Sep 15 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets indicated higher, amid positive ripples from Asia-Pacific region. Hang Seng leading China markets higher following latest activity data (China industrial production and retail sales growth topped forecasts and unemployment rate unexpectedly declined). Other markets making new highs with miners driving ASX's outperformance. Iron ore scales five-month high.
ARM rose 25% on the first day of trading, translating to market cap of more than $65B Reuters and FT cited market participants' views that Arm's strong performance suggests IPO appetite may be on the rebound. Articles flagged potential tailwind for upcoming offerings -- Instacart, Klaviyo, Birkenstock -- and if these succeed, bankers and analysts believe they will likely trigger a wave of IPOs next year
European macro data releases include France Aug final CPI, Italy Aug final CPI, Jun trade balance, Norway Aug trade balance, Eurozone Jul trade balance, Austria Aug final CPI
Also on today's agenda: Eurogroup meeting, ECB's Lagarde press conf following meeting at 11:45CET and informal ECOFIN meeting (through Sat), Lagarde also attending. ECB's Fernandez-Bollo chairing panel at 9:10CET at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum. BoE's Inflation Attitudes Survey at 9:30BST. Bank of Portugal releases its latest Official Bulletin. Bank of Finland's latest economic forecast. EU's Hahn delivers a keynote speech at 10:00CET at the Skopje Economic and Finance Forum 2023. Greece's PM Mitsotakis hosts EU's Kyriakides.
Also of note, Novartis (NOVN.SW) shareholders vote on Sandoz spin-off and Volkswagen Group (VOW.GR) monthly deliveries. H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS) reports Q3 Sales today, with consensus looking for sales SEK63.77B, growth, local FX +4.5%. Lenzing (LNZ.AV) guides FY EBITDA €270-330M vs prior guidance €320-420M and FactSet €318.93M
Sovereign credit rating reviews due after the close Fri include DBRS (Netherlands), Fitch (Germany, Malta), Moody's (Greece, Luxembourg), S&P (Belgium, Spain)
Macro/politics
Top company news
Earnings/updates
LNZ.AV (Lenzing) -- guides FY EBITDA €270-330M vs prior guidance €320-420M and FactSet €318.93M
ESI.FP (ESI Group) -- reports H1 net income €5.7M vs year-ago €13.9M
Also reporting today
Earnings: Wustenrot & Wurttembergische (WUW.GR), Ringmetall (HP3A.GR), Havila Kystruten (HKY.NO)
Trading Update: H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS)
CMD/events: AddLife (ALIF.B.SS)
M&A
GLE.FP (Societe Generale) -- open to selling non-core Equipment Finance business - Reuters
RHC.AU (Ramsay Health Care) -- EQT Group in the mix for Ramsays' Asian hospital business - The Australian
RHC.AU (Ramsay Health Care) -- provides update on sale of Ramsay Sime Darby JV, to announce outcome before AGM
(OTHER) COFB.BB (Cofinimmo) -- becomes majority shareholder in a property company created by the French Red Cross; represents an investment of €13M
Healthcare
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- presents data from Phase III NATALEE trial at ESMO Virtual Plenary
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- plans to cut management jobs -- Reuters
Other
BP.LN (BP) -- chair Helge Lund rules himself out of running to become CEO - FT
HEIA.NA (Heineken) -- to invest €430M for new brewery in Yucatán
LR.FP (Legrand) -- signs contract to implement a third share buyback tranche for up to €90M
SIKA.SW (Sika Group) -- Sika announces Chair Paul Hälg to step down; Thierry F. J. Vanlancker proposed as new Chair
AF.FP (Air France-KLM) -- commences formal process to replace aging widebody aircraft in favour of more fuel-efficient widebody jets - Bloomberg
OCI.NA (OCI NV) -- to double green methanol capacity at Texas facility to 400K metric tons/year
FGR.FP (Eiffage) -- and Enshore Subsea signed an EPCI contract with MCA-Sénégal II for the design, manufacture and installation of undersea electrical cables in Dakar, with a total value of $205M
Petrobras signs MoU with TotalEnergies and Casa dos Ventos to evaluate renewable energy projects in Brazil
Key rating changes
Upgrades
TEL.NO (Telenor) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
DLN.LN (Derwent London) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
GPE.LN (Great Portland Estates) -- to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs
MOR.GR (Morphosys) -- to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs
ISP.IM (Intesa Sanpaolo) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- to buy from sell at SEB
VITR.SS (Vitrolife) -- Vitrolife short-term recommendation upgraded to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
ANDR.AV (Andritz) -- to buy from accumulate at Erste Group
Downgrades
TELIA.SS (Telia) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
MB.IM (Mediobanca) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
Initiations
UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment) -- equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
ATCO.B.SS (Atlas Copco) -- outperform at Oddo
SKA.B.SS (Skanska) -- buy at Nordea
ABI.BB (Anheuser-Busch InBev) -- outperform at TD Cowen
NICL.LN (Nichols) -- hold at Peel Hunt
TEL.NO (Telenor) -- buy at SEB
Data
Nikkei +1.18% to 33559.18
Hang Seng +1.07% to 18240.60
Shanghai Composite (0.37%) to 3115.05
S&P futures +8.5 vs prior close of 4555.0
€-$ +0.0008 or +0.08% to 1.0653
$-¥ (0.05) or (0.03%) to 147.43
€-¥ +0.11 or +0.07% to 157.06
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