Sep 14 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets are set for a higher open amidst mostly higher trading in Asia at this time. Greater China markets mixed with Country Garden under pressure in Hong Kong. Japan, Taiwan and Korean stocks outperforming. US equity futures higher with S&P up ~0.3%. Bonds firmer, with US 10-year yields ~3 bps lower at 4.23%. Dollar softer. Oil up. Gold steady. Industrial metals higher.
Attention firmly on ECB decision today. Market pricing in 25-bp hike after ECB source said new staff projections will show inflation to remain above 3% next year. However, ECB still seen close to or at the end of the tightening cycle with economic activity slowing rapidly. Very light macro calendar in Europe otherwise. Latest RICS updates showed UK house price falls to accelerate in coming months.
Trade tensions resurfacing after China Global Times editorial warned of retaliation against EU after it launched probe into Chinese subsidies for EVs. Adds to recent geopolitical friction over reports China expanded government ban on iPhones, which White House said appears to be a retaliatory move (Beijing earlier denied it had issued ban). Striking workers at Chevron's Australian LNG facilities threatening to escalate industrial action from today, risking disruption to exports. North Korea's Kim and Russia's Putin discuss possible military cooperation; Putin has also accepted offer to visit Pyongyang.
Light earnings and macro calendar for today.
Politics/Macro/World News
Finland Aug CPI +5.6% y/y vs cons +6.5% and prior +6.5%; (0.7%) m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior +0.5%
UK house price gauge hits 14-year low as interest rates weigh - Reuters, citing RICS
Gloom spreads through German manufacturing -- FT
Slovak election risks weakening west's support for Ukraine - FT
Kim and Putin discuss possible military cooperation - BBC
Top company news
Earnings/updates
IPH.FP (Innate Pharma) -- H1 net income €1.7M vs year-ago €6.3M
EXO.NA (EXOR) -- H1 net income €265M vs year-ago €2.16B
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- Aug sales €1.079B, +1.0% y/y in comparable terms
CHEMM.DC (ChemoMetec) -- FY EBITDA DKK251.0M vs FactSet DKK255.7M [1 est]; expects FY23/24 EBITDA DKK 200-220M vs FactSet DKK 282.5M
PSG.GR (PharmaSGP Holding) -- prelim H1 adjusted EBITDA €15.3M vs year-ago €12.1M
ALESK.FP (Esker) -- H1 net income €7.5M, (26%) vs year-ago €10.1M
LNA.FP (LNA Santé) -- H1 net income €11.9M, (12%) vs year-ago €13.5M
AEVS.SW (AEVIS VICTORIA) -- H1 net income (CHF10.2M) vs year-ago CHF47.2M
ICEAIR.IR (Icelandair Group) -- guides FY revenue ~$1.5B vs year-ago $1.27B
CLXN.SW (Crealogix Holding) -- FY EPS CHF3.22 ex-items vs year-ago (CHF8.76)
SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical) -- H1 net income (€16.5M) vs year-ago (€14.9M)
M&A
ROO.LN (Deliveroo) -- is reportedly speaking to advisors about defense strategies after activist Sachem Head Capital Management built a stake in the company - Bloomberg
NWG.SS (Nordic Waterproofing Holding) -- Kingspan Holdings acquires additional 1.6M shares in Nordic Waterproofing; to launch mandatory public offer for remaining shares
TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- Guyana said to have received bids for eight blocks offshore from bidders including Exxon (XOM), Hess (HES), and TotalEnergies -- Reuters
ECV.GR (Encavis AG) -- acquires minority stake in TokWise; terms undisclosed
MDF.SM (Duro Felguera) -- Indra (IDR.SM) in advanced talks to acquire Epicom from Duro Felguera - Cinco Dias, citing source
Healthcare
Other
BP.LN (BP) -- BP's interim CEO Murray Auchincloss unlikely to transition to permanent role - Reuters, citing company sources
LOGN.SW (Logitech International) -- shareholders approve dividend of CHF 1.06 per share (vs prior CHF 0.96)
LLOY.LN (Lloyds Banking Group) -- Viking Global Investors shorting Lloyds Banking Group on concerns about outlook for the lender's mortgage business - Bloomberg, citing sources
CRDA.LN (Croda International) -- Danuta Gray said to be on the brink of being named chair of Croda International - Mark Kleinman in City AM column
TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- announces oil project of 200,000B/d in Block 58 offshore Suriname and launches development studies with objective of sanctioning the project end 2024
XVIVO.SS (Xvivo Perfusion) -- XVIVO carries out SEK440M directed share issue; 1.6M shares at a subscription price of SEK275/sh through Carnegie and DNB
EXO.NA (EXOR) -- launches up to €750M tender offer launch
TMV.GR (TeamViewer) -- Activist Petrus Advisers says it welcomes today's announcement by TeamViewer to terminate front of shirt sponsor partnership with Manchester United early
IVG.IM (Iveco Group) -- announces Anna Tanganelli as its new CFO
AUTN.SW (Autoneum Holding) --to launch up-to-1.2M-share one-for-four capital increase at CHF90.75/sh
Puig hires Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for potential IPO in 2024 - Expansion, citing sources
Wind energy names higher as EU pledges further support for the sector
Key rating changes
Upgrades
RIO.LN (Rio Tinto) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
EN.FP (Bouygues) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
CPR.IM (Davide Campari-Milano) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
FABG.SS (Fabege) -- to buy from hold at SEB
KPN.NA (Royal KPN) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
NESTE.FH (Neste) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
VIS.SM (Viscofan) -- to buy from hold at Mirabaud
VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
Downgrades
BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke) -- to underweight from equal weight at Barclays
RI.FP (Pernod Ricard) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane; to underweight from overweight at Barclays
RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau) -- to underweight from overweight at Barclays
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
LXS.GR (Lanxess) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
ALBPS.FP (Biophytis) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
S32.LN (South32) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
Initiations
EN.FP (Bouygues) -- hold at Stifel
VOLV.B.SS (Volvo) -- buy at Societe Generale
NTG.DC (NTG Nordic Transport Group) -- buy at DnB Markets
Data
Nikkei +1.56% to 33215.38
Hang Seng +0.20% to 18044.40
Shanghai Composite +0.04% to 3124.26
S&P futures +12.3 vs prior close of 4517.5
€-$ +0.0017 or +0.16% to 1.0749
$-¥ (0.35) or (0.24%) to 147.12
€-¥ (0.11) or (0.07%) to 158.13
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