Aug 25 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed to higher with pan-European indices reversing earlier gains. Denmark (0.7%), Switzerland (0.3%), Netherlands (0.2%) were among the leading underperformers. Portugal +1.0% Italy +0.6%, Greece +0.3% led outperformers.
Central bank narrative continued with more commentary from ECB officials. ECB's Nagel, a hawk, wants further hikes, and doesn't see Germany falling into recession. However, Portugal central bank chief Centeno, a dove, said downside risks that the ECB identified in June have materialized, and new forecasts ahead of the September meeting must also be taken into consideration. Croatian central bank chief Vujcic noted that economic slowdown isn't impacting inflation, so further information is required before deciding on rates in September. Bundesbank chief Nagel pushed back against market expectations for September rate hike pause, stating he is not convinced inflation is under control enough and more data needed.
Meanwhile, Powell's key speech got underway from the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell said the Fed is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until it is confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward its objective.
From a macro calendar perspective in Europe, German Q2 GDP dipped (0.2%) y/y, unchanged from preliminary release. Also German confidence falls with Ifo business climate survey at 85.7 in August vs consensus 86.7 and prior 87.4 revised from 87.3. In the UK, GfK consumer confidence jumped five points in August to (25) vs (29) expected and prior's month low of (30). The improvement in sentiment came amid more optimism surrounding personal finances and after inflation showed further easing (Times).
In corporate news, Hafnia (HAFNI.NO) reported Q2 earnings ahead of FactSet consensus across all main metrics. AF Gruppen (AFG.NO) posted Q2 weak earnings. Belysse Group (BELYS.BB) confirmed Q2/H1 earnings as per 20-Jul update.
In the UK, CMC Markets (CMCX.LN) cut FY2024 net operating income guidance between £250M-£280M. Company said subdued market conditions have continued through August with trading and investing net revenues trending 20% lower y/y; DWF Group (DWF.LN) posted FY adjusted EPS 10.2p vs FactSet 12.0p and said no final dividend has yet been declared given the proposed acquisition of DWF Group by Inflexion
In other corporate developments, Oncopeptides (ONCO.SS) shares jumped to ~10% after company announced information regarding Pepaxto's appeal of U.S. withdrawal published; Novartis (NOVN.SW) Sandoz received FDA approval for Tyruko (natalizumab-sztn), first and only FDA-approved biosimilar for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis; LM Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS) renewed its global patent license agreement with Huawei.
In M&As, Rolex to acquire watch retailer Bucherer, terms not disclosed. On the speculation front, Octopus Energy seen as leading contender to acquire Shell's energy retail business in the UK, Sky News reported.
The week ahead sees Chancellor Scholz hosts a two-day closed cabinet meeting and from across the region, Aug manufacturing PMIs, Q2 final GDPs and Aug preliminary CPIs, as well as earnings from bioMerieux (BIM.FP), Bunzl (BNZL.LN), Delivery Hero (DHER.GR), Pernod Ricard (RI.FP), Prudential (PRU.LN) and UBS Group (UBSG.SW)
Of note, Markets are closed in UK on Mon (late summer Bank Holiday) and Turkey on Wed (Victory Day).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Utilities +0.62%, Oil & Gas +0.51%, Food & Beverage +0.46%, Retail +0.29%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.18%, Autos & Parts +0.17%, Media +0.15%, Construct & Mtls +0.13%, Chemicals +0.05%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.03%,
Underperformers
Financial Svcs (0.64%), Technology (0.62%), Health Care (0.31%), Real Estate(0.16%), Travel & Leisure (0.10%), Banks (0.09%), Insurance (0.08%), Basic Resources (0.02%), Telecom (0.01%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Central banks
WHO
Highly mutated COVID variant found in new countries but pandemic in 'a different phase' - Reuters
UK
France
Netherlands
Ireland
Germany
Gloomy Ifo fuels fears of second German recession in a year - Reuters
Russia
Putin orders all mercenaries to pledge allegiance to Russia - Telegraph
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+14.4% EOLU.B.SS (Eolus Vind SEK72.90, +9.15) -- Q2 earnings
+9.4% ONCO.SS (Oncopeptides SEK7.61, +0.65) -- announces information regarding Pepaxto's appeal of U.S. withdrawal published
+6.8% WHATS.BB (What's Cooking Group €78.00, +5.00) -- H1 earnings
+6.7% THAG.SW (Talenthouse CHF0.00, -0.00) -- announces Court of Zug approves provisional debt-restructuring moratorium as part of the restructuring process
+5.7% ABG.NO (ABG Sundal Collier Holding NOK5.35, +0.29) -- issues result of offer to buy back shares
+5.6% HBC.NO (Hofseth BioCare NOK3.20, +0.17) -- Q2 earnings
+5.4% AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings £3.38, +0.17) -- Jefferies upgrade
+5.3% VETN.SW (Vetropack Holding CHF44.05, +2.20) -- H1 earnings
+4.9% CYAD.BB (Celyad Oncology €0.56, +0.03) -- receives €9.8M in private placement commitments at €0.52/sh
+4.5% TOP.DC (Topdanmark DKK323.00, +14.00) -- Danske Bank upgrade
+3.1% DEC.FP (JCDecaux €16.76, +0.51) -- transferred buy at Deutsche Bank
+2.7% AUS.GR (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik €33.20, +0.86) -- Jefferies upgrade
+1.3% PNE3.GR (PNE €12.60, +0.16) -- new CFO
Notable Decliners
-20.1% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £5.54, -1.40) -- responds to Rolex acquisition of Bucherer; Peel Hunt and HSBC downgrade
-9.0% CMCX.LN (CMC Markets £1.11, -0.11) -- FY trading update
-8.0% SNH.GR (Steinhoff International Holdings €0.00, -0.00) -- 3M trading update
-7.4% EXM.BB (Exmar NV €11.08, -0.88) -- Saverex NV announces start of the second acceptance period in connection with public takeover bid on company
-6.4% BELYS.BB (Belysse Group €0.91, -0.06) -- confirms Q2/H1 earnings
-6.0% SCST.SS (Scandi Standard SEK49.75, -3.15) -- Danske Bank and Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
EU companies reporting on Monday:
Earnings: Lån & Spar Bank (LASP.DC), thyssenkrupp Nucera (NCH2.GR)
Trading Update: Freelance.com (ALFRE.FP)
Data:
Economics:
UK Aug Gfk Consumer Confidence (25) vs consensus (29) and prior (30) - release
Germany
Q2 GDP (0.2%) y/y vs preliminary (0.2%); 0.0% q/q vs preliminary 0.0%
Aug Ifo survey
Business Climate 85.7 vs consensus 86.7 and prior revised 87.4 from 87.3
Current Conditions 89.0 vs consensus 90.0 and prior revised 91.4 from 91.3
Expectations 82.6 vs consensus 83.8 and prior revised 83.6 from 83.5
Sweden
Jul PPI (2.1%) y/y vs consensus (6.0%) and prior (3.1%)
Jul Unemployment Rate 6.2% vs consensus 7.8% and prior 9.2%
Spain Jul PPI (8.4%) y/y vs consensus (10.1%) and prior (8.1%)
Markets:
€-$ (0.0025) or (0.23%) to 1.0786
£-$ (0.0030) or (0.24%) to 1.2571
€-£ (0.0001) to 0.8579
S&P 500 +0.11%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (1.44%)
DAX: +12.32%
CAC: +11.74%
MIB: +19.03%
Stoxx 600: +6.28%
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