Sep 13 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly lower Wednesday, but with the Stoxx Europe 600 off its worst levels. Italy bucked the trend, with the FTSE MIB closing up +0.2%. In the US, headline August CPI (as expected) saw largest monthly increase since June 2022; core a bit hotter than consensus. Following the report, yields jumped across the curve as print adds some more support for Fed's higher-for-longer stance, though unlikely to push Fed off September hold.
In European sector performance, there was a generally negative trend but Banks (SX7P) bucked the trend amid hawkish ECB source reports which suggest it expects Eurozone inflation to remain above 3% next year, indicating potential for more rate tightening on the horizon. Autos & Parts in the spotlight on unexpected news the EU will launch an investigation into Chinese electric vehicle (EV) subsidies with prices kept artificially low and highlighted it is a distorting market. Retail biggest sector decliner with focus on Zara owner Inditex (ITX.SM) which delivered H1 profit beat but stock under pressure on profit taking. In the energy sector, BP (BP.LN) was in the headlines as it announced yesterday (post market close) that Bernard Looney has resigned as CEO with immediate effect; Murray Auchincloss, the Company's CFO, will act as CEO on an interim basis. Tullow Oil (TLW.LN) shares slumped on back of earnings, while Hunting (HTG.LN) saw a positive reaction to its CMD update. In M&A news today, Hamburger Hafen und Logistik (HHFA.GR) rose as MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company made a €16.75 per A-Share offer; separately, Klaus-Michael Kühne is reportedly considerng counter offer for HHLA.
EU wind companies benefitting as European Union will put forward package of measures to support Europe's wind power industry as renewable energy companies struggle with challenges including inflation (Reuters, Bloomberg). EU Commission President von der Leyen promised to fast-track permitting even more, improve the auction systems across the EU, focus on skills, access to finance and stable supply chains. Vestas (VWS.DC), Nordex (NDX1.GR) up over 5% on the news.
The ONS UK monthly activity data for July showed the economy experienced the biggest contraction since December 2022, down 0.5% versus consensus for 0.2% drop and prior 0.5% expansion. All three of the main sectors of the economy saw no growth. However, in the three months to July, the economy expanded 0.2%, while on a y/y basis the economy was flat versus 0.4% consensus and prior 0.9% expansion. Weak data blamed in part on strikes and bad weather, though other forward-looking data has also shown loss of momentum in activity has carried through to September. UK data this week highlights difficult balancing act for BoE with slowdown in economy accelerating but wage growth remains elevated. Some thoughts that BoE may require economy to slow further in order to dampen inflation. Market pricing in 25-bp hike next week.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Media +0.73%, Banks +0.65%, Insurance +0.62%, Real Estate +0.45%, Autos & Parts +0.04%, Travel & Leisure +0.03%, Financial Svcs (0.05%), Utilities (0.17%), Basic Resources (0.24%)
Underperformers:
Retail (0.85%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.75%), Construct & Mtls (0.74%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.51%), Health Care (0.51%), Chemicals (0.43%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.37%), Energy(0.35%), Technology (0.33%), Consumer Products and Services (0.32%)
Macro:
ECB's crucial 2024 projection to put inflation above 3%, source says - Reuters
World Growth Outlook for 2024 Deteriorates as China Risks Rise - Fitch
Ursula von der Leyen lays out pro-business pitch ahead of EU elections - FT
EU risks trade war with China over electric vehicles - POLITICO
UK economy sees biggest contraction since December 2022, thanks to rain, strikes - FT, Bloomberg
Macron breaks protocol to host Starmer at Elysée - Telegraph
Sanchez's Premier Bid Is at Risk Over Catalan Language Demand - Bloomberg
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+49.0% HHFA.GR (Hamburger Hafen und Logistik €16.76, +5.66) -- MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company makes €16.75 per A-Share offer for company / Klaus-Michael Kühne considerng counter offer -FAZ
+13.5% OTB.LN (On The Beach Group £1.16, +0.14) -- FY trading update
+13.3% SG.IM (SAES Getters €33.10, +4.00) -- FTC closes investigation into SAES Getters' sale of its Nitinol business to Resonetics
+6.7% RDW.LN (Redrow £4.73, +0.32) -- FY earnings; Shore Capital Stockbrokers downgrade
+5.7% VRS.LN (Versarien £0.01, -0.00) -- awarded €415K grant from ICEX Trade and Investment
+5.3% NDX1.GR (Nordex €0.00, +0.57) -- Wind energy names higher as EU pledges further support for the sector:
+5.0% PVN.IM (Piovan €9.18, +0.46) -- H1 earnings
+4.5% AV.LN (Aviva £3.87, +0.17) -- to sell its 25.9% stake in Singlife joint venture to Sumitomo Life Insurance Company for £0.8B
+3.6% PHAR.LN (Pharos Energy £0.23, +0.01) -- H1 earnings
+2.9% MTX.GR (MTU Aero Engines €0.00, +4.90) -- maintains adjusted guidance figures for 2023 notwithstanding burdens from geared turbofan inspection program
+2.2% TMV.GR (TeamViewer €16.15, +0.35) -- to reduce scope of Manchester United partnership; positive effect oncompany's adjusted revenue EBITDA
+2.1% FSKRS.FH (Fiskars €16.76, +0.36) -- plans to simplify its organizational structure
+2.1% AC.FP (Accor €34.93, +0.72) -- long- and short-term issuer credit ratings upgraded to BBB- from BB+ at Standard & Poor's; Bernstein comments on S&P upgrade of company to investment grade
+1.9% SWEC.B.SS (Sweco SEK100.30, +1.90) -- initiated buy at DnB Markets
+1.3% CVSG.LN (CVS Group £15.10, +0.19) -- RBC Capital Markets upgrade
+0.6% POM.FP (Plastic Omnium €16.18, +0.10) -- contract
Trading Lower:
-12.2% AGFX.LN (Argentex Group £0.98, -0.14) -- H1 earnings
-9.2% HUM.LN (Hummingbird Resources £0.12, -0.01) -- issues 2023 updated company reserves and resources
-7.2% INTRUM.SS (Intrum SEK66.16, -5.00) -- CMD
-6.2% NCAB.SS (NCAB Group SEK57.90, -3.75) -- R12 Kapital set to divest its 11.4% stake in company
-5.2% SMS.LN (Smart Metering Systems £6.71, -0.35) -- Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. reduces stake in company from ~9.60% to ~5.00% -- filing
-4.9% TLW.LN (Tullow Oil £0.35, -0.02) -- H1 earnings
-4.4% ANP.LN (Anpario £2.06, -0.10) -- H1 earnings
-3.9% FDEV.LN (Frontier Developments £2.92, -0.12) -- FY earnings; Shore Capital Stockbrokers downgrade
-3.5% ALPH.LN (Alpha Group International £20.25, -0.75) -- H1 earnings
-2.7% KRX.ID (Kingspan Group €69.10, -1.88) -- notes recent speculation around company and Carlisle Companies Inc; JPMorgan downgrade
-1.7% MOR.GR (Morphosys €30.66, -0.51) -- receives US FDA fast track designation for Tulmimetostat in endometrial cancer
-1.1% FING.B.SS (Fingerprint Cards SEK1.12, -0.01) -- final outcome for fully guaranteed rights issue
-1.1% DSCV.LN (discoverIE Group £7.20, -0.08) -- acquiers of 2J Antennas Group
-1.1% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk DKK680.90, -7.80) -- conducts two-for-one stock split
-0.3% ITX.SM (Inditex €34.91, -0.09) -- H1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Sequana Medical (SEQUA.BB)
DACHs: AEVIS VICTORIA (AEVS.SW), DFV Deutsche Familienversicherung (DFV.GR)
France: Virbac (VIRP.FP), ESI Group (ESI.FP), Abivax (ABVX.FP), Savencia (SAVE.FP), Innate Pharma (IPH.FP), Forsee Power (FORSE.FP)
Nordics: ChemoMetec (CHEMM.DC), Flugger Group (FLUG.B.DC)
Southern Europe: SeSa (SES.IM), Italian Wine Brands (IWB.IM)
UK/Ireland: Renishaw (RSW.LN), THG (THG.LN), Spire Healthcare (SPI.LN), Kier Group (KIE.LN), Brooks MacDonald (BRK.LN), NCC Group (NCC.LN), MJ Gleeson (GLE.LN), M&C Saatchi (SAA.LN), Churchill China (CHH.LN), Keystone Law Group (KEYS.LN), Uniphar (UPR.ID), Glenveagh Properties (GVR.ID)
Trading Update: IG Group (IGG.LN), Trainline (TRN.LN), PharmaSGP (PSG.GR)
Data:
Economics:
UK Jul
Construction Output +2.8% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and prior +4.6%
Industrial Production +0.4% y/y vs consensus +0.5% and prior +0.7%
Trade Balance (£14.06B) vs consensus (£16.00B) and prior (£15.46B)
Eurozone Jul Industrial Production (2.2%) y/y vs consensus (0.3%) and prior revised (1.1%) from (1.2%); (1.1%) m/m vs consensus (0.7%) and prior revised +0.4% from +0.5%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 23): +$0.05 or +0.06% to $88.89
€-$ (0.0022) or (0.20%) to 1.0734
£-$ (0.0009) or (0.07%) to 1.2485
€-£ (0.0008) to 0.8601
S&P 500 +0.30%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +1.00%
DAX: +12.43%
CAC: +11.57%
MIB: +20.19%
Stoxx 600: +6.84%
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