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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.21% to 7441.72, DAX (0.14%) to 15718.66, CAC40 +0.03% to 7196.10, STOXX 600 (0.14%) to 453.67

Sep 07 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended mixed to lower with UK FTSE100 and Switzerland SMI exceptions to the softer trend. Market continues to lean toward risk off. In sectors, miners outsized laggard after latest econ data from China, tech also slides on reinforced higher-for-longer narrative whilst utilities and healthcare outperform.

    • Macro-releases in focus as Eurozone final Q2 GDP came in below expectations at + 0.1% q/q vs 0.3% forecast, equates to +0.5% y/y vs consensus +0.6%. Bloomberg reported that household consumption was flat, government expenditures were up and employment was steady. The dismal performance for exports, due also to China weakness, allegedly forced the downward revision in overall growth numbers for the region. Q3 and Q4 may be equally uninspiring based on monetary aggregates and PMI data. In addition, German industrial production also declined again in July and more than anticipated by (0.8%) m/m vs consensus (0.5%), remaining more than (7%) below pre-pandemic level. Furthermore, Germany's IFO institute confirmed projections for a contraction by (0.4%) in the economy this year in its autumn economic forecast. Some thoughts data showing increased likelihood of stagflationary environment, Bloomberg writes. May enhance odds of September ECB pause.

    • In UK, Halifax house prices weakened further in August down (4.6%) y/y vs consensus (3.5%) and prior (2.5%) fall revised from (2.4%). On a m/m basis, prices down (1.9%) versus (0.3%) fall forecast and prior drop of (0.4%) revised down from (0.3%). Halifax highlighted that the monthly drop was the biggest since last November when mortgage rates spiked. It also noted that usual seasonal weakness was larger than prior years due to pace of mortgage rate increases over June and July. Elsewhere, Italy Jul Retail Sales y/y +2.7% vs consensus +3.0% and prior revised to +3.9% from +3.6% whilst France Jul Trade Balance deficit wider than forecast (€8.09B) vs consensus (€6.80B) and compared to prior revised to (€6.80B) from (€6.71B).

    • In central banks, investors digested some hawkish leaning ECB remarks ahead of next week's ECB meeting, which is likely to be a very close decision. Meanwhile, comments from BoE Governor Bailey and deputy chief Cunliffe sound like MPC now very close to end of tightening cycle. BoE rate hike expectations have dipped to the lowest since June with the terminal rate now seen under 5.75% after survey of decision makers. Monthly Decision Maker Panel data for August showed one-year ahead inflation expectations decreased to 4.8%, down from 5.4%.

    • Latest OECD Eurozone economic survey warned a wave of bankruptcies could hit the bloc due to higher borrowing costs, Telegraph reported. Said more companies are already failing because of high debt levels and withdrawal of pandemic-era support.

    • On the corporate front, Chargeurs (CRI.FP) and Boiron (BOI.FP) reported H1 earnings. Still, in France, SCOR (SCR.FP) launched a new strategic plan, "Forward 2026", presenting its new strategic plan for 2024-2026. The company indicated an Economic Value growth rate of 9% pa and solvency ratio in the optimal 185%-220% range. In Germany, Compu Group Medical (COP.GR) reaffirmed 2023 guidance and mid-term targets in its CMD whilst in the UK, Synthomer (SYNT.LN), Beazley (BEZ.LN), Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG.LN), Hilton Food Group (HFG.LN), Melrose Industries (MRO.LN), and Playtech (PTEC.LN) were among other companies from the region to update investors with their latest numbers. In M&A, Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLG.LN) announced that it has signed an agreement to sell its brokered commercial insurance business lines to RSA Insurance Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Intact Financial Corporation, for an Initial consideration of £520M.

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, main releases will include, amongst others, Germany Aug final CPI and France and Spain Jul industrial production.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Utilities +1.35%, Health Care +1.15%, Media +0.53%, Telecom +0.50%, Food & Beverage +0.08%, Insurance +0.07%, Construct & Mtls +0.04%, Oil & Gas (0.08%),

      • Underperformers

        • Basic Resources (2.23%), Technology (1.96%), Autos & Parts (0.89%), Banks (0.77%), Real Estate(0.72%), Chemicals (0.65%), Financial Svcs (0.60%), Retail (0.56%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.37%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.36%), Travel & Leisure (0.29%)

    • Macro:

      • Central banks

        • ECB's Lagarde Risks a Showdown in the European Parliament -- Bloomberg

        • BoE's Andrew Bailey casts doubt on need for further interest rate rises -- FT

        • Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - August 2023 -- BoE

      • EU

        • Euro-Zone Barely Grows After Export Downturn Adds Pressure -- Bloomberg

        • Stagflation Dangers Stalk Europe as Markets Eye End to Hikes -- Bloomberg

        • 'Wave of bankruptcies' threatens Europe as interest rates bite -- Telegraph

      • UK

        • UK PM Sunak faces new vote to fill seat after lawmaker accused of groping resigns -- Reuters

        • Government announces up to £650M for UK alternatives to Euratom R&T -- Gov.UK

        • UK will not change immigration policy to secure India trade deal - PM's spokesperson -- Reuters

        • August House Price Index Headline Statistics -- Halifax

      • Germany

        • Germany's industrial gloom deepens as production falls -- FT

        • German economy expected to contract by 0.4% in 2023 - Ifo -- Reuters

      • France

        • France's Le Maire urges TotalEnergies to maintain cap on fuel prices -- Reuters

      • Italy:

        • China keen to work with Italy on trade despite Belt and Road misgivings -- Reuters

        • Rise in Italy's retail sales in July driven by supermarkets -- Reuters

        • Italy and Germany join forces on tanks. Are jets next? -- Decode39.

      • Spain:

        • Spain energy bosses call for more ambition on biogas -- Reuters

      • Ireland

        • Taoiseach says he believes there will be a united Ireland in his lifetime -- Irish times

        • Electric Ireland to cut electricity and gas prices from November -- RTE

      • Sweden:

        • Reduced tax on petrol and diesel in Autumn budget -- Gov. Office

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +26.1% AGL.LN (ANGLE £0.12, +0.03) -- H1 earnings

        • +16.4% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.20, +0.03) -- 11.9M-share private placement at £0.1878/share

        • +15.8% DLG.LN (Direct Line Insurance Group £1.76, +0.24) -- H1 earnings; sells Brokered Commercial Insurance Business to Intact Financial Corporation for £520M plus earn-outs

        • +10.9% FCH.LN (Funding Circle Holdings £0.38, +0.04) -- H1 earnings

        • +8.1% BINV.SS (BioInvent International SEK17.76, +1.42) -- achievement of a research milestone event in its collaboration with Exelixis triggering a $1M milestone payment

        • +6.8% JET2.LN (Jet2 £11.00, +0.70) -- AGM update

        • +5.7% SLP.LN (Sylvania Platinum £0.72, +0.04) -- final FY earning

        • +5.5% CBP.LN (Curtis Banks Group £3.48, +0.18) -- acquisition by Nucleus to become effective 26-Sep

        • +5.3% MRO.LN (Melrose Industries £5.53, +0.27) -- H1 earnings; management changes

        • +4.7% SCR.FP (SCOR SE €29.37, +1.32) -- new strategic plan "Forward 2026"

        • +4.5% BIOS.BB (BioSenic €0.03, -0.00) -- H1 earnings

        • +3.7% BPOST.BB (bpost €4.59, +0.16) -- new CEO

        • +3.5% KEMIRA.FH (Kemira €14.89, +0.50) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade

        • +3.3% TOD.IM (Tod's €38.50, +1.26) -- H1 earnings

        • +1.9% MTX.GR (MTU Aero Engines €214.10, +3.90) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade

        • +0.3% CRN.LN (Cairn Homes £0.98, -0.00) -- H1 earnings

      • Notable Decliners

        • -26.8% CRNA.NO (Circio Holding NOK0.45, -0.14) -- to host webcast and Q+A on 19-Sep in connection with previously announced EGM

        • -26.0% SYNT.LN (Synthomer £0.45, -0.16) -- H1 earnings; announces ~ £276M rights issue and capital reorganisation

        • -17.7% CVSG.LN (CVS Group £15.86, -3.69) -- CMA veterinary industry investigation

        • -17.6% QLINEA.SS (Q-linea SEK4.20, -0.83) -- CEO to step down

        • -9.4% PETS.LN (Pets At Home Group £3.33, -0.35) -- CMA veterinary industry investigation

        • -9.0% CRI.FP (Chargeurs €9.01, -0.97) -- H1 earnings

        • -8.6% ABVX.FP (Abivax €18.04, -1.64) -- business and operational update

        • -7.7% GNS.LN (Genus £21.20, -1.72) -- FY earnings

        • -6.7% SAFE.LN (Safestore Holdings £8.41, -0.58) -- Q3 trading update

        • -3.6% SK3.ID (Smurfit Kappa Group €37.44, -1.36) -- potential combination with WestRock

        • -3.5% KNEBV.FH (Kone €41.90, -1.49) -- initiated underweight at Barclays

        • -2.7% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK12,380.00, -340.00) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade

        • -1.1% LSEG.LN (London Stock Exchange Group £80.72, -0.88) -- sale of 43.1M shares at 7,950p/each by shareholders consortium

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Benelux: EXMAR NV (EXM.BB)

        • France: Delfingen Industry (ALDEL.FP), Viel & Cie (VIL.FP)

        • Southern Europe: Avio (AVIO.IM)

        • UK: Computacenter (CCC.LN), Petershill Partners (PHLL.LN

      • Trading Update: Berkeley Group (BKG.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Eurozone Q2 Final GDP +0.5% y/y vs 2nd estimate +0.6%

      • Germany Jul Industrial Production (0.8%) m/m vs consensus (0.5%) and prior revised (1.4%) from (1.5%)

      • UK August Halifax House Prices y/y (4.6%) vs consensus (3.5%) and prior (2.4%)

      • Italy Jul Retail Sales y/y +2.7% vs consensus +3.0% and prior revised to +3.9% from +3.6%

      • France Jul Trade Balance (€8.09B) vs consensus (€6.80B) and prior revised to (€6.80B) from (€6.71B)

      • Switzerland Aug Unemployment rate (sa) 2.0% vs consensus 1.9% and prior 1.9%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (23-Oct): ($0.19) or (0.22%) to $87.35

      • €-$ (0.0018) or (0.17%) to 1.0708

      • £-$ (0.0019) or (0.15%) to 1.2486

      • €-£ (0.0000) to 0.8576

      • S&P 500 (0.32%)

      • Performance year-to-date:

        • FTSE 100: (0.13%)

        • DAX: +12.89%

        • CAC: +11.16%

        • MIB: +18.77%

        • Stoxx 600: +6.77%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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