Aug 23 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher, however, well off best levels of the session. Just Austria, Belgium, Greece and Norway bucking the trend at the end of trading. US equities higher in midday trading. Treasuries stronger across the curve following some semblance of rate stabilization on Tuesday. Bund and Gilt yields down sharply data with moves in excess of 10 bps. Dollar index little changed with greenback lagging vs yen, little changed vs euro and stronger vs sterling. Gold up 1%. Bitcoin futures up 1.3% after finishing down in ten of the last eleven trading sessions. WTI crude down 0.8%, off worst levels after bigger crude draw than expected. Industrial metals higher. European gas prices sharply lower as Australia's Woodside meet unions meet for keys talks over LNG facilities. Defensive sectors the best performers. Utilities, Real Estate, Health Care, Telecom all the stronger; cyclicals lag with energy and retail the main decliners.
Eurozone PMIs came in focus today; euro area in contraction after German and French readings see big miss in services reading. Similar dynamic in UK PMIs with manufacturing weak and services now in contraction. The European Commission's latest consumer confidence reading showed a deterioration in sentiment with headline at (16.0) versus consensus (14.3) and prior (15.1). Consumer confidence in the bloc has improved since late last year and the August reading is the first weaker update since March. An update from UK human resource publication and data provider XpertHR said pay awards from UK firms eased for the first time this year in the quarter to July
Amidst light corporate news flow, in Health Care, spotlight on Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.DC) big Q2 earnings beat, while FY23 guidance maintained. Roche (ROG.SW) published positive lung cancer drug trial data from an interim analysis, while GSK (GSK.LN) announced positive results from the first-ever efficacy trial of its preventative shingles treatment in China. Out of the Nordics, Mowi (MOWI.NO) reported Q2 numbers with underlying EPS €0.35 vs FactSet €0.37 along with a dividend of NOK2.00/share, while LSG.NO reported better Q2 performance. In Benelux, Agfa-Gevaert (AGFB.BB) traded lower post Q2 results with net income from cont. ops (€17M) vs year-ago (€20M); expects a recovery in FY23 profitability vs year-ago. Alfen (ALFEN.NA) was also down following Q2 report with adjusted EBITDA €8.4M vs FactSet €16.5M
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Real Estate +2.12%, Utilities +1.12%, Health Care +1.06%, Telecom +0.90%, Travel & Leisure +0.82%, Basic Resources +0.77%, Technology +0.73%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.53%, Financial Svcs +0.48%, Insurance +0.44%
Underperformers:
Oil & Gas(1.09%), Retail (1.02%), Autos & Parts (0.47%), Banks (0.34%), Construct & Mtls (0.06%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.12%, Consumer Products and Services +0.19%, Chemicals +0.24%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.39%
Macro:
Eurozone PMI weakest since November 2020, but wages remain a concern - Reuters, Bloomberg
Falling eurozone business activity raises doubts over ECB's next move - FT
UK:
UK-India trade talks enter 'final, trickier' stage, government sources - BBC
BoE warns on corporate default risk - FT
British small businesses see sales sink by 20% - Bloomberg
Sunak to delay cabinet reshuffle until later in year - London Times
European equities set for a better 2024 than this year, despite cheaper valuations -- Reuters poll
Russia offers to swap frozen assets with the west - FT
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Local banks must be spared windfall tax says Tajani - ANSA
Spain:
King Felipe VI asks conservative leader Feijóo to form government - Europapress; Politico; FT
Denmark
Danish consumer outlook worsens for first time in 10 months - Bloomberg
Greece
Record tourism revenue in H1 - Kathimerini
Iceland
Central Bank raises benchmark interest rate +50bps to 9.25% vs expectation for a smaller increase - Statement, Monetary Bulletin, forecast tables
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+18.2% CBRAIN.DC (cBrain DKK172.60, +26.60) -- H1 earnings
+13.7% KABE.B.SS (KABE Group SEK248.50, +30.00) -- H1 earnings
+11.4% ZAP.NO (Zaptec NOK32.74, +3.36) -- Q2 earnings
+10.8% LOGI.A.SS (Logistea SEK9.33, +0.91) -- signs 7-year lease agreement within the property Bofors 1:47 in Karlskoga
+8.0% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK160.45, +11.85) -- Q2 earnings
+6.5% COST.LN (Costain Group £0.51, +0.03) -- H1 earnings
+6.3% LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group NOK43.84, +2.60) -- Q2 earnings
+5.6% B2H.NO (B2Holding NOK6.92, +0.37) -- Q2 earnings
+5.5% CHRT.LN (Cohort £5.10, +0.27) -- contract
+4.3% SOBI.SS (Swedish Orphan Biovitrum SEK219.20, +9.00) -- terms of ~SEK 6.024B rights issue; Apellis Pharmaceuticals provides updates on rare safety events with SYFOVRE (pegcetacoplan injection)
+3.9% TNIE.GR (tonies €5.01, +0.19) -- Q2 revenue
+3.8% ROG.SW (Roche Holding CHF262.55, +9.50) -- been made aware of an inadvertent disclosure of the second interim analysis related to Phase III Skyscraper-01 study
+3.7% SALT.B.SS (SaltX Technology Holding SEK3.72, +0.13) -- Q2 earnings
+2.9% MOWI.NO (Mowi NOK184.90, +5.25) -- Q2 earnings
+2.1% GABR.DC (Gabriel Holding DKK384.00, +8.00) -- Q3 earningsx
Notable Decliners
-14.5% JAY.LN (Bluejay Mining £0.01, -0.00) -- raises £600K via private placement of 60.0M shares at 1.0p/share
-14.4% VOW.NO (Vow ASA NOK12.94, -2.18) -- H1 earnings
-9.8% ALFEN.NA (Alfen €51.60, -5.60) -- Q2 earnings
-6.6% NEXT.NO (Next Biometrics Group NOK5.36, -0.38) -- Q2 earnings
-6.5% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK210.00, -14.60) -- EQT's top executives preparing to sell shares worth up to SEK 20B, or 7% of the company -- Dagens Industri
-6.3% ALFOC.FP (Focus Entertainment €35.15, -2.35) -- launch of Atlas Fallen, developed by Deck 13, is below initial forecasts
-5.7% GAPW.B.SS (Gapwaves SEK20.70, -1.25) -- Q2 earnings
-5.1% ALNG.NO (Awilco LNG NOK8.88, -0.48) -- Q2 earnings
-4.7% AMSC.NO (AMSC ASA NOK42.95, -2.10) -- Q2 earnings
-4.2% ORON.SW (ORIOR CHF72.70, -3.20) -- H1 earnings
-3.4% AGFB.BB (Agfa-Gevaert €2.26, -0.08) -- Q2 earnings
-3.2% SES.SS (Scandinavian Enviro Systems SEK1.34, -0.04) -- Q2 earnings
-3.2% SPG.DC (SP Group DKK211.00, -7.00) -- Q2 earnings
-2.8% GUBRA.DC (Gubra DKK104.00, -3.00) -- terminates collab with Bayer (BAYN.GR)
-2.7% ZEAL.DC (Zealand Pharma DKK268.40, -7.40) -- holder Danmarks Eksport- og Investeringsfond places 1.9M shares at DKK260/share
-2.6% AROC.SS (AroCell SEK0.50, -0.01) -- Q2 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Tessenderlo (TESB.BB), Deceuninck (DECB.BB), Van Lanschot Kempen (VLK.NA),
France: Ramsay Generale de Sante (GDS.FP)
DACH: Swiss Prime Site (SPSN.SW), Kudelski (KUD.SW), Liechtensteinische Landesbank (LLBN.SW), SoftwareONE (SWON.SW), Molecular Partners (MOLN.SW), CTS Eventim & Co. (EVD.GR), Fielmann (FIE.GR), Einhell Germany (EIN3.GR), DATAGROUP (D6H.GR), Allane (LNSX.GR), Nabaltec (NTG.GR), NFON (NFN.GR), Multitude (FRU.GR), Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment (SBO.AV), Oberbank (OBS.AV), EVN (EVN.AV), UNIQA Insurance (UQA.AV)
Nordics: SalMar (SALM.NO), Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO), Crayon Group (CRAYN.NO), Froy (FROY.NO), Klaveness Combination Carriers (KCC.NO), Panoro Energy (PEN.NO), ECIT (ECIT.NO), SmartCraft (SMCRT.NO), Kid (KID.NO), SATS (SATS.NO), Odfjell Technology Ltd. (OTL.NO), Solstad Offshore (SOFF.NO), Integrated Wind Solutions (IWS.NO), Atlantic Sapphire (ASA.NO), Zalaris (ZAL.NO), Surgical Science Sweden (SUS.SS), Elekta (EKTA.B.SS), Hufvudstaden (HUFV.A.SS), Green Landscaping (GREEN.SS), Genovis (GENO.SS), Pagero Group (PAGERO.SS), Vicore Pharma (VICO.SS), Implantica (IMP.A.SS), Thunderful (THUNDR.SS), ALK-Abello (ALK.B.DC), Columbus (COLUM.DC), Gyldendal (GYLD.A.DC), Fynske Bank (FYNBK.DC), Nanoform Finland (NANOFH.FH), Keskisuomalainen (KSLAV.FH)
UK: Harbour Energy (HBR.LN), CRH (CRH.LN), Hays (HAS.LN), Hunting (HTG.LN), Benchmark (BMK.LN), Macfarlane (MACF.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Aug Flash Manufacturing PMI
Eurozone43.7 vs consensus 42.6 and prior 42.7
UK 42.5 vs consensus 45.0 and prior 45.3
France 46.4 vs consensus 45.0 and prior 45.1
Germany 39.1 vs consensus 38.7 and prior 38.8
Aug Flash Services PMI
Eurozone 48.3 vs consensus 50.5 and prior 50.9
UK 48.7 vs consensus 51.0 and prior 51.5
France 46.7 vs consensus 47.5 and prior 47.1
Germany 47.3 vs consensus 51.5 and prior 52.3
Eurozone Aug Flash Consumer Confidence (16.0) vs consensus (14.3) and prior (15.1)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 23): ($0.70) or (0.88%) to $78.94
€-$ +0.0008 or +0.07% to 1.0856
£-$ (0.0022) or (0.17%) to 1.2710
€-£ +0.0023 to 0.8543
S&P 500 +0.89%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (1.76%)
DAX: +12.96%
CAC: +11.94%
MIB: +19.20%
Stoxx 600: +6.72%
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