Sep 13 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for a mixed start to Thursday trade. Hang Seng and ASX futures flat while Nikkei futures pointing to gains on the open. S&P 500 futures nudging higher afterhours. Australian yields down 1-2 bp. Dollar pulling lower against yen, steady elsewhere following some choppiness in aftermath of CPI data. Crude pushing above lows that followed bearish EIA inventory data.
Mixed takeaways from US CPI data with yield curves steepening in the aftermath. Core inflation came in hotter but not enough to sway expectations of a Fed pause in September (though odds of another rate hike by year-end ticked up to 46%). Fits with recent discussion around how above-target inflation, and upside risks from surging oil prices and resilient economy, strengthen Fed's higher-for-longer stance. Markets have recently pushed back expected policy pivot further in 2024.
Trade tensions resurfacing after EU launched probe into Chinese subsidies for EVs it blamed for distorting market. Adds to recent geopolitical friction over reports China expanded government ban on iPhones, which White House said appears to be a retaliatory move (Beijing earlier denied it had issued a ban). Comes after Biden administration opened probe into new Huawei smartphone, sparking concerns of a tech war escalation.
In other developments, Country Garden faces Thursday deadline in its bid to win creditor approval to extend repayment of its eighth and final onshore note. PBOC-run paper reported central bank aiming to strengthen demand and support moderate recovery in prices. Arm IPO priced at top end of range as widely foreshadowed in press. Stock to begin trade Thursday.
Few high profile events on today's economic calendar. ECB decision expected to be finely balanced though consensus leaning towards a 25 bp rate hike. Expected to be final rate hike of the cycle though statement and commentary seen reinforcing higher-for-longer policy stance. Australian employment forecast to have rebounded from July's surprise contraction while jobless rate expected to be unchanged. Data not expected to factor into October RBA decision though some economists clinging to expectations of a final rate hike in November.
Pre-open Company News:
Daiwa upgrades 7181.JP, 8750.JP, 8795.JP
8473.JP -- SBI Holdings resumed overweight at JPMorgan; prior rating was overweight
2318.HK -- Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China reports gross premium income from 1-Jan to 31-Aug
China Jan-Jul home appliances production update
Consortium including Sino Land, China Overseas Land & Investment wins tender for Hong Kong land parcel at HK$5.35B (CNY4.98B)
1873.HK -- Viva Biotech acquires remaining 20% stake in subsidiary Langhua Pharmaceutical for CNY640M from minority holders
^ESG -- StreetAccount ESG Headlines (13-Sep)
Bernstein upgrades 1193.HK, 2688.HK (timing uncertain)
600583.CH -- Offshore Oil Engineering initiated buy at Cinda Securities
8354.JP -- Fukuoka Financial Group upgraded to buy from neutral at SBI Securities Japan
512.HK -- Grand Pharmaceutical Group's phase III clinical trial of Ryaltris compound nasal spray for treatment of seasonal allergic rhinitis meets primary endpoint
4502.JP -- Takeda Pharmaceutical's BLA for subcutaneous administration of ENTYVIO (vedolizumab) for maintenance therapy in Crohn's Disease accepted by FDA
2328.HK -- PICC Property & Casualty reports total premium income CNY366.31B, +7.7% y/y, from 1-Jan to 31-Aug
1339.HK -- People's Insurance Co. (Group) of China reports Jan-Aug P&C premium income CNY366.31B, +7.7% y/y
2601.HK -- China Pacific Insurance (Group) reports Jan-Aug premium income
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Core Machinery Orders ex-Electric Power Companies & Ships SA M/M; consensus (0.2%)
13:30 JST: Industrial Production SA M/M (Final); consensus (2%)
Earnings:
Park24 Co. (4666.JP)
Australia:
Economic:
11:00 AEST: Consumer Inflation Expectation; consensus
11:30 AEST: Unemployment Rate; consensus 3.6%
11:30 AEST: Employment SA; consensus +22K
Earnings:
Myer Holdings (MYR.AU), US Masters Residential Property Fund (URF.AU)
Market Data:
Gold (Dec 23): ($1.60) or (0.08%) to $1930.90
WTI Crude (Oct 23): +$0.20 or +0.23% to $88.72
$-¥: +0.23 or +0.16% to 147.3070
$-KRW: +3.72 or +0.28% to 1329.4600
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.08%) to 0.6422
$-INR: +0.10 or +0.12% to 82.9597
$-CNY: (0.02) or (0.32%) to 7.2688
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