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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.10%, Hang Seng +0.75%, Shanghai Composite (0.28%) as of 04:10 ET

Sep 15 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mostly higher Friday. Gains led by China-trade related and technology heavy bourses with Australia, South Korea and Taiwan all seeing solid returns. An uneven day in Greater China despite better-than-expected economic activity data, Hong Kong ended higher but well off its peaks while mainland bourses closed in the red. Japan equities ended at six-week highs. Southeast Asia mixed as dollar-exposed bourses dip, India's Sensex at fresh record high. US futures tacking higher, European markets off to a strong start on expectations the ECB has reached peak rates. US dollar off its highs of last night, AUD, NZD and yuan all strengthening, yen weaker. Treasury yields higher at the short end of the curve, lower at the long; China 10Y yield higher. Crude prices surging with WTI back above $90/bl, precious metals higher on overnight dollar move, industrial metals higher on hopes of China economic recovery.

    • Solid follow through from US moves overnight, which saw the Nasdaq surge on Arm Holding's successful listing and a return of risk-on sentiment. Technology stocks and benchmarks in Asia outperforming as well as those exposed to China, which this morning published better-than-forecast economic data. Some caution in the afternoon session in Hong Kong with stocks coming off their peaks and mainland markets dipping into the red but early reads of the data reflect the data represents a positive step, albeit with continued warnings over the real estate sector.

    • The data showed industrial production and retail sales growth above forecasts while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. But fixed asset investment growth fell, dragged by a steeper decline in real estate investment. Other housing metrics also disappointed in a sign property support measures are yet to show up in monthly data in any meaningful way. The PBOC also cut banks' RRR by 25 bp, unleashing around CNY500B in liquidity, and injected net CNY191B in MLF operations while keeping the rate unchanged.

    • Away from Arm's listing, traders largely shrugged off US retail sales data and initial jobs claims that were stronger than expected as well as a PPI print that was higher than forecast. They all leant into the soft-landing scenario but also one that could see the Fed hike one more time, especially with oil prices moving higher. Nevertheless, fed fund futures now show just a 32% chance of a hike in November, down from 42% yesterday. The economic data had little negative effect on equities but the dollar bounced back overnight, placing pressure on Asia currencies just as they received a boost from China economic data.

    • Softbank's (9984.JP) Arm unit debuted on New York's Nasdaq exchange, stock rose almost 25% in first day. Country Garden (2007.HK) postponed a bond payment extension vote until Monday. Sino-Ocean (3377.HK) suspended payment on all its offshore borrowings, citing tight liquidity. TSMC (2330.TT) has told its major suppliers to delay delivery of high-end chipmaking equipment as it grows nervous about customer demand. Australia's regulator will deny Qantas (QAN.AU) and China Eastern Airlines (600115.CH) permission to coordinate operations between Australia and China. TotalEnergies (TTEF.FP) may invest in Adani Green Energy (541450.IN).

  • Digest:

    • China activity data mostly beat:

      • Industrial production rose 4.5% y/y in August, above consensus 3.9%. Follows 3.7% in the previous month, marking the strongest since April. NBS highlighted acceleration in tech products. Solar cells and service robots surged. Strong growth also in integrated circuits. Autos edged higher, though EVs still up double digits. Smartphones also marginally up, while PCs declined. Retail sales also picked up to 4.6% vs consensus 3.0% and prior month's 2.5%. Still underpinned by strong catering though most categories were positive, including autos and communication equipment. The only downside came in fixed asset investment, up 3.2% YTD slightly below consensus 3.3% and prior 3.4%. Infrastructure rose 6.4%, slowing from 6.8% in Jan-Jul. Real estate declines deepened further to 8.8% from 8.5%, reflecting ongoing moderate deterioration in commercial housing sales. New construction starts remained in deep contraction. Unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 5.2% from 5.3%. Elsewhere, NBS reported service sector activity accelerated 1.1 ppt to 6.8% y/y.

    • China August new house prices fall at steepest pace in ten months:

      • China's new house prices fell 0.3% m/m in August, steepest pace in ten months and came after a 0.2% decline in July, according to Reuters calculations based on NBS data. Prices were 0.1% lower y/y, after same decline in July. Noted authorities have recently unveiled raft of support measures to bolster home buying sentiment, which have given top-tier cities a boost in new home sales, but Bloomberg noted surge could be already fading less than two weeks after mortgage restrictions eased. China's property sector seen as top credit risk in BofA survey (FT) and Moody's cut sector outlook from "stable" to "negative", citing economic growth challenges. Closely watched private developer Country Garden (2007.HK) delayed deadline for creditors to vote on its request to extend payment on its eighth onshore bond to Monday (Bloomberg) and state-linked developer Sino-Ocean (3377.HK) has suspended payment on all its offshore debt payments citing tight liquidity (Bloomberg).

    • PBOC cuts RRR, follows up with large MLF injection:

      • PBOC announced a 25 bp RRR cut effective Friday for all banks, except those that have implemented a 5% reserve ratio. Brief statement reiterated adherence to central government guidelines to maintain reasonable credit growth. Money supply and social financing remains tied to nominal GDP growth. Remains committed to better support key areas and weak links, maintain FX stability and support the real economy. Xinhua cited PBOC official stating rate cut expected to release more than CNY500B ($70B) in liquidity, equivalent to the prior 25 bp cut in March. Given weighted average RRR for financial institutions projected to be around 7.4%, China Minsheng Bank chief economist Wen Bin noted the lower bound is 5%, leaving "significant room" for further adjustments. Attention turned to today's MLF operation which was CNY591B in size above the CNY400B rollover amount while rate was kept at 2.50%, in line with expectations in the Reuters consensus poll. Supplemented again with gross injections of CNY105B in 7-day and CNY34B in 14-day OMOs with the latter rate cut 20 bp to 1.95%.

    • Arm soars on debut in boon for SoftBank and IPOs:

      • ARM rose 25% on the first day of trading, translating to market cap of more than $65B and grows SoftBank's (9984.JP) stake by about $12B (Bloomberg). Article reported in a final meeting Wednesday, some bankers and executives made the case for pricing the shares above the marketed range but Masayoshi Son said it wasn't worth risking a healthy debut for $100M or so in additional proceeds. Reuters cited market participants' views that Arm's strong performance suggests IPO appetite may be on the rebound. Articles flagged potential tailwind for upcoming offerings -- Instacart, Klaviyo, Birkenstock -- and if these succeed, bankers and analysts believe they will likely trigger a wave of IPOs next year. Bloomberg also reported strong demand among retail investors. Cited Fidelity's trading platform where Arm saw the most buy orders Thursday, well above interest in retail favorites such as Tesla and Nvidia. Still, takeaways reiterated some concerns about the current sluggish chip market and IPO performance beyond Day One.

    • Iron ore scales five-month high as China property downturn continues:

      • Iron ore extending gains after spot price rose to five month high. Strength contrasts with weak China fundamentals after data showed crude steel output fell 5% m/m in August, surprising some China-based analysts. China's property sector, which accounts for estimated 40% of nation's steel output, continues to go backward with real estate investment and new construction starts shrinking at a faster pace in August. Iron ore upside instead attributed to positive sentiment surrounding latest China property rescue measures. Steel mills expected to boost output as China enters peak construction season. Three-year low in port iron ore inventories also seen incentivizing restocking activity among steel mills and traders. However, iron ore bears see downside risks from a weaker-than-expected construction season, failure of property support measures to revive real estate activity, and government directive to cap steel output.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +10.9% 558.HK (L.K. Technology Holdings): unit Shenzhen LK places 9.5-12% stake to Future Industry Investment Fund to raise CNY1.50B

      • +5.1% 7259.JP (Aisin Corp.): issues medium-term management plan for FY25-30

      • +2.1% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): ARM Holdings IPO opens at $56.10 on the Nasdaq; SoftBank reportedly considers Arm to be its most important unit; plans to hold stock for long term

      • +2.1% 402340.KS (SK Square Co.): Alibaba reportedly considering acquiring 11Street as Qoo10 and Amazon are no longer interested in deal

      • +2.1% 5232.JP (Sumitomo Osaka Cement Co.): reportedly to double production capacity for semiconductor parts by 2030

      • +0.2% 000660.KS (SK Hynix): Huawei's Mate 60 phones reportedly use SK Hynix's old memory technology

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -12.1% 3377.HK (Sino-Ocean Group Holdings): suspends payments on all offshore debts, effective 15-Sep

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China August

        • Industrial production +4.5% y/y vs consensus +3.9% and +3.7% in prior month

          • Retail sales +4.6% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +2.5% in prior month

          • Fixed asset investment (YTD) +3.2% vs consensus +3.3% y/y vs +3.4% in prior month

          • Unemployment rate 5.2% vs consensus 5.3% and 5.3% in prior month

        • New house prices (0.3%) m/m vs (0.2%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 364.99 or +1.10% to 33533.09

      • Hang Seng: 134.97 or +0.75% to 18182.89

      • Shanghai Composite: (8.81) or (0.28%) to 3117.74

      • Shenzhen Composite: (5.90) or (0.31%) to 1911.12

      • ASX200: 92.50 or +1.29% to 7279.00

      • KOSPI: 28.39 or +1.10% to 2601.28

      • SENSEX: 237.54 or +0.35% to 67756.54

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.23 or +0.16% to 147.7070

      • $-KRW: (3.66) or (0.28%) to 1326.3800

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.27% to 0.6458

      • $-INR: (0.07) or (0.08%) to 83.0370

      • $-CNY: (0.02) or (0.32%) to 7.2536

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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