Sep 06 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mixed Wednesday with MSCI Asia ex-Japan index lower again while Tokyo gained. Hong Kong stocks briefly rallied in the afternoon session led by property stocks before finishing flat, mainland markets down. Losses for Australia, South Korea and Taiwan; Southeast Asia tilted lower, India extending opening losses. Japan closed higher for the eighth consecutive day. US futures flat, Europe weaker at the open. US dollar weaker post overnight gains, AUD, NZD and yen all stronger, yuan flat. Treasuries mixed. Crude lower with Brent breaking back down through $90/bl. Precious metals lower, industrial metals quiet.
Oil prices touched ten-month highs overnight and set off jitters over renewed inflation troubles. This led to a Treasury market selloff, a lackluster session for equities, and a stronger US dollar, which combined to give a largely lower day in Asian equity markets Wednesday. The dollar's surge prompted more intervention by Beijing and Tokyo with Japan's top FX diplomat giving strongest warning to date on yen speculation while the PBOC set its yuan reference rate at a much higher point than expected.
Hong Kong property and financial stocks rallied on a front-page commentary in a state-run newspaper calling for property ownership curbs to be scrapped in non-tier one cities but other Hang Seng sectors remained under pressure ahead of key inflation and trade data later this week. Elsewhere, Australian Q2 GDP growth in-line on a q/q basis and household consumption growth slowed further, wage indicators mixed with employee compensation growth slowing but weak productivity drove increase in unit labor cost.
Softbank (9984.JP) files to sell 95.5M ADSs in range of $47-51 per share, valuing company at $48-52B. Lordstown Motors (RIDEQ) is to prioritize other shareholders ahead of Foxconn's (Hon Hai, 2317.TT) preferred equity shares. TPG Telecom (TPG.AU) extended a due diligence period given to Vocus Group for its A$6.3B offer for non-mobile assets. DBS (D05.SP) has raised $1.5B in two US dollar bonds, one a fixed rate bond, the other a two-year floating rate both worth $750M for use in finance and treasury operations.
Digest:
China property stocks surge on talk of new stimulus:
Hang Seng mainland properties index surged around 4% Wednesday to be up more than 10% WTD following front-page commentary in Securities Times this morning said authorities should drop home-buying restrictions in regions other than top-tier cities that have hottest markets. Said urgent to continue to increase policy support on real estate sales side to boost demand suppressed by previous rigid policies. Said Shenyang authorities taking steps that other cities should follow. Comes as reports over weekend said sales in Beijing and Shanghai surged following relief of measures, and constructive news on Country Garden's debt. Individual stocks rallied significantly in Hong Kong: China Evergrande (3333.HK) +57%, Sunac China (1918.HK) +54%, Shimao (813.HK) +36%, Country Garden (2007.HK) +18% shortly after midday break ended. Bloomberg noted high-yield dollar bonds used extensively by developers little changed in low liquidity indicating bond traders remain on edge over sector's prospects.
Yen's 10-month low brings fresh warnings from officials, other Asia currencies under pressure:
Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said government had seen speculative moves in forex market and warned Tokyo prepared to act if needed. Is strongest warning to date on intervention, comes morning after yen hit 10M low against dollar. Japan officials said to be watching market with "high sense of urgency" (Bloomberg). Dollar DXY index touched 6M highs overnight as Treasuries sold off to send yields higher, on course to strengthen for eighth straight week with analysts warning upward trajectory may continue later Wednesday on ISM Services data (Bloomberg). Australia and New Zealand dollars at YTD lows following RBA decision yesterday to hold base rate unchanged, yuan at two-week lows with doubts resurfacing Tuesday over economic weakness, despite PBOC setting another strong bias in its daily mid-point setting. Other Asia currencies under pressure again Wednesday morning: WTD South Korea won already down 1.4% to approach YTD low, Singapore dollar at 9M low.
BOJ board member Takata sees budding signs of price stability:
In a speech, board member Takata said he sees budding evidence that Japan's economy is moving towards achievement of the 2% stable inflation target, citing recent developments in wage hikes and pass-through of cost increases. Noted base pay increases are particularly encouraging, given this is considered permanent compared to bonuses and has a large impact on lifting propensity to consume as well as raising expectations for future income growth. Still, also clarified that uncertainties remain extremely high and still believes it appropriate to persistently maintain easing. Argued that while headline core inflation is above 2%, conditions remain distant from the target in terms of stability and sustainability. Noted import prices have already turned negative, which will gradually ease pressure. Still observes small contribution from service price growth relative to US and Europe. Reiterated view that easing impacts will be enhanced as real rates fall. Also cited global economic slowdown due to rate hikes in western regions as another risk factor.
US seeking details on new Huawei handset powered by advanced 7nm processor:
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden administration seeking more details on reports Huawei has developed advanced 7nm processor for its Mate 60 Pro device (Bloomberg). Sullivan added development underscores need for technological restrictions on China and analysts suggested it could invite fresh probe by Commerce Department as well as possible push by Congress for harsher sanctions (Reuters). Teardown by TechInsights on Mate 60 showed processor first to utilize SMIC's (981.HK) most advanced 7nm technology. May suggest China is making quicker-than-expected progress in developing domestic chip ecosystem capable of circumventing US-led sanctions (Bloomberg). Some analysts said development of China-made processor produced at large scale could impact Apple iPhone 15 sales in China by as 38% though others downplayed Huawei's success, arguing chip's low yield rate would cap Mate 60 Pro shipments.
Oil executives see divergent near-term prices as crude hits nine-month high:
Global oil executives express diverging views on near-term oil prices at industry conference APPEC organized by S&P Global in Singapore. Gunvor global head of research and analysis Frederic Lasserre said oil's sharp rise since late June could be eased in next six months as soft demand overwhelms supply cuts, noting parts of Europe already in recession and US likely to slip into a mild one. Added uncertainty over China demand. Lasserre foresaw risk of sharp correction in Q4 or Q1 2024 and Brent could test $71 to 72 a barrel (Bloomberg). Noted Brent settled at $90.04 a barrel Tuesday, hitting nine-month high while WTI at $86.69 a barrel, also a ten-month high as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced extension of supply cuts till year-end. Meanwhile, Trafigura co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock said market vulnerable to price hikes due to low inventories, high rates environment, and underinvestment in new oil production (Reuters).
Notable Gainers:
+80.0% 3333.HK (China Evergrande Group): China reportedly to lift home-purchase restrictions in non-major cities
+70.9% 1918.HK (Sunac China Holdings): China reportedly to lift home-purchase restrictions in non-major cities
+20.8% 2007.HK (Country Garden Holdings): reportedly onshore unit seeks extension of eight bonds totaling CNY10.8B
+2.5% 123.HK (Yuexiu Property): reports August contracted sales CNY9.86B, +21.3% y/y
+2.2% 2333.HK (Great Wall Motor): reports August sales volume 114,096 units, +29.3% y/y
Notable Decliners:
-2.4% 532822.IN (Vodafone Idea): lenders reportedly seeking company promoters to inject further equity
-0.9% 2317.TT (Hon Hai Precision Industry): reports August revenue NT$412.84B, (8.0%) y/y; Lordstown Motors reportedly to prioritize other shareholders over Foxconn's preferred equity shares
-0.6% 601816.CH (Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway): deputy general manager Wang Yong taken into custody
-0.3% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): ARM Holdings files amended F-1; to offer 95.5M ADSs for selling shareholder in the range of $47-51 per ADS through Barclays, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Mizuho
Data:
Economic:
Australia Q2 GDP +0.4% q/q vs consensus +0.4% and +0.2% in Q1
GDP +2.1% y/y vs consensus +1.8% and +2.3% in Q1
Markets:
Nikkei: 204.26 or +0.62% to 33241.02
Hang Seng: (6.93) or (0.04%) to 18449.98
Shanghai Composite: 3.71 or +0.12% to 3158.08
Shenzhen Composite: 1.51 or +0.08% to 1971.59
ASX200: (57.20) or (0.78%) to 7257.10
KOSPI: (18.84) or (0.73%) to 2563.34
SENSEX: (273.16) or (0.42%) to 65507.10
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.29) or (0.19%) to 147.4380
$-KRW: +2.33 or +0.17% to 1332.2900
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.06% to 0.6384
$-INR: (0.06) or (0.08%) to 83.1400
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.05% to 7.3079
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