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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.92%, Hang Seng +0.95%, Shanghai Composite +0.88% as of 04:10 ET

Aug 22 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mostly higher Tuesday after a positive session overnight on Wall Street. Hong Kong rose in its afternoon session to end around 1% higher, mainland bourses also pared morning losses. Japan strong all day, modest gains for Australia, South Korea, Taiwan. Southeast Asia higher, Singapore underperformed. India turned positive after weak start. US futures higher, Europe opened with solid gains as it caught up with Wall Street. US dollar lower, Asia currencies relatively quiet, yuan stable as Beijing supports via swaps. Treasury yields down at the long end, higher at the short; JGB yields at nine-year highs, Australian at 10Y highs, New Zealand sovereign yields 12Y high. WTI futures back below $80/bl, gold and industrial metals slipping on weaker dollar.

    • Focus still on global bond markets with equities taking a back seat just as sovereign yields globally break to multi-month or even multi-year highs. US 10Y yields reached highest sine 2007 in the wake of robust economic data, Fitch's downgrade to US sovereign paper, and signals the Fed could continue QT post its first rate cut. Market now penciling in higher rates for longer, and a 50/50 chance of one more hike to come by November. Global inflationary pressure also reigniting in form of higher rice and wheat prices, and European LNG prices. However, despite the surge in yields, equities steady with Nasdaq's overnight moving higher and feeding through to Asia's tech-heavy bourses today.

    • SoftBank's (9984.JP) Arm Holdings unit filed for its IPO with a roadshow expected in early September, pricing shortly after; valuation expectation $60-70B. BHP (BHP.AU) said it still sees solid growth in some sectors in China but still posted its weakest annual profit since 2020, said it was too early to assess impact of Beijing's policy measures on housing market. Woodside Energy (WDS.AU) CEO said the spike in European gas prices on concerns over industrial action at one of its fields was "irrational".

  • Digest:

    • Asia bond yields hit fresh multi-year highs, currencies remain under pressure:

      • Asia bond prices fell again Tuesday morning sending yields to multi-week or even multi-year highs. Yields tracked Treasuries that spiked higher Monday on growing fears Fed Reserve will keep rates higher for longer on robust economic data. Fitch's sovereign downgrade US, signal Fed could extend QT beyond first rate cut also supportive (FT). Treasury 10Y yield as high as 4.36% in Asia trading Tuesday, Asia yields followed: Japan 10Y JGB touched nine-year high, highest since 2014 (Bloomberg), Australia's 10Y at decade-long high, South Korea yields also higher. Indonesia spiking most over seven days, up 0.3%; Singapore yields also among those sharply higher. New Zealand's 10Y yield at 12-year high (NZD fell for tenth successive day Monday). Other Asia currencies also under pressure as dollar maintains strength, especially trade-related AUD. Yen weakened to multi-year highs, yuan affected by cuts to rates, economic weakness, more signs of capital outflow.

    • SoftBank's Arm files for IPO, likely to be the biggest of 2023:

      • SoftBank's Arm Holdings filed for biggest US IPO since 2021 Monday with roadshow scheduled to begin first week of September, pricing second week, in what could be windfall for SoftBank (9984.JP) following record $30B loss in 2022. Company nor filing did not disclose sale terms but expected to fetch $60-70B valuation for Nasdaq listing following internal transaction earlier in August (FT). Offering led by Barclays (BARC.LN), Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Mizuho Financial Group (8411.JP). If successful, offering will be largest technology-based IPO following Alibaba's 2014 $25B debut, Facebook's (Meta) 2014 $16B IPO (Bloomberg). Listing seen as test of strength for US IPO market post substantial 18-month drought. Prospectus showed Arm depends on China for quarter of revenue run through company that it does not control, admitted this as risk factor. Company's chips have near monopoly on smartphone chips but future revenue based on cloud, automotive markets, according to filing.

    • Yuan has more room to depreciate despite Beijing's pushback:

      • PBOC set daily yuan fixing with strongest bias on record on Tuesday, just after previous record set last Friday as Beijing pushes to stabilize currency. However Wall Street sees plenty of room for yuan to depreciate against dollar to possibly reach 7.50 level (Bloomberg). Strategists noted yuan's weakness shaped by weak Chinese economy and relatively low yields. Noted US 2Y Treasuries now yield 290 bp above Chinese counterparts, a level las seen in mid-2006 when onshore yuan traded near 8 per dollar. Lack of concrete stimulus to boost consumer spending and contagion fears over property crisis further dampen investor confidence. Came after PBOC vowed to "step up macroeconomic policy adjustment" and pledged to prevent excessive movements in exchange rate. Offshore yuan funding costs soared most since 2017 amid speculation that authorities making it more expensive to bet against yuan. Analysts noted authorities may be forced to sell dollars amid persistent gap between yuan fixing and market expectations.

    • BOJ underlying inflation hits new highs:

      • BOJ underlying inflation metrics strengthened further to new highs in July. Trimmed mean rose 3.3% y/y following 3.0% in July, surpassing the prior peak of 3.1% in May. Weighted median rose 1.6% vs prior 1.4%, while mode inflation increased 3.0% for the first time. Diffusion index also logged a new high at 77.2% as proportion of increasing items growing to 85.6%. Trimmed mean and mode series now virtually on par with core CPI though still below ex-fresh food & energy running in the 4% range. Recall BOJ's latest upward revision to its FY23 core inflation forecast in July was attributed to greater than expected pass-through of import cost increases, while balance of risks seen skewed to the upside for FY23/24. Inflation trend is still seen decelerating, though there was no longer mention of expectations this would materialize from around mid-FY23. Overall, attention on BOJ has died down after having delivered the long speculated YCC revision, and economists do not see another move for the rest of this year.

    • Foreign selling of JGBs continues to attract attention:

      • Nikkei cited Japan Securities Dealers Association data showing foreign investors sold net JPY1.35T ($9.26B) in JGBs in July, marking the first outflow in six months amid expectations BOJ YCC tweak would lead to higher yields. Size largely erases net buying of JPY1.51T in June. YCC revision announcement in July-end seen as the pivotal catalyst. While consistent with MOF data reported earlier, different breakdown revealed foreign selling concentrated in 10y (JPY1.36T), followed by 2y~5y (JPY299B) and superlongs (JPY292B). Outflows seen reflecting short positions in anticipation of the BOJ meeting. Market now looks to how much short-covering will ensue as further yield backup would encourage profit-taking. MUFJ Morgan Stanley sees 0.7% 10y yield as the tipping point. Meanwhile, domestic JGB purchases were led by insurers, mainly in ultralong maturities, totaling JPY801.5B for the highest level since March. Recall recent discussions that domestic institutions are apt to shift portfolio weightings from foreign bonds to JGBs on the prospects for higher domestic yields.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +1.4% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): Arm Holdings files US IPO of indeterminate size through Barclays, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Mizuho

      • +1.1% 9432.JP (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone): Japan reportedly to allow NTT pursue 6G technology by easing regulatory laws

      • +0.6% 175.HK (Geely Automobile Holdings): reports H1 net income attributable CNY1.57B vs year-ago CNY1.55B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -17.0% 1137.HK (Hong Kong Technology Venture): guides H1 net income HK$45.0-50.0M vs year-ago HK$127.8M

      • -3.9% 002202.CH (Goldwind Science & Technology Co.): reports H1 net income attributable CNY1.25B vs year-ago CNY1.92B

      • -3.4% 600004.CH (Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport): Shanghai International Airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport deny rumors of plans to lower duty

      • -1.7% 4523.JP (Eisai): reportedly receives regulatory approval in Japan for Leqembi

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • No economic data today

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 291.07 or +0.92% to 31856.71

      • Hang Seng: 167.72 or +0.95% to 17791.01

      • Shanghai Composite: 27.36 or +0.88% to 3120.33

      • Shenzhen Composite: 9.05 or +0.47% to 1939.88

      • ASX200: 6.10 or +0.09% to 7121.60

      • KOSPI: 6.94 or +0.28% to 2515.74

      • SENSEX: 96.89 or +0.15% to 65312.98

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.51) or (0.35%) to 145.7160

      • $-KRW: (5.21) or (0.39%) to 1335.1600

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.44% to 0.6441

      • $-INR: (0.16) or (0.20%) to 82.9660

      • $-CNY: +0.02 or +0.32% to 7.2658

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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