Aug 21 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly higher but off best levels, after posting lowest levels in over a month last week. Autos, Energy and Basic Resources outperformed. Real estate and Construction/Materials lagged.
UK Chancellor Hunt under pressure to freeze business rates again amid warning it could hit small firms and undermine investment. Latest developments in Ukraine also in the spotlight after Denmark and Netherlands agreed to send Ukraine F-16 fighter jets for its counteroffensive, though unclear when planes will be delivered.
The London Times cited analysis by actuarial consultancy Barnett Waddingham, which showed UK pension funds may have up to £50B to invest under new pension reform rules. Article highlighted that the big backup in gilt yields over the last two years has seen many workplace pensions schemes shift from deficit to healthy surplus. Chancellor Hunt has put forward several proposals to enable pensions schemes to invest more, especially in productive UK assets.
Italian government reportedly planning to partly reimburse banks for new profit tax via tax credit spread over several years (CorrieredellaSera). Tax credit could be spread over five or 10 years, and may reach 100% of the windfall tax applied. Proposal would allow Meloni government to obtain €3B this year and not face strenuous outflows in 2024. However, recall how BNP Paribas Exane said levy will only slightly reduce banks' excess capital which will nonetheless remain substantial. Hence, analysts do not believe banks will materially alter dividend policies nor commercial practices with regards to deposit pricing. Stability of Meloni government also seen remaining strong (Bloomberg).
Quiet macro calendar to start the week. German producer prices saw larger-than-expected drop in July. Latest update from UK property portal Rightmove showed asking prices are falling at the fastest rate since summer of 2018 as property market slows.
Light on the corporate front. Of note, Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST.LN) closed (7.9%) lower after company cut FY outlook profit outlook amid challenging trading conditions as high interest rates and inflationary pressures drive homebuyers away; now expects FY 2023 adj. PBT to be ~£50.0M from prior guidance for FY23 adj PBT to be in line with published consensus of £73.7M. Self Storage Group (SSG.NO), B&S Group (BSGR.NA), Aluflexpack (AFP.SW) also finished lower post Q2/ H1 earnings.
In other notable corporate developments, Direct Line (DLG.LN) reportedly in talks with Adam Winslow to take over as CEO. Covestro (1COV.GR) appoints Christian Baier as new CFO. Finnair (FIA1S.FH) CEO steps down to join Elisa Corporation (ELISA.FH).
In M&A, FT reports Polymetal International (POLY.LN) seeking to sell Russian business within the next six months. Sources tell The Australian that extensive discussions between Entain (ENT.LN) and Racing Victoria have taken place in recent weeks over a deal for Racing.com.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Autos & Parts +1.10%, Energy+0.62%, Basic Resources +0.35%, Health Care +0.31%, Consumer Products and Services +0.23%, Technology +0.21%, Banks +0.13%
Underperformers:
Real Estate (1.95%), Construct & Mtls (0.62%), Chemicals (0.30%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.29%), Telecom (0.27%), Utilities (0.26%), Financial Svcs (0.25%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.23%), Media (0.18%), Insurance (0.10%), Retail (0.06%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.01%)
Macro:
ECB:
Italy set to back former Drachi ally Franco for ECB post - Bloomberg
Germany:
German minister proposes tougher rules on Chinese foreign direct investment - FT
Italy:
Italy reportedly could partly reimburse banks for new profit tax - CorrieredellaSera
Italian Treasury struggling to find money needed to cover tax cuts and additional spending expected in coming budget - LaStampa
UK:
Asking prices for UK homes suffer sharpest August drop since 2018 - FT
UK jobs market lost some of its heat in July - Reuters
Rishi Sunak wins no credit from voters for lower inflation - London Times
Rishi Sunak scales back plans for major Cabinet reshuffle - Telegraph
Sunak to spend £100M of taxpayer cash on AI chips in global race for computer power - Telegraph
Sinn Fein and the DUP see further gains in latest opinion poll - Belfast Telegraph
Ukraine:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+6.4% AGAS.NO (Avance Gas Holding NOK99.80, +6.00) -- contract
+5.9% GUBRA.DC (Gubra DKK107.98, +6.00) -- agrees to collaborate with Hemab; Gubra will receive a single digit DKK million payment in Q3
+5.8% CON.GR (Continental €69.62, +3.82) -- Continental's chairman Wolfgang Reitzle prepares the demerger of the group - Manager Magazin
+4.8% SPM.IM (Saipem €1.50, +0.07) -- assumed overweight at Morgan Stanley
+4.5% EAST.SS (Eastnine SEK150.00, +6.45) -- Dagens Industri out with buy recommendation
+4.3% CRBN.NA (Corbion €21.32, +0.88) -- Berenberg upgrade
+4.3% INDV.LN (Indivior £18.35, +0.76) -- reaches agreement with end payor class to resolve their antitrust multi-district litigation claims
+4.1% ACR.NO (Axactor NOK5.60, +0.22) -- Chair acquires 100k shares
+4.1% GFG.GR (Global Fashion Group €0.40, +0.02) -- repurchases portion of outstanding convertible bonds due 2028
+3.9% JLP.LN (Jubilee Metals Group £0.07, -0.00) -- issues South Africa and Zambia project expansion update
+3.6% NOG.LN (Nostrum Oil & Gas £0.13, -0.00) -- recommence limited-scale drilling programme in Chinarevskoye field
+3.4% DPEU.LN (Dp Eurasia £0.52, +0.02) -- DpRussia to file for bankruptcy
+3.3% DEMANT.DC (Demant DKK284.50, +9.00) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+2.5% ARCAD.NA (ARCADIS €41.72, +1.00) -- initiated buy at Jefferies
+2.1% IRLAB.A.SS (IRLAB Therapeutics SEK7.66, +0.16) -- secures full ownership of the mesdopetam project and continues product development
+1.8% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK304.00, +5.40) -- BioArctic's partner Eisai receives regulatory approval in Japan for Leqembi - Japan Times citing a health ministry official
+1.5% UBXN.SW (u-blox Holding CHF76.50, +1.10) -- UBS upgrade
Notable Decliners
-60.6% FCRM.LN (Fulcrum Utility Services £0.00, -0.01) -- FY earnings
-8.4% ADYEN.NA (Adyen €799.00, -73.00) -- Morgan Stanley and Jefferies downgrade
-7.9% CRST.LN (Crest Nicholson Holdings £1.79, -0.15) -- FY trading update
-6.8% FIA1S.FH (Finnair €0.50, -0.04) -- CEO steps down to join Elisa Corporation
-5.7% MPCC.NO (MPC Container Ships NOK18.88, -1.14) -- DnB Markets downgrade
-2.9% VIRP.FP (Virbac €264.50, -8.00) -- Stifel downgrade
-2.3% AFP.SW (Aluflexpack CHF15.64, -0.36) -- H1 earnings
-1.6% SSG.NO (Self Storage Group NOK24.50, -0.40) -- Q2 earnings
-1.5% BSGR.NA (B&S Group €3.85, -0.06) -- H1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACH: flatexDEGIRO (FTK.GR), SFC Energy (F3C.GR), Arbonia (ARBN.SW)
Nordics: Royal Unibrew (RBREW.DC), Better Collective (BETCO.SS), Synsam (SYNSAM.SS), Norva24 (NORVA.SS), BICO (BICO.SS), Egetis Therapeutics (EGTX.SS), Wastbygg Gruppen (WBGR.B.SS), Cantargia (CANTA.SS), MPC Container Ships (MPCC.NO), Agilyx (AGLX.NO), Nordhealth (NORDH.NO), GC Rieber Shipping (RISH.NO), Green Hydrogen Systems (GREENH.DC)
UK: John Wood Group (WG.LN), Anexo (ANX.LN), Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Germany Jul PPI (6.0%) y/y vs consensus (5.1%) and prior +0.1%
UK Aug House House Index (1.9%) y/y vs prior (0.2%) - Rightmove
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 23): +$0.43 or +0.53% to $81.68
€-$ +0.0014 or +0.13% to 1.0887
£-$ (0.0002) or (0.02%) to 1.2733
€-£ +0.0016 to 0.8550
S&P 500 +0.01%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (2.60%)
DAX: +12.06%
CAC: +11.19%
MIB: +18.01%
Stoxx 600: +5.59%
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