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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.21%), Hang Seng (0.09%), Shanghai Composite (0.45%) as of 04:10 ET

Sep 13 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended with a negative tilt Wednesday in a quiet session as traders waited for US inflation data. Hong Kong rallied back to the flatline over the day supported by property stocks but mainland benchmarks remained in the red. South Korea lower, Taiwan flat. Southeast Asia largely lower, India seeing more gains to touch record highs. Japan closed mixed with Nikkei lower but Topix flat. US futures slightly weaker, European opened lower. US dollar flat, AUD and yen weaker, yuan a little stronger. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields slightly lower. Brent hit fresh ten-month high at more than $93 per barrel before retreating, WTI also up. Industrial metals slightly lower, precious metals also under pressure.

    • Asia markets relatively quiet as they wait for US August CPI later tonight. Consensus looking for headline 3.6% y/y or 0.6% m/m, and core at 4.3% y/y, 0.2% m/m; if so, headline will be highest since Jun-22 as fuel prices absorbed but core will see a small drop from July. Markets also keeping an eye on the ECB decision Thursday, with index swaps indicating a slightly better than 50/50 chance of a 25 bp increase but that is up from 41% just two days ago following a Reuters report that indicated ECB expected inflation to be above 3% in 2024.

    • Among Asia catalysts today, the Reuters Tankan survey showed Japan manufacturer confidence fell by the most in eight months while services sector sentiment also dropped sharply. A separate Japan MOF business sentiment index showed improvement for manufacturers and nonmanufacturers, while wholesale inflation slowed for an eighth straight month. South Korea's unemployment reached a fresh record low but household debt rose sharply, prompting financial authorities to introduce loan curbs. Country Garden secured creditor approval to extend repayment on a seventh yuan bond while Hong Kong-listed carmakers under pressure late on after the EC launched an anti-subsidy probe into Chinese EVs.

    • Softbank's (9984.JP) could be priced at $51/share, the top end of its intended range. Creditors of a seventh Country Garden (2007.HK) yuan-denominated bond agreed to extend its payment deadline. TSMC (2330.TT) intends to subscribe to $100M of shares in ARM's IPO; Intel (INTC) is to sell a 10% stake in its IMS Nanofabrication business to TSMC for $430M. Qantas Airways (QAN.AU) lost a high court appeal over previous ruling that it had broken the law in firing more than 1.7K ground handlers during the pandemic. VinFast (VFS) says it wants to expand in seven more Asia markets including Indonesia where it will establish new factory.

  • Digest:

    • EU to launch probe into subsidies for Chinese EVs:

      • Hong Kong-listed auto makers down sharply in late trade Wednesday after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Brussels will launch anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs that are "distorting" EU market. FT said probe would constitute largest trade case launched by EU as it tries to prevent replay of what happened to its solar industry in early 2010s. Then photovoltaic manufacturers were undercut by cheap Chinese imports and went bankrupt. She said, "too often, EU companies excluded from foreign markets, and are victims of predatory practices." Added often firms undercut by competitors benefiting from huge state subsidies," warned global markets becoming flooded with cheaper Chinese EVs and described prices as "kept artificially low by huge state subsidies" (DeutscheWelle). Among stocks to decline in final half hour of trading, BYD (1211.HK) down around 3%; Xpeng (8868.HK), Li Auto (2015.HK) down 2%.

    • China GDP consensus forecasts downgraded further with no major stimulus expected:

      • Latest Reuters consensus poll found 2023 GDP growth expected at 5.0%, down from 5.5% in the July survey, with estimates ranging between 4.5%~5.5%. Momentum seen slowing further to 4.5% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025. Article noted that while nearly all economists lowered their growth outlook for this year and next compared with the previous survey, the magnitude of those cuts was still marginal, leaving room for more downgrades. Some cautioned the government's growth target of around 5% for this year could be missed as the drip-feed of policy stimulus would be insufficient. There were still some calls for more property market support, though 17 of 21 do not believe there will be an aggressive stimulus package. Strong majority said risks were skewed to the downside. Elsewhere, CPI forecasts were also revised down to 0.6% in 2023 (from 1.1%) and 1.9% in 2024 (from 2.1%). Despite low inflation, PBOC seen keeping rates on hold this year (contrasting with earlier predictions of policy rate and RRR cuts).

    • Japan cabinet reshuffle goes smoothly, but lack of major changes prompts doubts about impact:

      • Kyodo reported no surprises in the cabinet reshuffle, which were consistent with preceding leaks. Prime Minister Kishida retained Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, METI minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, and digital transformation minister Taro Kono, who will also add digital administrative reform to his portfolio. LDP executive committee unchanged with Vice President Taro Aso, Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi and policy research chief Koichi Hagiuda. One notable addition will be Yuko Obuchi as chair of LDP election strategy committee. Overall, there were 11 new appointments out of 19 ministries, including five women which matches a historical record. Despite efforts to refresh their image ahead of a potential snap election, political experts expressed doubts this will have much impact given key members were reappointed. Going forward, focus will turn to the promised economic package and issues related to the release of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

    • Offshore yuan funding costs surge in Hong Kong as PBOC ramp up defense:

      • Offshore yuan's borrowing costs in Hong Kong surged across curve this week as China ramps up fights against yuan bears after currency slumped toward record low (Bloomberg). Yuan's 3-m HIBOR rose to 4.23% Wednesday, highest since 2018, while 1-m rate climbed to 4.6% and overnight rate rose beyond 5% for first time since Apr-22. Recall PBOC delivered a strong verbal warning against speculation Monday. Bank also planned to issue more yuan-denominated bills than maturing in Hong Kong next week, which will pressure borrowing costs amid already tight liquidity running up to quarter-end. Noted reputational costs are high from engineering a liquidity crunch as hurting offshore yuan image as more liberalized version and Hong Kong's status as Asia's financial hub. SCMP noted more global fund managers expect yuan to slide further in next three months in a BofA survery amid skepticism on effectiveness of piecemeal stimulus measures. Monetary policy divergence with US also reduces yuan's attractiveness versus high-yielding dollar.

    • South Korea regulators tighten loan criteria as household debt jumps again:

      • South Korea financial authorities will tighten some loan regulations as rising mortgage demand drove household borrowing up by largest amount in two years. BOK data showed August household borrowing at KRW1,075B ($811B), up KRW6.9T m/m, biggest single monthly hike since Jul-21. Financial services commission said it would introduce measures to curb long-term mortgage loans, have stricter debt-to-service ratios for loans on floating rates, tighten qualification criteria for government-backed temporary policy mortgage loans (Reuters). Country's mortgage loans grew KRW7T in August, biggest rise since Feb-20 (Yonhap). BOK said last month bank would use rate hikes only as secondary option for dealing with household debt. Separately Wednesday, government data showed country's unemployment reached fresh record low of 2.0% in August but job additions totalled just 211K, lowest addition in 29 months. Services added most new jobs while manufacturing lose around 69K.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +4.5% 3038.JP (Kobe Bussan): reports 9M revenue ¥338.77B vs year-ago ¥300.02B, operating income ¥23.28B vs year-ago ¥21.85B

      • +3.7% 2007.HK (Country Garden Holdings): creditors reportedly agree to extend seventh Country Garden Holdings yuan-denominated bond

      • +3.0% 1098.HK (Road King Infrastructure): buys back 51% stake in JV with CIFI Holdings for CNY295M cash

      • +1.8% 670.HK (China Eastern Airlines): 53.0% holder CEA Holding to acquire CNY500M-1.0B (HK$544.6M-1.09B) of A, H shares in China Eastern Airlines

      • +0.4% 3436.JP (SUMCO): clarifies Nikkei report regarding expectations of decline in FY didn't refer to SUMCO's outlook

      • +0.3% 1717.HK (Ausnutria Dairy): chairman and CEO Yan Weibin resigns to devote more time to other businesses, effective today

      • +0.3% 1766.HK (CRRC Corp.): president Lou Qiliang resigns due to work adjustments, effective today

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -1.6% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): ARM Holdings IPO reportedly expected to price at minimum of $51/share, at at least top end of indicated $47-51/share price range

      • -0.6% 2330.TT (Taiwan Semiconductor): intends to subscribe to up to $100M worth of shares in ARM IPO; Intel to sell an 10% stake in the IMS Nanofabrication business to TSMC

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • September Reuters Tankan manufacturers' sentiment index +4 vs +12 in prior month

          • Service sector index +23 vs +32 in prior month

        • August CGPI +3.2% y/y vs consensus +3.3% and revised +3.4% in prior month

        • Q3 MOF BSI large manufacturing index 5.4 vs (0.4) in prior quarter

          • Large non-manufacturing index 6.0 vs 4.1 in prior quarter

          • Large all-industry index 5.8 vs 2.7 in prior quarter

      • South Korea August

        • Unemployment rate 2.4% vs consensus 2.9% and 2.8% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (69.85) or (0.21%) to 32706.52

      • Hang Seng: (16.67) or (0.09%) to 18009.22

      • Shanghai Composite: (13.99) or (0.45%) to 3123.07

      • Shenzhen Composite: (21.83) or (1.12%) to 1929.45

      • ASX200: (53.00) or (0.74%) to 7153.90

      • KOSPI: (1.88) or (0.07%) to 2534.70

      • SENSEX: 258.88 or +0.39% to 67480.01

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.19 or +0.13% to 147.2610

      • $-KRW: +2.01 or +0.15% to 1327.7500

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.19%) to 0.6415

      • $-INR: +0.06 or +0.08% to 82.9260

      • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.16%) to 7.2808

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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