Aug 28 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher, near best levels, after closing in positive territory for the first time in four weeks on Friday. UK markets were closed for bank holiday and come back online tomorrow. Technology, Construction/Materials and Industrial Goods&Services outperformed. Personal Care, Utilities and Media lagged.
Markets unfazed by somewhat hawkish speeches by Fed governor Powell and ECB President Lagarde at Jackson Hole. View is that both central bankers did not provide much new information. It is clear they are data-dependent and will take a holistic approach when looking at data to judge if more tightening is necessary. Markets pricing in almost two-thirds probability of November rate hike from the Fed. Lagarde said rates will move as high as necessary to curb inflation. ECB's Nagel cautioned against becoming a buyer of last resort. ECB's Kazaks said core inflation still elevated. ECB's Holzmann expects a rate hike in September barring surprises. BoE's Broadbent said rates may have to stay high for some time yet. On the macro front, Eurozone money supply was lower than expected, pointing to contracting economic activity ahead.
Germany's ruling Social Democratic Party will vote on a proposal for lower limits on rent increases as a way to tackle inflation. Draft suggests rents in densely populated residential areas shouldn't rise by more than 6% over three years, and may not exceed local comparative rent.
Dutch TTF gas prices slightly higher in European trade around €35/MWh, well off last week's low at ~€30MWh, as seasonal maintenance saw Norwegian flows decline to lowest level in over a year (Bloomberg)
Macroeconomic releases included Eurozone July M3 posting the first negative reading for money growth at (0.4%) y/y, pointing to weaker economic conditions ahead. Lending for house purchase dropped at a faster pace, partly explaining home prices' decline in several countries including Germany. Elsewhere, Denmark Jul retail sales fell (5.4%) y/y and Norway Jul Retail Sales (sa) was down (0.8%) m/m vs consensus +0.5%.
Some focus on UK travel as air traffic controllers across the UK experienced technical fault causing flight cancellations. The fault has now been fixed but disruption continues.
In corporate news, thyssenkrupp nucera (NCH2.GR) reported Q3 EPS €0.06 vs year-ago €0.03 and saying it expects continued strong FY sales growth. BW Offshore (BWO.NO) closed (12.7%) lower on reporting Q2 EPS $0.07 vs FactSet $0.10. Flow Traders (FLOW.NA) announced the resignation of Folkert Joling as Chief whilst Green Hydrogen Systems (GREENH.DC) CEO Sebastian Koks Andreassen resigned.
In M&A news, Sandoz (NOVN.SW) completed the acquisition of Mycamine from Astellas; deal was announced 23-Jan. Svenska Cellulosa (SCA.B.SS) will acquire the remaining 50% in Gällö Timber AB from Persson Invest AB for an undisclosed sum whilst Kathimerini reports HELLENiQ Energy (ELPE.GA) may sell its 35% stake in DEPA Commercial to Greek state.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Technology +1.73%, Construct & Mtls +1.32%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.25%, Consumer Products and Services +1.20%, Banks +1.12%, Chemicals +0.98%, Travel & Leisure +0.96%, Energy+0.87%
Underperformers:
Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.21%, Utilities +0.23%, Media +0.35%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.36%, Basic Resources +0.38%, Health Care +0.56%, Insurance +0.63%, Retail +0.64%, Real Estate +0.65%, Autos & Parts +0.77%, Financial Svcs +0.84%
Macro:
Policymakers at Jackson Hole suggest there is no existing playbook for current challenges - FT
Central banks:
ECB's Nagel says rates may need to remain at peak for a while - Reuters
ECB's Holzmann sees case for hike in September, barring surprises - Bloomberg
ECB's Lagarde says interest rates to stay high as long as needed to defeat inflation but avoids guidance on September decision - WP, Bloomberg, FT
ECB's Kazaks said it may be too early to pause rate hikes - Reuters
BoE's Broadbent said rates may have to stay high for some time yet - Bloomberg
Austria central bank chief Holzmann suggests borrowers should undergo training on financial risks before accessing credit - DiePresse
EU:
Germany:
Italy:
Stabilisation of tax wedge cut budget priority says Tajani - ansa
UK:
Britain's trade deal with India at risk amid row over cheap generic drugs - Telegraph, Guardian
Soaring costs put farmers on the front line of a food crisis - London Times
UK's Dorries formally resigns as MP with blistering attack on Sunak - politico
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+12.2% NNIT.DC (NNIT DKK84.40, +9.20) -- prelim Q2 earnings; upgrades FY outlook
+10.1% EOLU.B.SS (Eolus Vind SEK80.35, +7.35) -- follow-through on earnings
+5.3% 2GB.GR (2G Energy €24.80, +1.25) -- acquisition
+4.7% NRC.NO (NRC Group NOK10.80, +0.48) -- contract
+4.6% CADLR.NO (Cadeler NOK39.30, +1.72) -- initiated buy at Carnegie Securities
+3.5% PIERCE.SS (Pierce Group SEK6.52, +0.22) -- Nordea upgrade
+3.2% BCART.BB (Biocartis Group €0.34, +0.01) -- appoints new Medical Advisory board
+2.6% ELPE.GA (HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings €8.20, +0.21) -- HELLENiQ Energy may sell its 35% stake in DEPA Commercial to Greek state - Kathimerini
+2.6% ASM.NA (ASM International €434.00, +11.05) -- net-zero targets validated by SBTi
+2.4% VLA.FP (Valneva €6.38, +0.15) -- positive initial Phase 3 safety data
+2.0% ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris €121.40, +2.40) -- CIC Market Solutions upgrade
+1.6% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF21.98, +0.35) -- Credit Suisse incurred CHF3.5B loss in Q2 - SonntagsZeitung, citing sources
+1.3% ALO.FP (Alstom €25.66, +0.34) -- selected to deliver Dominican Republic's first monorail system
+1.3% PBB.GR (Deutsche Pfandbriefbank €7.19, +0.09) -- initiated buy at Warburg Research
+1.1% NCH2.GR (thyssenkrupp nucera €21.60, +0.24) -- Q3 earnings
Notable Decliners
-12.7% BWO.NO (BW Offshore NOK25.24, -3.68) -- Q2 earnings
-7.2% JIN.NO (Jinhui Shipping & Transportation NOK5.92, -0.46) -- Q2 earnings
-3.8% GREENH.DC (Green Hydrogen Systems DKK8.16, -0.32) -- CEO resigns
-3.5% AOX.GR (Alstria €4.78, -0.18) -- Germany's ruling party plans to curb rent increases - FT
-2.4% BBN.SW (Bellevue Group CHF24.80, -0.60) -- management change
-1.8% AIFORIA.FH (Aiforia Technologies €4.46, -0.08) -- Inderes downgrade
-1.6% KIN.BB (Kinepolis Group €43.40, -0.70) -- Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $92.8M, +78% y/y - Box Office Mojo
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: NN Group (NN.NA), DEME Group (DEME.BB), Unifiedpost Group (UPG.BB)
DACHs: PORR (POS.AV), Flughafen Zurich (FHZN.SW), TX Group (TXGN.SW), Evotec (EVT.GR), Dermapharm (DMP.GR), ADLER Real Estate (ADL.GR), GK Software (GKS.GR), ADLER Group (ADJ.GR)
Nordics: LE Lundbergforetagen (LUND.B.SS), Re:NewCell (RENEW.SS), Viva Wine (VIVA.SS), Eniro Group (ENRO.SS), Mendus (IMMU.SS), Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STG.DC), RTX (RTX.DC), Cadeler (CADLR.NO), MasOval (MAS.NO), RC Group (NRC.NO), Saga Pure (SAGA.NO), Rana Gruber (RANA.NO)
Southern Europe: Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM), Italian Exhibition Group (IEG.IM)
UK/Ireland: Bunzl (BNZL.LN), Faron Pharmaceuticals (FARN.LN), Argo Blockchain (ARB.LN), Dalata Hotel Group (DHG.ID)
Trading Update: Greenyard (GREEN.BB)
Traffic: VINCI (DG.FP)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Jul M3 Money Supply (0.4%) vs consensus 0.0% and prior +0.6%
Jul Retail Sales
Denmark (5.4%) y/y vs prior revised to +0.9% from prior +2.0%
Norway (sa) (0.8%) m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior revised to +0.2% from +0.3%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 23): +$0.46 or +0.58% to $80.29
€-$ +0.0013 or +0.12% to 1.0810
£-$ +0.0004 or +0.03% to 1.2591
€-£ +0.0007 to 0.8587
S&P 500 +0.43%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (1.52%)
DAX: +13.42%
CAC: +13.14%
MIB: +20.41%
Stoxx 600: +7.15%
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