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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.16%), Hang Seng Closed, Shanghai Composite (0.18%) as of 04:10 ET

Sep 08 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended lower Friday on disappointing Japan GDP data and as US-China technology tensions increased. Mainland China markets fell again but had pared much of their losses by the close, Hong Kong closed due to adverse weather. More losses for Australia to close a poor week, Taiwan lower as iPhone suppliers underperformed. South Korea lower, Southeast Asia outperforming modestly. India higher for its sixth straight day post strong PMI data earlier in the week. US futures higher, Europe opened with small gains. US dollar slightly lower, AUD gaining, yen weakening over the afternoon again, yuan hitting fresh 16-year lows. Treasury yields mixed. Crude oil lower on global growth concerns, industrial metals down, precious metals higher.

    • US markets weak overnight after jobless claims added to strong ISM Services data to reflect a robust US economy and feed into the narrative that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, along with a 40% chance in the futures market of another 25 bp increase in November. Adding to the gloom was a decision by Beijing to ban state employees from owning an iPhone, leading to Apple shares to fall sharply. This dragged other US tech stocks lower, which fed across to Asia today, particularly iPhone suppliers in Taiwan.

    • Japan Q2 GDP revised lower by more than forecast amid drags from capex and consumption, real wages shrank at a faster pace, finance minister Suzuki the latest to vow response against excessive yen volatility. Singapore's MAS asked local banks to look at their ties to money laundering suspects as a police probe widened.

    • Itochu (8001.JP) is to invest in battery farms to store energy from renewable sources along with privately owned, Australia based Akaysha Energy. TSMC (2330.TT) among the stocks losing ground Friday on reports Beijing was curbing iPhone usage by state employees. Hon Hai (2317.TT) is working with STMicroelectronics (STMPA.FR) to build a 40 nm chip plant in India. Indosat (ISAT.JK) is considering a sale of $1B in fiber assets following strategic review.

  • Digest:

    • Offshore yuan slides toward lowest on record after PBOC cuts fixing:

      • Offshore yuan hit 7.36 per dollar level on Friday morning, beyond psychologically important 7.35 level and close to weakest since inception of offshore market in 2010. Came after PBOC set its yuan fixing at two-month low Friday at 7.2150, 164 pips weaker than Thursday, stoking bets that Beijing might be comfortable with gradual currency depreciation (Bloomberg). Added onshore yuan weakened to a 16-year low Thursday. FX analysts noted weaker fixing shows PBOC willing to accept higher dollar-yuan rate as long as it is not isolated case, eyeing rate to hit 7.40 or even 7.60 level by December. Meanwhile dollar heading for longest winning streak in nine years bolstered by resilient US macro data (Reuters). Yuan weighted by China's increasingly gloomy economic prospects and monetary policy divergence with US, despite PBOC going through toolbox including guiding state banks to sell dollars, squeezing offshore liquidity and boosting supply of foreign exchange in local market.

    • Japan Finance Minister Suzuki's verbal intervention has some impact:

      • Japan Finance Minister Suzuki said at a press conference that authorities are monitoring yen weakness with a high degree of urgency and vowed to respond appropriately against excessive volatility without ruling out various options (Nikkei). Added that it is important for FX markets to reflect fundamentals and excess volatility is undesirable. USD/JPY briefly dropped as low as 146.60 from an early session high of 147.37, though now back to low-147 area. Echoes yesterday's remarks by vice finance minister for international affairs Kanda who observed market movements cannot be explained by fundamentals and also flagged intent to use a range of options. Recall that FX narrative has become more bearish lately amid downgrades to year-end yen forecasts among several brokerages, though predictions for possible FX intervention start from the 150 threshold. Nikkei noted JPMorgan FX strategy added to bearish analysis, noting interest rate differential between Japan and the global aggregate has reached 4.8 ppt, larger than in 2007 during the boom in yen carry trades. JPMorgan expects this spread to widen further towards 5 ppt by year-end. Story also noted speculators remain bearish with US CFTC data showing consistent net selling since March 2021.

    • Japan Q2 GDP revised down, wage growth disappoints:

      • Q2 GDP was revised to 4.8% q/q annualized growth, below consensus 5.6% and follows first preliminary 6.0%. Main factor was capital spending, marked down to a 1.0% q/q decline from flat, after MOF corporate survey input came in relatively soft. Additional drags came from marginal downward revisions to private consumption and public investment. Private inventories (another potential x-factor) and external demand were unchanged. Recall that surprising H1 strength prompted some economists to upgrade their 2023 projections, though with some debate over whether there will be negative payback in H2. Nominal average wages rose 1.3% y/y in July, below consensus 2.4%. Follows 2.3% in the previous month, marking the softest growth in three months. Accordingly, real wage declines deepened to 2.5% from 1.6%. Main driver was lower growth in special payments as the remainder of semi-annual bonuses were paid out (recall this was the main support factor in June). Contracted earnings strengthened slightly as mild acceleration in scheduled payments were largely offset by softer growth in overtime. Overtime hours fell for the first time in three months alongside scheduled shifts, resulting in a decline in total hours worked.

    • US faces calls to strengthen tech curbs on China following latest developments:

      • Reports China is widening its iPhone ban in an effort to favor devices from Chinese OEMs looms as another flashpoint in US-China tech rivalry. Follows this week's release of new Huawei smartphone that has prompted debate over China's speed in developing its own semiconductor ecosystem. It has also called into question efficacy of current US export controls and whether Washington will tighten them. Bloomberg reported Commerce Department has launched fresh probe into Huawei and purported 7nm processor that powers its Mate 60 Pro device. China's iPhone ban and Huawei's breakthrough also drawing criticism from US lawmakers (Reuters). GOP Chair of House Select Committee on China, Mike Gallagher, said SMIC (981.HK) may have violated US sanctions as he called for Commerce Department to end all technology exports to Huawei and SMIC (Reuters).

    • BOJ's Takata said latest Bond Market Survey somewhat underwhelmed:

      • Following BOJ board member Takata's earlier speech, Nikkei cited additional remarks indicating there were hopes to see a bigger improvement in the latest BOJ Bond Market Survey following the YCC tweaks implemented in July. While the headline bond market functioning DI improved for the second consecutive quarter, story noted caution among BOJ officials and market participants the recovery process is still only mid-way. Highlighted mixed details in the survey, noting bid-ask spreads remained wide while market depth was marginally worse. Mizuho Securities said markets now becoming more anxious about future JGB purchase operations. Citigroup Securities argued there is no change to the BOJ's tight control of the market and total trading volumes have not improved. Article also recalled a relevant comment from board member Nakagawa's speech, acknowledging the limits of market improvement while the BOJ controls the market. Cited other BOJ officials expressing doubts the JGB market functioning can fully recover while YCC persists.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +6.4% MPI.PM (Metro Pacific Investments): to extend tender offer to 19-Sep

      • +2.9% 195940.KS (HK inno.N): signs agreement with Dong-A ST to develop next-generation non-small cell lung cancer treatment

      • +0.3% 9502.JP (Chubu Electric Power Co.): reportedly has agreed to purchase stake in NuScale Power from Japan Bank for International Cooperation

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -3.0% 601155.CH (Seazen Holdings): reports August contracted sales CNY6.05B, (36.3%) y/y

      • -1.0% 8630.JP (Sompo): Sompo Japan Insurance President Giichi Shirakawa reportedly expected to resign in a move related to the handling of alleged fraudulent insurance claims by Bigmotor

      • -0.4% 8001.JP (ITOCHU): ITOCHU, Akaysha Energy to collaborate in utility scale energy storage business; reportedly to invest up to ¥100B in battery farms

      • -0.3% 1928.JP (Sekisui House): reports H1 revenue ¥1.462T, +3% vs year-ago ¥1.424T

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • Q2 revised GDP +4.8% q/q annualized vs consensus +5.6% and preliminary +6.0%

          • GDP +1.2% q/q vs consensus +1.4% and preliminary +1.5%

        • July nominal average wages +1.3% y/y vs consensus +2.4% and +2.3% in prior month

          • Real wages (2.5%) y/y vs consensus (1.4%) and (1.6%) in prior month

        • August bank lending +3.1% y/y vs revised +2.9% in prior month

        • July current account balance ¥2,771.7B vs ¥1,508.8B in prior month

        • August Economy Watchers Survey current conditions index 53.6 vs consensus 54.4 and 54.4 in prior month

          • Outlook index 51.4 vs 54.1 in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (384.24) or (1.16%) to 32606.84

      • Hang Seng: Closed

      • Shanghai Composite: (5.63) or (0.18%) to 3116.72

      • Shenzhen Composite: (1.32) or (0.07%) to 1935.54

      • ASX200: (14.30) or (0.20%) to 7156.70

      • KOSPI: (0.58) or (0.02%) to 2547.68

      • SENSEX: 277.90 or +0.42% to 66543.46

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.08 or +0.06% to 147.3850

      • $-KRW: (2.20) or (0.17%) to 1332.6300

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.32% to 0.6396

      • $-INR: (0.26) or (0.32%) to 82.9620

      • $-CNY: +0.02 or +0.23% to 7.3456

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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