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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.69%) to 7678.62, DAX (1.33%) to 15571.86, CAC40 (1.59%) to 7213.90, STOXX 600 (1.30%) to 454.67

Sep 21 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed broadly lower with focus on latest central bank newsflow from around the world.

    • Denmark (2.3%), Italy (1.8%), France (1.6%) among the worst regional performers.

    • In the US, Fed meeting and updated projections triggering hawkish reaction on markets. FOMC maintained median 2023 projection of one more 2023 rate hike, but larger-than-expected upward revision to 2024 median underscored central bank's higher-for-longer message. Fed Chair Powell said stronger economic activity means it may have to do more with rates. However, market still expects more dovish rate path than Fed, pricing in 37% probability of another rate hike and end-2024 funds rate of ~4.8%.

    • In the UK, the BoE MPC voted 5-4 to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%. Bailey had the casting vote after deputy Cunliffe, external members Greene, Haskel and Mann backed a 25 bp increase. Policymakers voted unanimously for rate of QT to increase from £80B this year to £100B over the next twelve months, which was at the top end of forecasts. As expected, the BoE left the door open to further tightening if needed and highlighted policy will be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long.

    • Elsewhere in Europe, defying expectations for a final 25bp rate hike, the SNB maintained its key policy rate at 1.75%, marking the first time it has not hiked rates since March 2022. In its monetary statement, the SNB said significant tightening of monetary policy over recent quarters is countering remaining inflationary pressure but stressed that additional hikes in interest rates are still possible if it becomes clear they are necessary to maintain the medium-turn stability in prices. Over in Sweden, the Riksbank hiked the policy rate as expected by 25bp to 4.00%. The rate path was revised higher to imply a peak at 4.10% vs prior 4.05%. The bank kept the door open for an additional rate hike in November, again as expected by most analysts. The bank will also start to hedge the FX reserve, which could give SEK some much needed support. The Norges Bank hiked the Deposit Rate by 25bps to 4.25% as expected and flagged one more hike likely required in December. This represented slight surprise as analysts saw 4.25% as peak-rate. Norges Bank delivered significant upward adjustment of rate path, based mainly on much higher 2024 CPI projection, due to higher wage growth. The bank suggested the tight policy stance will be kept for some time ahead as somewhat high interest rates seen required to bring inflation down to target within reasonable horizon. Data dependency stance reiterated.

    • Among European sectors today, Retail bucked the generally negative trend, with a number of UK retailers having posted well-received earnings/updates: Next (NXT.LN) H1 results were better than consensus across the board and it has also upgraded FY guidance. DFS Furniture (DFS.LN) reported prelim FY earnings broadly in line with guidance and consensus; guides FY24 underlying PBTa to see low single digit year on year improvement (range £30M-£35M). JD Sports (JD.LN) shares advanced after its H1 results. Analysts at UBS commented on JD results, saying "Given the concerns from investors in terms of US retailer read across reflected in the shares we expect the update to be seen reassuring and hence a positive". Frasers Group (FRAS.LN) announced a new £80M share buyback programme. Travel & Leisure was the main underperformer, with Restaurants & Bars dragged lower by SSP Group (SSPG.LN) following its FY trading update.

    • In energy markets, focus on news Russia has temporarily banned exports of gasoline and diesel to all countries outside a circle of four ex-Soviet states with immediate effect in order to stabilize the domestic market. The ban will take effect 21-September with no end date provided. The FT notes diesel prices in Europe jumped after the announcement on Thursday, rising almost 5 per cent to above $1,010 a tonne.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Retail +0.01%, Banks (0.17%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.53%), Energy(0.61%), Insurance (0.62%), Telecom (0.69%), Media (0.93%), Real Estate (1.23%)

      • Underperformers:

        • Travel & Leisure (3.15%), Basic Resources (2.69%), Chemicals (2.12%), Consumer Products and Services (1.86%), Health Care (1.81%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.77%), Financial Svcs (1.72%), Utilities (1.72%), Autos & Parts (1.65%), Construct & Mtls (1.62%), Technology (1.31%)

    • Macro:

      • Central banks

        • Europe's currencies feel fresh pain as central bank support fades - Reuters

        • UK mortgage rates set to fall after Bank of England knife-edge vote - FT

        • Riksbank's half-hawkish hike leaves the krona vulnerable - ING Think

        • SNB's 'War on Inflation' Is Not Yet Over, President Jordan Says - Bloomberg

        • Turkey's central bank hikes interest rate to 30% - CNBC

        • ECB's Nagel says inflation not falling at desired pace - Reuters

        • ECB's Stournaras warns of monetary policy overreaction - Boersen-Zeitung

      • Energy

        • Russia Temporarily Bans Diesel Exports; European Prices Jump - Bloomberg

        • Russia puts squeeze on oil market with diesel export ban - FT

      • UK

        • UK public borrowing lower than expected in August - Times

      • Italy

        • Govt to present roadmap for possible return to nuclear -- ANSA

        • Govt to sign anti-inflation pact with business on Sept 28 - ANSA

      • Finland

        • Finland Set for Weeks of Strikes as Unions Rise Up Against Cuts - Bloomberg

      • Portugal

        • Portugal approves 30% cut in benchmark rates on mortgages - Reuters

    • Company news:

      • Notable gainers

        • +11.2% AZT.NO (ArcticZymes Technologies NOK32.80, +3.25) -- FDA filing and update

        • +9.2% JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion £1.43, +0.12) -- H1 earnings

        • +7.3% IVA.FP (Inventiva €4.52, +0.27) -- licensing agreement

        • +6.4% CVSG.LN (CVS Group £15.49, +0.96) -- FY earnings

        • +6.2% CINIS.SS (Cinis Fertilizer SEK37.65, +2.25) -- agreement

        • +6.2% DFS.LN (DFS Furniture £1.14, +0.07) -- FY prelim

        • +5.3% ALREW.FP (ReWorld Media €3.30, +0.18) -- H1 earnings

        • +4.2% SBO.NO (Selvaag Bolig NOK30.40, +1.20) -- buyback

        • +3.9% EXM.BB (Exmar NV €11.00, +0.42) -- to examine Saverex NV's request to convene EGM and special general meeting

        • +3.5% ELIMP.NO (Elektroimport+â-+ren NOK13.50, +0.45) -- DnB Markets upgrade

        • +3.2% NXT.LN (Next £72.58, +2.24) -- H1 earnings

        • +3.0% IMMU.SS (Mendus SEK0.44, +0.01) -- presents new data at CICON23

        • +1.6% FSECURE.FH (F-Secure €1.83, +0.03) -- Inderes upgrade

        • +1.5% BAI.NA (BenevolentAI €0.91, +0.02) -- H1 earnings; CEO steps down

      • Notable decliners

        • -38.3% KETL.LN (Strix Group £0.57, -0.35) -- H1 earnings

        • -20.0% JAY.LN (Bluejay Mining £0.01, -0.00) -- Dundas Ilmenite Project does not present a viable commercial development opportunity

        • -19.8% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £7.58, -1.60) -- BNP Paribas downgrade

        • -18.3% ALKAL.FP (Kalray €20.70, -4.95) -- H1 earnings; Portzamparc downgrade

        • -12.8% ALPIX.FP (Pixium Vision €1.95, -0.25) -- completes 1-for-50 reverse stock split

        • -11.0% DUELL.FH (Duell Oyj €0.75, -0.09) -- Inderes, Evli Bank downgrades

        • -9.1% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €1.62, -0.15) -- updated 2024-2028 business plan

        • -8.1% SSPG.LN (SSP Group £2.30, -0.20) -- FY trading update

        • -6.7% GNFT.FP (GENFIT €3.39, -0.24) -- H1 earnings

        • -6.4% SDG.FP (Synergie €33.15, -2.20) -- H1 earnings

        • -6.3% CHEMM.DC (ChemoMetec DKK354.00, -23.00) -- initiated hold at Nordea

        • -6.2% RE.LN (R.E.A. Holdings £0.52, -0.03) -- H1 earnings

        • -6.2% BFSA.GR (Befesa €28.46, -1.84) -- initiated hold at Deutsche Bank

        • -5.9% CPH2.LN (Clean Power Hydrogen £0.20, -0.01) -- H1 earnings

        • -5.4% RMS.FP (Hermes €1,833.40, -102.00) -- Oddo downgrade

        • -4.8% PRX.NA (Prosus €27.86, -1.40) -- UBS Note on defensive positioning into 2024 citing correlation between stocks rising, which may increase volatility across the market.

        • -4.4% IRE.IM (Iren €0.00, -0.09) -- submits binding offer to acquire Egea's assets and equity stakes for an undisclosed sum

        • -3.9% OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu €4.02, -0.16) -- Deutsche Bank downgrade

        • -3.9% AR4.GR (AURELIUS Equity Opportunities €12.31, -0.50) -- lower dividend

        • -3.5% KOO.LN (Kooth £2.96, -0.11) -- H1 earnings

        • -2.1% TNG.FP (Transgene €1.75, -0.04) -- H1 earnings

        • -1.6% FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo £0.77, -0.01) -- restrictions on Corporate Rights in two subsidiaries

        • -0.3% CFR.SW (Richemont CHF116.35, -0.35) -- Oddo upgrade

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings: Medacta Group (MOVE.SW)

      • Trading Update: Investec (INVP.LN)

      • Investor Meeting: The Artisanal Spirits Co. (ART.LN)

Data:

  • Economics:

    • France Sep Business Survey 99 vs consensus 97 and prior revised 97 from 96

    • Netherlands Aug Unemployment Rate 3.6% vs consensus 3.6% and prior 3.6%

    • Spain Jul Trade Balance (€4.9B) vs consensus (€3.40B) and prior (€2.36B)

    • Eurozone Sep flash Consumer Confidence (17.8) vs consensus (16.5) and prior (16.0)

  • Markets:

    • WTI Crude (Nov 23): +$0.71 or +0.79% to $90.37

    • €-$ +0.0002 or +0.02% to 1.0664

    • £-$ (0.0049) or (0.40%) to 1.2295

    • €-£ +0.0037 to 0.8674

    • S&P 500 (0.99%)

    • Performance year-to-date

      • FTSE 100: +3.04%

      • DAX: +11.84%

      • CAC: +11.43%

      • MIB: +21.13%

      • Stoxx 600: +7.01%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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