Aug 24 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed. Netherlands (0.9%), Finland and Germany both (0.6%) lead underperformers, whilst Portugal +0.7%, Greece, Norway, Spain and the UK +0.2% lead outperformers.
Risk appetite supported by yesterday's big drop in bond yields after weak PMI data, although US labour data today has fueled a partial recovery. Blowout results from NVDA also aiding. Markets now await the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. No shortage of discussion in sell-side previews and press over how Powell will likely continue to lean hawkish, suggesting event may be somewhat de-risked. ECB President Lagarde will also feature at the event. Some thoughts after EU data Wednesday that ECB could pause in September.
Nvidia helped push AI narrative back into focus. Earnings came in well above expectations. Optimism fueled further by bullish Q3 revenue guidance and $25B buyback. Takeaways highlighted AI as the key underlying driver, consistent with earlier previews. Analysts estimate tightness in AI chip market likely to persist over the next several quarters.
On the macro-calendar, the latest French business climate survey deteriorated in August with index at 99, moving below long-term average 100 and lowest level since April 2021. Survey largely corroborates findings of forward-looking PMI published Wednesday, which showed manufacturing remained deep in contractionary territory and services sector downturn accelerating further to leave composite PMI unchanged at 46.6. Insee also noted deterioration in both sectors of the economy. Manufacturing weakness due to balance of opinion on orders books and past production. Services sector sentiment downturn due to shift in general outlook and perception of past activity. As a result of weakness in activity, employment climate has deteriorated sharply with a five point drop from prior survey to 101, leaving reading just above long-term term average and at lowest level since April 2021. There are also signs of further retreat in inflationary pressure with balance of opinion on prices down for fifth month from peak in March 2023. Reflects growing view that as economy slows inflation will gradually return to ECB's target.
On the reporting front, Active Biotech (ACTI.SS) reports Q2 EPS (SEK0.04) vs year-ago (SEK0.07). Hunting (HTG.LN) reports H1 EPS 9.6c vs year-ago (0.5c). Orthex (ORTHEX.FH) reports Q2 EPS €0.06 vs year-ago (€0.03). Hays (HAS.LN) reports FY EPS 8.52p vs consensus 8.28p; announces 2.24p/share special dividend; expects Group net fees will decline y/y in H1 FY24. UNIQA Insurance Group (UQA.AV) reports H1 net income €172.4M, +104% vs year-ago €84.6M. Kudelski (KUD.SW) reports H1 net income ($28.5M) vs year-ago ($18.6M); confirms original FY23 EBITDA guidance in range $40M-$60M. Columbus (COLUM.DC) reports Q2 EPS (DKK0.03) vs year-ago DKK0.01; reaffirms FY guidance. In M&A news, ENGIE (ENGI.FP) announces acquisition of Broad Reach Power in the United States; price not disclosed whilst GAM Holding (GAM.SW) entered into constructive and productive discussions with Newgame.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 21-Aug to 25-Aug attached), Eurocommercial Properties (ECMPA.NA), Sif Holding (SIFG.NA), BKS Bank (BKS.AV), AF Gruppen (AFG.NO), Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO), Siem Offshore (SIOFF.NO), MT Hojgaard Holding (MTHH.DC), Hofseth Biocare (HBC.NO), Anora (ANORA.FH), RaySearch Laboratories (RAY.B.SS), Eolus Vind (EOLU.B.SS), and Infant Bacterial Therapeutics (IBT.B.SS) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany Q2 final GDP, Aug business climate - Ifo, France Aug consumer confidence, Sweden Jul unemployment rate, PPI, Spain Jul PPI, UK Aug consumer confidence - GfK
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Financial Svcs +0.54%, Utilities +0.39%, Energy+0.38%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.37%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.35%, Chemicals +0.34%, Banks +0.20%, Real Estate (0.05%), Media (0.08%),
Underperformers:
Technology (2.29%), Basic Resources (1.08%), Travel & Leisure (0.80%), Autos & Parts (0.80%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.66%), Construct & Mtls (0.65%), Consumer Products and Services (0.56%), Health Care (0.53%), Retail (0.53%), Telecom (0.48%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Ukraine/Russia
EU
Hungary wants EU to extend Ukrainian grains import ban beyond Sept 15 - Reuters
UK
Corporate pension buyouts reach record volumes in US and UK - FT
UK Rally Boosted by Traders Scaling Back BOE Rate-Hike Bets: Markets Today - Bloomberg
UK retail sales fall at fastest pace in more than two years, says CBI - The Times
Labour party membership fell by almost 25,000 in 2022, while its income rose, figures show - The Guardian
France
France to Toughen Controls on Foreign Investment in Local Firms - Bloomberg
Germany
Germany's Baerbock decries weak impact of Russia sanctions - DW
Turkey
Sweden
Sweden Gives 'Bleak' Forecast for Economy Strained by Inflation - Bloomberg
Italy
Employment contracts are growing, in 5 months there are 800 thousand more - Ansa
Greece
Eurozone woes help Greek bonds - Ekathimerini
Foreign investors drive property boom - Ekathimerini
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+12.8% GENO.SS (Genovis SEK49.00, +5.55) -- Q2 earnings
+10.3% GAM.SW (Gam Holding CHF0.50, +0.05) -- enters into constructive and productive discussions with Newgame; Liontrust update
+9.9% HOCN.SW (HOCHDORF Holding CHF24.40, +2.20) -- H1 earnings
+9.5% FRU.GR (Multitude €3.46, +0.30) -- H1 earnings
+7.1% 2GB.GR (2G Energy €24.05, +1.60) -- H1 revenue
+7.0% ALK.B.DC (ALK-Abello DKK77.55, +5.05) -- Q2 earnings
+6.0% SVIK.SS (Studsvik SEK109.80, +6.20) -- signs MoU with Kärnfull Next
+4.9% KID.NO (Kid ASA NOK82.00, +3.80) -- Q2 earnings
+3.6% SALM.NO (Salmar NOK497.00, +17.30) -- Q2 earnings
+3.2% NFN.GR (NFON €7.04, +0.22) -- Q2 earnings
+2.7% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF21.89, +0.57) -- Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and UBS agree $499M settlement of antitrust lawsuit - Bloomberg
+2.5% NOLA.B.SS (Nolato SEK42.94, +1.06) -- integrated solutions business area concentrates its Chinese operations
+1.8% SY1.GR (Symrise €92.48, +1.60) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+1.6% RBREW.DC (Royal Unibrew DKK585.80, +9.20) -- Handelsbanken upgrade
Trading Lower:
-17.8% CRAYN.NO (Crayon Group Holding NOK84.05, -18.15) -- Q2 earnings; appoints new CFO
-15.3% CRNA.NO (Circio Holding NOK0.53, -0.10) -- H1 earnings; requests Atlas Special Opportunities to subscribe and pay for the second tranche of convertible bonds
-13.8% OSP2.GR (USU Software €18.10, -2.90) -- prelim Q2 earnings
-11.1% BMK.LN (Benchmark Holdings £0.36, -0.05) -- Q3 earnings
-8.1% EVE.SW (Evolva Holding CHF3.40, -0.30) -- H1 earnings
-7.8% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle NOK9.43, -0.80) -- Q2 earnings
-7.3% MITRA.BB (Mithra Pharmaceuticals €2.24, -0.18) -- to raise €20M in gross proceeds via private placement of 10M new ordinary shares
-6.9% MDXH.BB (MDxHealth €0.33, -0.02) -- H1 earnings
-6.8% TESB.BB (Tessenderlo Group €27.95, -2.05) -- H1 earnings
-6.8% VLK.NA (Van Lanschot Kempen €27.45, -2.00) -- H1 earnings
-5.5% HTG.LN (Hunting £2.41, -0.14) -- H1 earnings; commences a further restructuring of its operating footprint, in addition to disposing of its legacy non-core E&P assets
-5.5% VICO.SS (Vicore Pharma Holding SEK14.72, -0.86) -- Q2 earnings
-5.4% RCN.LN (Redcentric £1.23, -0.07) -- prelim FY earnings
-3.3% MDM.FP (Maisons du Monde €8.61, -0.30) -- CFO steps down
-3.0% GLPG.NA (Galapagos €34.43, -1.05) -- Citi downgrade
-2.6% SPE.LN (Sopheon £5.70, -0.15) -- H1 earnings
-2.3% ZAL.NO (Zalaris NOK43.00, -1.00) -- Q2 earnings
-1.8% SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding CHF18.47, -0.33) -- H1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Eurocommercial Properties (ECMPA.NA), Sif Holding (SIFG.NA)
DACH: BKS Bank (BKS.AV)
Nordics: AF Gruppen (AFG.NO), Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO), Siem Offshore (SIOFF.NO), MT Hojgaard Holding (MTHH.DC), Hofseth Biocare (HBC.NO), Anora (ANORA.FH), RaySearch Laboratories (RAY.B.SS), Eolus Vind (EOLU.B.SS), Infant Bacterial Therapeutics (IBT.B.SS)
Data:
Economics:
Finland Jul PPI (10.0%) y/y vs consensus (10.8%) and prior (9.5%)
Norway Jul Unemployment Rate 3.5% vs consensus 3.5% and prior 3.4%
France Aug Business Survey 96 vs consensus 99 and prior revised 101 from 100
UK Aug CBI Distributive Trades (44) vs consensus (32) and prior (25)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 23): ($0.24) or (0.30%) to $78.65
€-$ (0.0037) or (0.34%) to 1.0829
£-$ (0.0092) or (0.72%) to 1.2632
€-£ +0.0035 to 0.8572
S&P 500 (0.58%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (1.52%)
DAX: +12.30%
CAC: +11.54%
MIB: +18.48%
Stoxx 600: +6.34%
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