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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.50% to 7711.38, DAX +0.56% to 15893.53, CAC40 +0.96% to 7378.82, STOXX 600 +0.23% to 461.93

Sep 15 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended the session higher but off best levels. France +1.0% leads outperformers with Netherlands (0.4%) bucking the firmer trend. In sectors, personal goods and miners gain whilst real estate and tech outsized laggards.

    • Risk appetite positive after better China activity data and China stepping up policy support measures after PBOC cut bank RRR by 25 bp Thursday. In addition, ECB hiked rates by 25 bps but gave strong hint it is likely to be last hike in cycle, with statement signaling rates now at sufficiently restrictive levels. Markets pricing in first rate cut by June 2024. FT reported ECB hawks warn of December rate hike if inflation and wages stay.

    • Focus in France as finance minister Le Maire said on Thursday that the government aims at €16B in savings after cutting its growth outlook. The economy is forecast to grow 1.4% next year, down from 1.6%. Le Maire highlighted Germany's recession, China's difficulties and high-interest rates as headwinds to growth. He expects inflation to ease from 4.9% this year to 2.6% in 2024. Le Maire said €10B of the savings will come from scrapping caps on power and gas prices but also ruled out a big jump in power prices in early 2024, Bloomberg reports. The rest of the savings will come from €4.5B reduction in state aid, as well as lower spending on labor market support measures and unemployment benefits. France has focused on bringing its debt levels down after a warning in the summer by the French Court of Auditors that it was too high, which saw Le Maire announce the aim of bringing the deficit below 3% of the GDP threshold by 2027.

    • On the macro-calendar, France Aug CPI final revised upward +4.9% y/y vs. preliminary +4.8% whilst Italy Aug final CPI final softer +5.4% vs prelim +5.5%; elsewhere, Italy trade surplus recorded at in July €6.38B vs consensus €6.4B and prior €7.72B whilst Eurozone Jul trade balance came at €6.5B well below expectations €20.0B and prior €23.0B.

    • On the earnings front, DACHs companies kicked off the session with Lenzing (LNZ.AV), Wüstenrot & Württembergische (WUW.GR) reporting H1/FY earnings. In Nordics, Sydbank (SYDB.DC), AddLife (ALIF.B.SS) and H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS) updated investors with their latest numbers.

    • In M&A, Reuters reported that Societe Generale (GLE.FP) is open to selling non-core Equipment Finance business. People familiar with the company say that the unit could be sold as the company moves forward with a broad strategic overhaul. However, a deal might take time due to the impact of challenging market conditions on the business's valuation. In Norway, the Norwegian Competition Authority notified Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO) that it will continue its review of its proposed acquisition of Widerøe by Norwegian.

    • Looking ahead to next week EU econ-calendar, focus will be on policy decisions from SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank and BOE and Flash Sep Manufacturing and Services PMI releases for Eurozone, Germany, UK and France.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Persnl & HHold Goods +1.42%, Autos & Parts +1.31%, Basic Resources +1.25%, Chemicals +1.15%, Travel & Leisure +0.85%, Construct & Mtls +0.79%, Media +0.73%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.67%, Insurance +0.33%

      • Underperformers

        • Real Estate(1.70%), Technology (1.33%), Retail (0.38%), Telecom (0.20%), Banks (0.13%), Utilities (0.10%), Oil & Gas (0.10%), Health Care +0.00%, Food & Beverage +0.07%, Financial Svcs +0.10%

    • Macro:

      • Central banks:

        • ECB policymakers push back on rate cut expectations -- Reuters

        • Vasle Says More ECB Hikes Not Excluded, December Meeting Key -- Bloomberg

        • Public confidence in Bank of England's inflation strategy hits record low -- FT

      • EU:

        • Most EU states didn't resettle a single refugee in 2023 -- euobserver

        • Europe's Green Deal is something between a mirage and almighty mess -- Telegraph

        • Why Brussels wants Mario Draghi to fix the EU's competitiveness woes -- FT

        • Italy industry lobby says EU needs sovereign funds, stronger budget -- Reuters

        • Germany's Lindner blasts EU over 'enormously dangerous' green plans -- Politico

      • UK:

        • Welsh steel's future secured as UK Government and Tata Steel announce Port Talbot green transition proposal -- Gov.UK

      • Germany:

        • From economy to energy: how Germany became the sick man of Europe -- Times

        • The end of Germany's China illusion -- ECFR

      • France:

      • Italy:

        • Italy posts sixth straight monthly trade surplus as oil, gas imports shrink -- Reuters

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +11.2% GAW.LN (Games Workshop Group £112.00, +11.60) -- 3M trading update

        • +7.5% BYW6.GR (BayWa €34.65, +2.40) -- initiated add at Baader Helvea

        • +6.1% VITR.SS (Vitrolife SEK147.60, +8.40) -- Handelsbanken upgrade

        • +5.2% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €1.26, +0.06) -- Van Lanschot Kempen upgrade

        • +4.4% VSCA.GR (4SC €9.00, +0.40) -- RESMAIN study data oral presentation

        • +3.6% SKA.B.SS (Skanska SEK176.55, +6.25) -- initiated buy at Nordea

        • +3.4% TEL.NO (Telenor NOK117.75, +3.95) -- initiated buy at SEB; Barclays upgrade

        • +3.4% MOR.GR (Morphosys €31.92, +1.00) -- Goldman Sachs upgrade

        • +3.0% ALIF.B.SS (AddLife SEK72.50, +2.00) -- reiterates financial target at CMD

        • +1.6% TEL2.B.SS (Tele2 SEK81.98, +1.24) -- SEB Enskilda upgrade

        • +1.4% PDL.LN (Petra Diamonds £0.68, +0.01) -- FY earnings

        • +1.4% LR.FP (Legrand €88.58, +1.18) -- third share buyback tranche for up to €90M

      • Notable Decliners

        • -7.9% LNZ.AV (Lenzing €38.20, -3.30) -- lowers FY EBITDA guidance

        • -7.4% HM.B.SS (H&M Hennes & Mauritz SEK165.12, -12.72) -- prelim Q3 revenue

        • -6.9% ENSU.NO (Ensurge Micropower NOK0.12, -0.01) -- "

        • -6.5% ASM.NA (ASM International €397.50, -26.95) -- UBS downgrade

        • -5.9% BITTI.FH (Bittium €0.00, -0.24) -- lowers FY outlook

        • -3.2% NOG.LN (Nostrum Oil & Gas £0.12, -0.00) -- initiated hold at Canaccord Genuity

        • -2.2% HBH.GR (Hornbach Holding €0.00, -1.50) -- prelim. Q2 earnings

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • France: Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies (ALHGR.FP), Adocia (ADOC.FP), StreamWIDE (ALTSW.FP)

        • UK: Phoenix Group (PHNX.LN), S4 Capital (SFOR.LN), City of London Investment (CLIG.LN), Futura Medical (FUM.LN), Shanta Gold Ltd. (SHG.LN), The Artisanal Spirits Co. (ART.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Eurozone Jul Trade Balance €6.5B vs consensus €20.0B and prior €23.0B

      • Italy

        • Italy Aug CPI +5.4% y/y vs preliminary +5.5%; +0.3% m/m vs preliminary +0.4%

        • Jul Trade Balance €6.38B vs consensus €6.4B and prior €7.72B

      • France Aug CPI +4.9% y/y vs preliminary +4.8%; +1.0% m/m vs preliminary +1.0%

      • Norway Aug Trade Balance NOK61.4B vs consensus NOK70.0B and prior revised NOK61.6B from NOK61.3B

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (23-Oct): +$0.48 or +0.53% to $90.64

      • €-$ +0.0023 or +0.22% to 1.0668

      • £-$ (0.0016) or (0.13%) to 1.2392

      • €-£ +0.0032 to 0.8608

      • S&P 500 (0.89%)

      • Performance year-to-date:

        • FTSE 100: +3.48%

        • DAX: +14.15%

        • CAC: +13.98%

        • MIB: +21.85%

        • Stoxx 600: +8.72%

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