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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.18%, Hang Seng +1.95%, Shanghai Composite +1.20% as of 04:10 ET

Aug 29 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended higher across the region Tuesday. Greater China markets led by Hong Kong's three high-growth sectors, mainland benchmarks led by technology. Gains also for Seoul and Taipei, Australian stocks led by resources. Southeast Asia all well bid, India extending morning gains. Japan closed higher but well off peaks of the day. US futures higher, Europe opened with gains. US dollar lower, gains for AUD while yen and yuan are flat. Treasury yield curve steepening slightly, JGB yields lower, China's 10Y yield rose off 3Y lows. Crude oil and precious metals a little higher, industrial metals mixed.

    • Asia markets ticked higher again Tuesday as overnight signals from the US and Europe remained strong amid consensus that the central bank gathering last week was broadly in line with expectations, and certainly did not see the hawkish language of last year. Focus now on US JOLTS jobs report today and NFPs Friday, as well as the ISM/PMIs globally later this week too. Europe will also see inflation data that could determine the ECB's next move.

    • In Asia developments today, Beijing doubled down on efforts to support capital markets by announcing cuts to stamp duties on stock trades and a tightening of IPO rules to increase market liquidity. But analysts' economic growth forecasts continue to tumble with Beijing's 5% GDP growth target considered increasingly unrealistic absent aggressive stimulus. But that possibility is considered remote; high local government debt, contagion risks from property's problems, and consumer reticence to spend also prompting talk of a prolonged period of stagnation. Regional economic data today scant although Japan's unemployment unexpectedly rose to 2.7%, and, in trade-orientated Vietnam, exports sank again but manufacturing output rose.

    • Toyota Motor (7203.JP) halted production 25 production lines in 12 out of 14 plants because of a systems glitch but denied it was a cyberattack. Country Garden (2007.HK) proposed a grace period of 40 calendar days for a maturing yuan bond, holders to vote on 31-Aug. Qantas Airways (QAN.AU) CEO under pressure on company's poor customer service, inflated air fares just as the Australia government questioned over decision to block Qatar Airways from 28 weekly flights. Star Entertainment (SGR.AU) is no longer looking to sell its flagship Sydney casino, saying the business is in a more viable position than previously.

  • Digest:

    • China GDP growth forecast downgrades continue, housing market outlook worsens:

      • Bloomberg consensus forecast for 2023 GDP growth shaved again to 5.1% from prior 5.2%, while 2024 revised down to 4.5% from 4.8%. Noted annual projections partly reflect softer Q3 growth at 4.4% y/y from 4.6%. Cited Continuum Economics attributing up to 30% probability of a hard landing scenario this year. All economists surveyed trimmed forecasts for major indicators. 2023 CPI inflation downgraded to 0.7% from 0.9%. PPI declines seen strengthening to 3% from 2.7%. Trade forecasts also downgraded with exports down 3% (vs prior 2.3%) and imports down 5.6% (vs 2.8%). Policy support expected to remain moderate, reaffirming forecasts for a 25 bp RRR cut in Q3, followed by 10 bp easing in 1y MLF and 5y LPR in Q4. China Securites Journal suggested an RRR cut may be expedited by relative tightness in money market rates, noting 1d and 7d repo rates rose more than 20 bp Monday following a recent inversion between them. Property market remains a key overhang as a Reuters poll showed house prices projected to average flat in 2023 (vs prior consensus 1.4% in May). Observers skeptical of a near term turnaround in the market despite recent support measures.

    • China policy announcement effects suffering diminishing returns:

      • Bloomberg reported late Monday that Chinese authorities asked some mutual funds to avoid selling equities on a net basis for a day via window guidance issued by stock exchanges. Followed earlier announcements of lower stamp duties and minimum margin ratio on security transactions. Separately, Bloomberg discussed Monday's stock market price action as China benchmarks unwound most of their opening gains by the close. Market fade coincided with foreign net selling of $1.1B on Stock Connect, taking MTD outflows to over $11B on track for a record. Cited analyst remarks reaffirming their view that latest policy support measures are still insufficient to promote a meaningful turnaround. Article observed announcement effects from policy support becoming increasingly muted, recalling Friday's property-related measures supported CSI 300 for only about 10 minutes before selling resumed. Prior reduction in stamp duty in 2008 triggered a 9.3% rally in Shanghai Composite Index the following session, though presaged major stimulus. Still, direct policy responses to support the equity market seen indicative of elevated urgency, auguring for more follow-through going forward. State Council pledged to step up efforts to effectively implement its proactive fiscal policy with the next focus on expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence and preventing risks (Xinhua).

    • Mainland China appetite for offshore investments adds to outflow pressures:

      • Reuters discussed China's growing demand for offshore exposure as investors diversify from domestic market weakness. Article noted QDII quota of around $165.5B is almost used up and fund managers say there is demand for more. According to Morningstar, a record 38 QDII funds had been launched this year through 17-Aug, outpacing the 31 funds launched in 2022. Analysts say domestic investors no longer content with just Hong Kong equities and seeking broader access to US, Japan, and emerging markets such as Vietnam and India as the Chinese economy stumbles. However, asset managers are finding SAFE is slow in approving further increases in the QDII quota, having already added $5.8B over two rounds this year. Some thoughts this ties in with policy efforts to limit outflows in an effort to stabilize yuan. China outflows have continued all year through QDII, Stock Connect and Bond Connect links with Hong Kong, complicating authorities' efforts to stabilize the yuan and revive confidence.

    • Larger local government bonds issuance leads to tighter interbank liquidity in China:

      • China money market interest rates rose despite recent PBOC's unexpected rate cuts while funding situation tightens. China Securities Journal quoted several experts saying it is temporary situation which may be related to sharp increase in local government bonds issuance. In interbank market DR001 and DR007 were at 1.91% and 2.09% on 28-Aug respectively, 21 and 27 bp higher than 14-Aug. Noted PBOC cut 7D reverse repo rate by 10 bp to 1.80% on 15-Aug. Local government bonds issuance at CNY1.3T in August versus CNY619B in July, which leads to tighter liquidity. Situation might continue in September together with end-of-quarter effects and holidays, which might prompt PBOC to respond with RRR cut to maintain "reasonable and appropriate" liquidity. Minsheng Bank chief economist Wen Bin expected RRR cut in Q4 also did not rule out another rate cut within 2023, as well as higher possibility of guidance to lower bank deposit rates.

    • US and China to broaden talks to reduce tensions as Raimondo visits Beijing:

      • US and China agreed to hold regular talks about commercial issues and restrictions on access to advanced technology during Commerce Secretary Raimondo's visit to Beijing (NY Times). Two dialogues would be created. One would be a working group that includes government and private sector representatives focusing on commercial issues. The other would be a government information exchange on export control issues. Raimondo said Washington believed strong Chinese economy a good thing while stressing national security as a clear red line, adding vast majority of bilateral trade and investment does not involve national security concerns (FT). China's commerce minister Wang Wentao expressed concerns about US tariffs on Chinese goods, sanctions on Chinese companies and Washington's semiconductor policy (MofCom). Meanwhile Micron (MU) appointed a policy veteran to mend China ties as some expected Raimondo's trip could lead to easing of tensions (SCMP) and Boeing (BA) may resume delivery of 737 MAX jets to China for first time since 2019 (SCMP).

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +19.3% 1357.HK (Meitu Inc): reports H1 adjusted net income CNY151.3M vs guidance CNY140-155M, revenue CNY1.26B vs year-ago CNY971.2M

      • +17.0% 1958.HK (BAIC Motor): reports H1 net income attributable CNY2.85B vs year-ago CNY2.16B

      • +7.1% 13.HK (Hutchmed): receives Breakthrough Therapy Designation from China NMPA for savolitinib in gastric cancer

      • +3.4% A50.SP (Thomson Medical Group): reports FY revenue SG$355.8M vs year-ago SG$333.7M

      • +2.0% 20.HK (SenseTime Group): reports H1 non-IFRS adjusted EBITDA (CNY2.03B) vs year-ago (CNY2.32B)

      • +0.5% 636.HK (Kerry Logistics Network): reports H1 net income attributable HK$367.6M vs year-ago HK$2.38B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -4.0% 2285.HK (Chervon Holdings): reports H1 adjusted net income $49.5M vs year-ago $73.6M

      • -0.5% 9433.JP (KDDI Corp): Toyota Motor completes sell of 64.1M shares in KDDI Corp at ¥3,900/share

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan July

        • Unemployment rate 2.7% vs consensus 2.5% vs consensus and 2.5% in prior month

          • Job offers to applicants ratio 1.29 vs consensus 1.30 and 1.30 in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 56.98 or +0.18% to 32226.97

      • Hang Seng: 353.29 or +1.95% to 18484.03

      • Shanghai Composite: 37.25 or +1.20% to 3135.89

      • Shenzhen Composite: 51.13 or +2.69% to 1951.63

      • ASX200: 50.70 or +0.71% to 7210.50

      • KOSPI: 8.75 or +0.34% to 2552.16

      • SENSEX: 130.56 or +0.20% to 65127.16

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.10) or (0.07%) to 146.4390

      • $-KRW: (2.72) or (0.21%) to 1321.4900

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.18% to 0.6436

      • $-INR: (0.08) or (0.09%) to 82.6720

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 7.2889

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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