Sep 08 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets finished mostly higher, well off worst levels. Cyclicals such as media, personal & household goods, travel/leisure outperform; Basic Resources and Construction & Materials the biggest decliners. US equity markets also higher at this time, whilst Asia closed lower. Treasuries firmer with some curve flattening following Thursday's gains, though yields still higher on the week. Dollar index down 0.1%, though holding onto solid gains for the week. Gold up 0.5%. Bitcoin futures down 0.2%. WTI crude up 1.0% on pace for gain for the week. European natural gas prices sharply higher unions launch strike at Chevron's Australian LNG facilities.
Risk sentiment soft following reports China widening its iPhone ban. Development coincides with much-hyped release of new Huawei smartphone that prompted debate over China's advances in developing advanced semiconductors. Cautious market sentiment also attributed to recent backup in bond yields, dollar strength, oil surge to six-month high and waning disinflation momentum. However, latest Fedspeak still points to Sept pauses and there were cautious comments from ECB officials and BoE this week. Ahead of next week's ECB policy decision, economists divided on pause or hike. Inflation reports have been mixed since June. Economies like Germany and the Netherlands already fell into a recession, with Italy at risk, and most others have either barely grown or contracted. Bloomberg survey showed almost even split between those anticipating 10th consecutive hike and those anticipating a "hawkish pause". BoE rate hike expectations have dipped to the lowest since June with the terminal rate now seen under 5.75% after survey of decision makers.
Relatively quiet European macro calendar. German final CPI unchanged from flash. Destatis confirmed that German HICP inflation eased in August to 6.4% y/y as predicted by preliminary data. Equates to 0.4% m/m. Destatis noted food and energy prices were somewhat larger than in the two previous months. French industrial production beat, while Spanish reading weak as expected. Latest update from UK's Recruitment and Employment Confederation, which showed hiring is falling at fastest pace in more than three years.
Amidst light corporate newsflow, out of the UK, Restaurant Group (RTN.LN) chairman Ken Hanna will not seek re-election at the next AGM during 2024 due to personal reasons. Computacenter (CCC.LN) in the spotlight after it reported stronger H1 earnings. Gear4music (Holdings) (G4M.lN) AGM statement shows trading during financial YTD in line with board's expectations. Ghana's Minerals Income Investment Fund agrees to invest $32.9M (A$51.4M /£26.3M) in Atlantic Lithium (ALL.LN) and its Ghanaian subsidiaries. In the Nordics, Mellby Gård offers to acquire Duni (DUNI.SS) for SEK 96.80/sh in cash. Mendus (IMMU.SS) receives FDA fast track designation for vididencel in AML. Abliva (ABLI.SS) CEO says company on track with recruitment for study with KL1333 and timeline to interim analysis; whilst BioInvent International (BINV.SS) initiates subcutaneous arm of Phase 1/2 trial with BI-1206 in solid tumors. In Spain, Repsol (REP.SM) to acquire renewable energy platform ConnectGen for $768M from Quantum Capital Group. And in Italy, Saipem (SPM.IM) has been awarded new offshore contracts in Côte d'Ivoire and Italy worth in total €850M. Of note, Co. Brasileira (CBD) holder Casino Guichard Perrachon (CO.FP) to begin negotiations for the sale of the indirect shareholding held by the company in Cnova N.V., (CNV.FP) to an entity of the Casino group.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Consumer Products and Services +1.42%, Travel & Leisure +1.35%, Media +1.21%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.68%, Utilities +0.63%, Oil & Gas+0.39%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.37%, Autos & Parts +0.26%
Underperformers: Construct & Mtls (0.47%), Basic Resources (0.33%), Real Estate (0.19%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.16%), Telecom (0.11%), Technology (0.06%), Chemicals (0.02%), Financial Svcs +0.04%, Health Care +0.06%, Retail +0.22%, Banks +0.22%
Macro:
Poll shows ECB's hike-or-pause dilemma going down to the wire -- Bloomberg, Reuters
Euro heads for eight-week losing streak as economy falters -- FT
OPEC+ output up by 120Kbpd in August, according to Platts survey
G20:
Members struggle for consensus on Ukraine as India gears up for summit -- Reuters
Sunak will call for actions on Ukraine, climate and AI at the G20 summit in Delhi -- The London Times
Who is attending the G20 summit in New Delhi? -- Reuters
Trade deal between the UK and India isn't guaranteed anytime soon: Sky News
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Nationwide airport ground staff strike causes disruptions - ANSA
Greece:
Government scrambles to mitigate disaster effects - ekathimerini
Deadly storm sweeps across Greece, PM postpones keynote speech - Reuters
Finland:
Government survives no-confidence vote over racism scandal - Reuters
Poland
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+34.9% G4M.LN (Gear4music (Holdings) £1.18, +0.31) -- AGM statement
+25.0% ALL.LN (Atlantic Lithium £0.26, +0.05) -- Ghana's Minerals Income Investment Fund agrees to invest $32.9M (A$51.4M /£26.3M) in Atlantic Lithium and its Ghanaian subsidiaries
+22.5% BUR.LN (Burford Capital £13.43, +2.47) -- US District Court for the Southern District of New York has released its decision concerning damages and interest in the Petersen and Eton Park claims against the Republic of Argentina.
+14.7% CCC.LN (Computacenter £24.74, +3.18) -- H1 earnings
+7.8% RTN.LN (Restaurant Group £0.47, +0.03) -- Chair to step down
+6.9% ABLI.SS (Abliva SEK0.27, +0.02) -- Abliva CEO Ellen K. Donnelly says on track with recruitment for study with KL1333 and timeline to interim analysis - BioStock
+4.7% SPM.IM (Saipem €1.54, +0.07) -- new offshore contracts in Côte d'Ivoire and Italy worth in total €850M
+4.0% IMMU.SS (Mendus SEK0.31, +0.01) -- receives FDA fast track designation for vididencel in AML
+3.7% VIL.FP (Viel & Cie €8.34, +0.30) -- H1 earnings
+3.0% ADJ.GR (ADLER Group €0.51, +0.01) -- sale of a Mannheim-based development portfolio
+2.8% DUNI.SS (Duni SEK99.50, +2.70) -- Mellby Gård offers to acquire Duni for SEK 96.80/share in cash
+2.6% DIE.BB (D'Ieteren Group €157.60, +4.00) -- H1 earnings
+1.8% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €2.12, +0.04) -- Co. Brasileira (CBD) holder Casino Guichard Perrachon to begin negotiations for the sale of the indirect shareholding held by the company in Cnova N.V. (CNV.FP), to an entity of the Casino group
+1.7% REP.SM (Repsol €14.87, +0.26) -- acquisition
+1.7% DFCH.LN (Distribution Finance Capital Holdings £0.30, +0.01) -- secures a new £20M tier 2 capital facility from British business investments
+1.7% FING.B.SS (Fingerprint Cards SEK1.26, +0.02) -- signs collaboration agreement for developing biometric door locks and embedded applications in India
Notable Decliners
-8.0% ETH.IM (Eurotech SpA €2.83, -0.25) -- H1 earnings
-6.6% BINV.SS (BioInvent International SEK17.62, -1.24) -- initiates subcutaneous arm of Phase 1/2 trial with BI-1206 in solid tumors
-2.4% CTEC.LN (ConvaTec Group £2.25, -0.06) -- agrees with Novo Holdings A/S, to end relationship agreement entered into when Novo Holdings acquired their stake in Convatec
EU companies reporting 11-Sep:
Earnings:
France: SES-imagotag (SESL.FP), Seche Environnement (SCHP.FP)
Southern Europe: Pharmanutra (PHN.IM), Antares Vision (AV.IM), Newlat Food (NWL.IM), Aquafil (ECNL.IM), GR Sarantis (SAR.GA),
UK: Vistry Group (VTY.LN), M.P. Evans (MPE.LN), Inspired (INSE.LN)
CMD/events: Riche (ROG.SW) pharma day, Swiss Re (SREN.SW)
Data:
Economics:
Germany Aug CPI +6.1% y/y vs prelim +6.1%; +0.3% m/m vs prelim +0.3%
EU Harmonised: +6.4% y/y vs prelim +6.4%; +0.4% m/m vs prelim +0.4%
Jul Industrial Production
France +0.8% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior (0.9%)
Spain (1.8%) y/y vs cons (2.0%) and prior revised (3.2%) from (3.0%)
Sweden (4.0%) y/y vs cons (2.0%) and prior revised to (2.0%) from (2.8%); +4.0% m/m vs cons +2.5% and prior revised to (5.2%) from (5.5%)
Netherlands Jul Manufacturing Production (0.6%) m/m vs cons +0.3% and prior revised +0.9% from +0.7%
Denmark Jul Trade Balance DKK19.1B vs cons DKK25.1B and prior revised DKK18.4B from DKK20.9B
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 23): +$0.95 or +1.09% to $87.82
€-$ +0.0018 or +0.17% to 1.0716
£-$ +0.0006 or +0.05% to 1.2477
€-£ +0.0013 to 0.8591
S&P 500 +0.45%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +0.37%
DAX: +13.00%
CAC: +11.90%
MIB: +19.11%
Stoxx 600: +7.02%
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE