Sep 05 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed. Greece +0.7%, Norway +0.5%, Sweden +0.4% led outperformers whilst Ireland (1.0%), Switzerland (0.8%), Portugal (0.6%) led underperformers.
ECB officials did not provide much guidance ahead of next week's policy decision. Chief economist Lanes said the ECB expects core inflation to decline over the autumn, but offered no clues on whether he would prefer to pause at the upcoming policy decision. ECB survey showed consumer inflation expectations edged up in July.
In geopolitical developments, Russian President Putin told Turkey Erdogan it was ready to restart grain deal if sanctions on agricultural exports relaxed.
From a macro calendar perspective, services PMI dominated. Germany came in line preliminary release whilst Eurozone and France missed. UK final services PMI was revised up from 48.7 to 49.5 but still recorded the weakest reading since January and compared with July's 51.5 outturn. Spain and Italy both came in below consensus. Elsewhere, Eurozone PPI fell as expected.
In corporate news, Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW) posted H1 net income CHF551M vs consensus CHF496M and confirmed FY23 guidance. Also in Switzerland, Accelleron Industries (ACLN.SW) H1 net income $46.9M vs year-ago $67.2M; BKW AG (BKW.SW) reported H1 net income CHF340M vs year-ago CHF71M and raised FY EBIT guidance to CHF600 to 650M vs FactSet CHF582.1M.
In the UK, Ashtead Group (AHT.LN) posted Q1 adj EPS, revenue, EBITDA, adj PBT ahead of consensus and confirmed FY guidance. Out of the Nordics, Sectra (SECT.B.SS) released Q1 earnings. In Italy, GVS SpA (GVS.IM) reported H1 numbers, confirmed FY23 guidance for adj EBITDA and net debt and adjusted FY23 guidance downward.
In other corporate developments, Air France SA (AF.FP) and Airbus SAS (AIR.FP) entered into exclusive negotiations to establish JV for the provision of Airbus A350 component maintenance services.
On M&A front, B&M European Value Retail confirmed agreement with joint administrators of Wilko Limited to acquire up to 51 stores. Also, Daniel Kretinsky to take control of Casino next March, Les Echos reported.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Oil & Gas +1.18%, Autos & Parts +1.02%, Financial Svcs +0.54%, Telecom +0.48%, Media +0.41%, Technology +0.13%, Insurance +0.12%, Health Care (0.15%),
Underperformers
Chemicals (1.17%), Construct & Mtls (1.01%), Utilities (0.93%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.91%), Food & Beverage (0.70%), Basic Resources (0.54%), Retail (0.42%), Travel & Leisure (0.41%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.40%), Banks (0.39%), Real Estate(0.27%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
ECB
Philip Lane interview with The Currency - release
UK
Rishi Sunak to make it easier for onshore wind farms to be approved - BBC
UK Aug LFL retail sales monitor +4.3% vs consensus +2.0% and prior +1.8%; total sales +4.1% vs year-ago +1.5% - BRC; KPMG commentary
UK Aug consumer card spending +2.8% y/y vs prior +4.0% - Barclays
Birmingham City Council has formally declared itself in financial distress - release
Ireland
Real household income fell for the poorest 10% between 2020 and 2021 and income inequality rose despite strong labour market recovery - ESRI
Italy
Reassures China on ties even as it inches toward Bely and Road Initiative exit - Bloomberg
Germany
German companies' price expectations for the coming months have declined somewhat, according to the ifo Institute's Business Survey
Poland
Poland prepares pre-election rate cut despite double digit inflation - FT
Greece
Turkish and Greek foreign ministers agree to revive talks and seek 'new approaches' - ekathimerini
Spain
Catalan fugitive Carles Puigdemont demands amnesty to support Spanish leader - FT
Russia
Russia extends reduction in oil supplies by 300,000 barrels per day by yearend, Novak - Tass
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+13.4% NEXAM.SS (Nexam Chemical Holding SEK3.46, +0.41) -- completes strategic review, expands cost savings program
+11.5% JSG.LN (Johnson Service Group £1.39, +0.14) -- H1 earnings
+8.3% CRW.LN (Craneware £15.00, +1.15) -- FY earnings
+7.0% TRX.LN (Tissue Regenix Group £0.54, +0.04) -- H1 earnings
+6.8% PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding CHF1,030.00, +65.60) -- H1 earnings
+6.3% COLR.BB (Colruyt €37.05, +2.21) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+6.3% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK480.00, +28.60) -- contract
+5.7% CLOUD.NO (Cloudberry Clean Energy NOK10.68, +0.58) -- CMD today; buyback
+5.3% TMO.LN (Time Out Group £0.50, +0.03) -- new Time Out Market in Bahrain
+5.2% ALDLT.FP (Delta Plus Group €73.10, +3.60) -- H1 earnings
+5.0% OPAP.GA (Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics €16.40, +0.78) -- Q2 earnings; buyback
+3.5% SAVE.SS (Nordnet SEK152.40, +5.20) -- Aug stats
+3.4% SKA.B.SS (Skanska SEK164.80, +5.45) -- reinitiated buy at Danske Bank; contract
+3.4% PEBB.LN (The Pebble Group £0.91, +0.03) -- H1 earnings
+3.2% ALCJ.FP (Crossject €4.14, +0.13) -- successful completion of European and U.S. audits for manufacturing of ZENEO Midazolam for epileptic seizures
+2.8% LRE.LN (Lancashire Holdings £5.87, +0.16) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+2.8% BETS.B.SS (Betsson SEK128.18, +3.46) -- online gaming license in Serbia
+2.8% ATE.FP (Alten €134.40, +3.70) -- initiated buy at Stifel
+2.7% COST.LN (Costain Group £0.60, +0.02) -- resumes dividend payments
+2.7% GIMB.BB (Gimv €43.25, +1.15) -- trading update
+2.3% MIDW.LN (Midwich Group £4.00, +0.09) -- H1 earnings
+2.0% MEN.LN (Molecular Energies £1.25, +0.02) -- to sell its Argentinian oil and gas business for up to $40M
Notable Decliners
-16.7% ADXN.SW (Addex Therapeutics CHF0.08, -0.02) -- ADX71149 Phase 2 epilepsy study expected to readout data in Q2 2024
-13.3% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €2.09, -0.32) -- Daniel Kretinsky to take control of Casino next March -- Les Echos
-12.1% SECT.B.SS (Sectra SEK152.70, -21.10) -- Q1 earnings
-11.6% ENQ.LN (EnQuest £0.15, -0.02) -- H1 earnings; delists from Nasdaq Stockholm
-7.6% GN.DC (GN Store Nord DKK129.45, -10.65) -- moves to "one company" governance structure; appoints Peter Karlstromer to Group CEO
-6.3% LUCE.LN (Luceco £1.23, -0.08) -- H1 earnings
-5.8% AD.NA (Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize €28.62, -1.75) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-5.8% CBK.GR (Commerzbank €9.64, -0.59) -- Barclays downgrade
-4.5% ECOR.LN (Ecora Resources £1.06, -0.05) -- H1 earnings
-4.0% JMT.PL (Jeronimo Martins €22.10, -0.92) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-4.0% ECEL.LN (Eurocell £1.08, -0.04) -- H1 earnings
-3.7% BOO.LN (boohoo Group £0.35, -0.01) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade
-3.4% AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding SEK202.60, -7.20) -- Aug prelim net inflow
-3.3% BME.LN (B&M European Value Retail £5.48, -0.19) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-2.8% TSCO.LN (Tesco plc £2.57, -0.07) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-2.8% AHT.LN (Ashtead Group £53.16, -1.54) -- Q1 earnings
-2.8% GVS.IM (GVS SpA €5.54, -0.16) -- H1 earnings
-2.6% DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank €9.79, -0.26) -- Deutsche Bank unit Postbank under investigation by BaFin regarding disturbances in the handling of customer business
-2.5% CFEB.BB (Cie d'Entreprises CFE €7.70, -0.20) -- Oddo downgrade
-1.9% ACA.FP (Credit Agricole €11.38, -0.22) -- Goldman Sachs downgrade
-1.3% AED.BB (Aedifica €59.70, -0.80) -- resumed hold at Societe Generale; prior rating was buy
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: InPost (INPST.NA)
DACH: Swiss Life Holding (SLHN.SW), Zumtobel Group (ZAG.AV)
France: Boiron (BOI.FP), Neurones (NRO.FP)
Nordics: Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS),
Southern Europe: Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna (ADB.IM), TOD'S (TOD.IM),
UK: Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN), Barratt Developments (BDEV.LN), Darktrace (DARK.LN), Hochschild Mining (HOC.LN), Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT.LN), The Restaurant Group Plc (RTN.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Aug services PMI
Ireland 55.0 vs consensus 55.8, prior 56.7
Russia 57.6 vs consensus 53.5, prior 54.0
Sweden 49.0vs consensus 52.0, prior 52.7
Spain 49.3 vs consensus 51.5, prior 52.8
Italy 49.8 vs consensus 50.5, prior 51.5
France 46.0 vs preliminary 46.7
Germany 47.3 vs preliminary 47.3
Eurozone 47.9 vs preliminary 48.3
UK 49.5 vs preliminary 48.7
Eurozone Jul PPI (7.6%) y/y vs consensus (7.6%), prior (3.4%), (0.5%) m/m vs consensus (0.6%), prior (0.4%)
Markets:
€-$ (0.0081) or (0.75%) to 1.0715
£-$ (0.0063) or (0.50%) to 1.2565
€-£ (0.0019) to 0.8530
S&P 500 (0.21%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (0.19%)
DAX: +13.27%
CAC: +12.06%
MIB: +20.83%
Stoxx 600: +7.53%
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