International)): reports H1 revenue $4.54B vs year-ago $11.06B, EBIT $1.13B vs year-ago $5.75B

      • -5.6% 600583.CH (Offshore Oil Engineering): reports H1 net income attributable CNY983.3M vs guidance CNY886.0M-1.08B

      • -3.7% 601336.CH (New China Life Insurance): chairman Li Quan reportedly retires

      • -3.1% 960.HK (Longfor Group Holdings): reports H1 revenue CNY62.04B, (35%) vs year-ago CNY94.80B, pretax income CNY12.37B, (22%) vs year-ago CNY15.93B

      • -0.4% 8031.JP (Mitsui & Co.): agrees to acquire Dermaceutical Laboratories; terms undisclosed

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • New Zealand July

        • Trade balance (NZ$1.11B) vs consensus (NZ$50M) and revised (NZ$111M) in June

          • Exports (14.0%) y/y

          • Imports (16.0%) y/y

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 114.88 or +0.37% to 31565.64

      • Hang Seng: (327.56) or (1.82%) to 17623.29

      • Shanghai Composite: (38.98) or (1.24%) to 3092.98

      • Shenzhen Composite: (19.42) or (1.00%) to 1930.83

      • ASX200: (32.60) or (0.46%) to 7115.50

      • KOSPI: 4.30 or +0.17% to 2508.80

      • SENSEX: 296.27 or +0.46% to 65244.93

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.08 or +0.05% to 145.4990

      • $-KRW: +1.05 or +0.08% to 1341.2100

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.10%) to 0.6401

      • $-INR: (0.07) or (0.08%) to 83.0870

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.20% to 7.2958

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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