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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.41% to 7527.53, DAX (0.54%) to 15715.53, CAC40 (0.35%) to 7252.88, STOXX 600 (0.18%) to 455.40

Sep 12 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets finished mostly lower, but off worst levels; FTSE 100, Italy, Norway, Switzerland and Spain amidst the exceptions at the close. Retail, Telecom and Insurance sectors outperform, while Chemicals, Technology and Real Estate lag. US equity markets softer with S&P off 0.2% after US equities finished higher on Monday with upside leadership from select megacap tech+ names on AI enthusiasm. Bonds giving back gains as US 10-year unchanged at 4.29%. Bund and Gilts also little changed. US Dollar weaker vs. Loonie, but stronger elsewhere. Oil up, posting new 2023 highs. Gold down. Industrial metals higher.

    • Attention in Europe on UK labor market data, which saw unemployment increase but acceleration in average earnings to put pressure on BoE to tighten further. German ZEW investor sentiment unexpectedly improved in September to -11.4 versus consensus -15.0 and prior -12.3. However, current conditions index continued to weaken to the lowest level in three years to 79.4 versus consensus -75.5 and prior -71.3. Hawkish BoE official Mann backed more tightening due to risk of inflation becoming embedded. BofA's latest European fund manager survey for September showed that while a majority of investors see European equities falling in the coming months due to monetary tightening, fading bets that the economy will be tipped into recession over the next year have led an increasing number to take a more optimistic view on stocks in the medium term.

    • In European corporate news, press reports suggest German government interested in Thussenkrupp (TKA.GR) Marine Systems stake. Attention on Smurfit Kappa (SKG.LN) after it agreed to combine with WestRock (WRK) in a deal with $11.2B to create one of the world's largest paper and packaging producers worth nearly $20B. Campari's (CPR.IM) long-serving CEO Kunze-Concewitz will step down as of April 2024; Fantacchiotti, managing director Asia Pacific, would become deputy CEO effective immediately and would take the CEO post as of Apri. In earnings, Associated British Foods (ABF.LN) FY trading update included FY sales outlook upgrade with the group expecting retail revenue ~£9.00B vs consensus ~£8.99B, driven by strong trading from both its Primark clothing business and its food operations in its latest quarter. Keywords Studios (KWS.LN) reports H1 EPS €55.60 ex-items vs year-ago €55.89; expects FY adj. operating margin to remain above 15%.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Autos & Parts +0.71%, Telecom +0.70%, Insurance +0.65%, Banks +0.60%, Retail +0.58%, Oil & Gas+0.35%, Financial Svcs +0.17%, Travel & Leisure +0.16%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.06%)

      • Underperformers: Chemicals (1.52%), Real Estate (1.15%), Consumer Products and Services (0.90%), Media (0.80%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.76%), Construct & Mtls (0.75%), Technology (0.66%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.57%), Basic Resources (0.49%), Utilities (0.23%)

    • Macro:

      • ECB suspense intensifies with officials split over rate decision - Bloomberg

      • German economic weakness belies France's outperformance - Reuters

      • Europe's weak gas demand signals industrial malaise taking hold - Bloomberg

      • Hawkish BoE official Mann supports further tightening: speech

      • UK unemployment increases, but wage growth accelerates due to bonuses: Official UK data

      • UK: value of outstanding balances with arrears +13.0% q/q, +28.8% y/y to £16.9B in Q2-23 -- BoE

      • UK mortgages in arrears jump to seven-year high - FT

    • Peripheral markets:

      • Italy:

        • Italy lobby says bank tax legally doubtful, needs revision - Bloomberg

        • Preparing budget with few resources is the real challenge, says Meloni -- ANSA

        • Nothing to toast as Italy loses wine-making leadership to France - Reuters

      • Greece:

        • EU ready to weigh into Greek recovery effort - Kathimerini

        • Greece to raise up to 7 bln euros from bond markets in 2024 - Reuters

        • Who benefits from Greek-Turkish relations deadlock? - Kathimerini

      • Ukraine:

        • Putin signals he expects long war in Ukraine, is not betting on Trump - Reuters

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +60.2% OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics €5.20, +1.96) -- cancer vaccine data publication in Annals of Oncology

        • +12.2% SESL.FP (SES-imagotag €125.20, +13.60) -- H1 earnings

        • +8.5% JTC.LN (JTC £7.32, +0.58) -- H1 earnings

        • +7.1% NWL.IM (Newlat Food €6.35, +0.42) -- H1 earnings

        • +7.0% HVO.LN (hVIVO plc £0.20, +0.01) -- H1 earnings

        • +6.6% GMR.LN (Gaming Realms £0.39, +0.02) -- H1 earnings

        • +6.0% EQLS.LN (Equals Group £1.06, +0.06) -- H1 earnings; proposes capital reduction

        • +3.5% WIX.LN (Wickes Group £1.43, +0.05) -- H1 earnings

        • +2.5% MTW.LN (Mattioli Woods £6.20, +0.15) -- FY earnings

        • +2.1% IQE.LN (IQE £0.17, -0.00) -- H1 earnings

        • +1.2% SBX.NO (Seabird Exploration NOK5.22, +0.06) -- contract

      • Notable Decliners

        • -20.3% ALDVI.FP (Advicenne €2.65, -0.68) -- lauches capital increase

        • -18.4% MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings £0.83, -0.19) -- updates on capital planning related to application for residential mortgages

        • -16.2% RAL.FP (Rallye €0.13, -0.03) -- AMF fine

        • -9.9% HMS.SS (HMS Networks SEK379.00, -41.60) -- trading update

        • -9.6% SKG.LN (Smurfit Kappa Group £27.72, -2.96) -- merger

        • -7.2% PCO.PW (Pepco Group PLN28.50, -2.20) -- CEO steps down; guidance update

        • -6.1% CHG.LN (Chemring Group £2.86, -0.19) -- trading update

        • -5.1% ORPHA.DC (Orphazyme DKK1.04, -0.06) -- H1 earnings

        • -5.0% SZU.GR (Suedzucker €0.00, -0.77) -- press reports suggest company has planned not to lift beet output in France in 2024 due to increased Ukraine imports

        • -4.3% KWS.LN (Keywords Studios £14.10, -0.63) -- H1 earnings

        • -3.5% EKF.LN (EKF Diagnostics Holdings £0.25, -0.01) -- trading update

        • -2.4% NESTE.FH (Neste €35.02, -0.85) -- updates its third-quarter 2023 outlook regarding Oil Products

        • -2.3% CREO.LN (Creo Medical Group £0.32, -0.01) -- H1 earnings

        • -1.2% VRAP.FP (Vranken-Pommery Monopole €16.90, -0.20) -- H1 earnings

        • -0.4% BOUV.NO (Bouvet NOK55.40, -0.20) -- acquisition

        • -0.2% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €7.20, -0.02) -- German government interested in taking minority stake in Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems - Handelsblatt

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • France: Esker (ALESK.FP), Assystem (ASY.FP), Aubay (AUB.FP), Roche Bobois (RBO.FP), Jacquet Metals (JCQ.FP), LNA Sante (LNA.FP), Carmat (ALCAR.FP), HighCo (HCO.FP)

        • Southern Europe: Inditex (ITX.SM), ElvalHalcor Hellenic Copper & Aluminium Industry (ELHA.GA), EXOR (EXO.IM), Toscana Aeroporti (TYA.IM)

        • UK: Burford Capital Ltd. (BUR.LN), Redrow (RDW.LN), Tullow Oil (TLW.LN), Central Asia Metals (CAML.LN), Ricardo (RCDO.LN), CAB Payments (CABP.LN), Argentex (AGFX.LN), Pharos Energy (PHAR.LN)

      • Trading Update: On The Beach (OTB.LN), Graines Voltz (GRVO.FP)

      • Traffic: Fraport (FRA.GR), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV)

      • CMD/events: Hunting (HTG.LN), Interum (INTRUM.SS)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • UK Aug Claimant Count Change +0.9K vs consensus +17.0K and prior revised +7.4K from +29.0K

      • UK Jul Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs consensus 4.3% and prior 4.2%

      • Germany Sep ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator (11.4) vs consensus (15.0) and prior (12.3)

      • Germany Sep ZEW Current Situation (79.4) vs consensus (75.0) and prior (71.3)

      • Spain Aug Final CPI +2.6% y/y vs preliminary +2.6%; +0.5% m/m vs preliminary +0.5%

        • EU Harmonised: Aug CPI +2.4% y/y vs preliminary +2.4%; Aug CPI +0.5% m/m vs preliminary +0.5%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Oct 23): +$1.95 or +2.23% to $89.24

      • €-$ (0.0024) or (0.22%) to 1.0728

      • £-$ (0.0028) or (0.22%) to 1.2480

      • €-£ +0.0003 to 0.8596

      • S&P 500 (0.33%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +1.02%

        • DAX: +12.87%

        • CAC: +12.04%

        • MIB: +20.57%

        • Stoxx 600: +7.18%

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